Republicans lead in several crucial races that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and they appear to be on the verge of ensuring that President-elect Donald Trump will enter his second term with a trifecta.
A political party has a trifecta if it controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. With the White House and Senate secured, all attention is now on the race for the House—a race that Republicans seem poised to win.
As of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 6, The Associated Press projected Republicans to win at least 201 seats, and Democrats had at least 186 seats called in their favor. Fifty races had yet to be called.
A minimum of 218 seats is required to claim the majority, though either party would find it difficult to govern with such a low margin—as Republicans learned during the current Congress, when ideological splits between the centrist and conservative wings of the party tanked many bills brought to the floor.
While the battle for control of the House is technically outstanding, there are strong indicators that Republicans are on track to retain their current majority, although by how much remains unclear.
That call comes as Republicans lead in their races across several key districts, most notably Pennsylvania and California.
There are currently about 20 races in which Republicans are leading; should they ultimately retain those margins, they'll enter the 119th Congress with at least the minimum number of seats needed for a majority.
Nevertheless, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) insisted on Nov. 6 that the race isn’t over yet, saying, “The House remains very much in play.”
Jeffries, the front-runner to become speaker should Democrats reclaim the lower chamber, said: “The party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined. We must count every vote.”
Key Races So Far
Several key races have already been called.Republicans picked up a seat in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District, abandoned by Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin to pursue a seat in the Senate.
In nearby Pennsylvania, they appear poised to unseat two incumbent Democrats, Reps. Matthew Cartwright and Susan Wild, with 99 percent of the vote counted.
Meanwhile, Democrats have so far managed to unseat at least two Republicans, Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams, both from New York. They seem well-positioned to also unseat Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, also of New York, as Democrats lead by 2 points with 98 percent of the vote counted in that race.
Otherwise, most incumbents have hung on so far.
On the GOP side, Reps. Jen Kiggans (Virginia), Scott Perry (Pennsylvania), Marienette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), and Don Bacon (Nebraska) appear set to hold onto their seats with 99 percent of the vote counted, although AP hasn’t made a final call on the races.
Other Republicans in swing districts, such as Reps. John James (Michigan), Thomas Kean Jr. (New Jersey), Zachary Nunn (Iowa), and Mike Lawler (New York) have already been declared the winners in their races.
On the Democrat side, incumbent Reps. Emilia Sykes (Ohio), Gabe Vasquez (New Mexico), and Pat Ryan (New York) are projected to hold off Republican challengers.
Too Close to Call
Many districts, particularly in the western United States, remain too close to call.One of the most important states where results are still coming in is California.
The Golden State was crucial to Republicans’ narrow reclaiming of the House in 2022 and will be crucial this year as well.
Currently, with about 50 percent to 70 percent of the vote counted, Republicans enjoy a lead in all six of the contests considered key races by The Associated Press.
Five of these districts are currently held by Republicans, including Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel.
Republican Scott Baugh also currently leads in California’s 47th Congressional District, a seat abandoned by Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, to pursue an ultimately failed Senate bid. It’s unclear whether the seat will ultimately flip to GOP hands.
Meanwhile, Democrats in several Republican districts are in close fights to keep their seats.
Rep. Jared Golden (Maine-2) faces one of the most difficult battles. Despite distancing himself from Vice President Kamala Harris and the Biden administration, Golden’s district is largely rural and highly Republican, with Trump currently leading by 9 points in the district with 90 percent of the vote counted.
With 89 percent of the vote counted, Golden leads by less than 1 point.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Washington), a freshman lawmaker who achieved an unexpected victory over Republican Joe Kent in 2022, is also seeking to hold off a fresh challenge from Kent. She currently leads by 4 percent, but only 59 percent of the vote has been counted so far in the ancestrally red district.
The case is much the same for Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska’s at-large congressional district.
She won an upset victory over former Gov. Sarah Palin in a 2022 special election, a victory often attributed to the state’s controversial ranked-choice voting method. Peltola later was able to retain the seat in the 2022 election, winning the backing of figures such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).
Currently, Republican Nick Begich leads Peltola by 4 points, but ranked-choice voting makes it difficult to predict the final outcome. With 76 percent of the vote counted, Begich is just 0.3 points shy of the 50 percent margin needed to ensure a victory in the first round of voting.
The Stakes
Control of the House is essential for Trump to carry out his policy agenda, particularly on issues such as taxes, health care, and other legislative priorities.For Democrats, it’s the only remaining hope they have of stopping another Republican trifecta, as the GOP achieved in 2016.
Historically, close House contests have been affected by the performance of the presidential nominee at the top of the ticket. It has been decades since a party has won the White House without also winning the House. It most recently occurred under President George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Going into Election Day, Johnson aspired to increase his party’s relatively thin majority in the lower chamber, which Republicans reclaimed in 2023 after a four-year stint in the minority. If current margins hold, he may be on track to fall short of those aspirations.
Republicans’ current majority of 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 has left Johnson with little wiggle room on important votes, able to spare only four defections.
Many of his decisions have been unpopular with the powerful conservative flank of the GOP House conference—raising the risk that he may struggle to win reelection as speaker, which he has indicated he intends to seek.
Democrats, who controlled the lower chamber from 2019 to 2023, hope to take it back and name Jeffries as speaker.
Both parties have seen House elections that ended in huge gains for one party or the other—such as the Democrats’ sweeping victory in 2008 led by then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and the Republicans’ massive victory in the 2014 midterm elections.
But this year, control of the House is expected to be close either way. While Republicans seem poised to keep the lower chamber, it remains unclear how much they'll be able to boost their margins.
