Here Are the Uncalled House Races That Will Determine Control of the Chamber

The U.S. House of Representatives chamber at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 5, 2023. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

As the last remaining votes are tallied nationwide, several key House races that are yet to be called will decide which party controls the chamber in 2025.

As of Saturday evening, The Associated Press still hasn’t called 20 seats in 10 states. The current status has Republicans leading Democrats by 213 seats to 202. A majority is reached at 218 seats.

If the current margins endure once all votes are counted, Republicans could net 11 more seats, for a total of 224. Democrats could add 9 seats, for a total of 211 as the new Congress is sworn in next year.

The current House of Representatives has 220 Republican seats, 212 Democratic, and three vacancies.

Midwest, South, and Northeast Races

Incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) is fending off her Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan for Iowa’s 1st congressional district race. Miller-Meeks is leading by fewer than 1,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, with 99 percent of the votes counted.

In Louisiana, an interesting race is playing out for the state’s 6th congressional district. Because Louisiana uses a majority-vote system, all candidates compete in the same primary, and a single candidate can win outright in that race by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote totals.

With the open primary occurring on Election Day, Democrat Cleo Fields is currently leading the pack with 50.8 percent with 99 percent of the vote tallied. He is followed by Republican Elbert Guillory in second place with 37.8 percent. If Fields keeps his lead, it would be a pickup seat for Democrats, as it’s currently held by incumbent Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), who did not seek reelection this year.

Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is leading by slightly more than 1,000 votes against Republican Austin Theriault in the race for Maine’s 2nd congressional district. More than 98 percent of the vote has been tallied.

California, Oregon, Washington

Many of California’s districts have a significant number of ballots left to be counted before key House races can be called.

In the 9th district, incumbent Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is leading Republican Kevin Lincoln by 2.4 percent with 64 percent of the votes tallied. Incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is ahead of Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th district by 2.5 percent, with 62 percent of ballots counted.

With roughly 63 percent of votes counted in California’s 21st congressional district, incumbent Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) leads by 1 percent. Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) is ahead of Democrat George Whitesides by less than 1,000 votes in the 27th district, and 23 percent of ballots still need to be tallied.

Another incumbent, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), is leading in his race for California’s 22nd congressional district, ahead of Democrat Rudy Salas by 9 percent with 66 percent of the votes counted. Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) currently leads by a similar 11.6 percent in the 39th district against Republican David Serpa, with slightly more than half of the votes counted.

In the 41st district, incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif) leads Democrat Will Rollins by 2.8 percent, with another 43 percent of votes to be processed. Incumbent Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) is also ahead of his Republican challenger, Matt Gunderson, in the state’s 49th district with 20 percent of votes left uncounted. Levin leads by 3.2 percent.

Roughly 76 percent of the votes have been counted in California’s 45th congressional district, and incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) is leading Democrat Derek Tran by 3 percent.

Incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) ran in the nonpartisan primary for the U.S. Senate, losing to now Senator-elect Adam Schiff, a Democrat, and Republican Steve Garvey. Porter is vacating her seat in California’s 47th district, and Democrat Dave Min is now leading Republican Scott Baugh by 0.4 percent with 79 percent of the vote counted.

In Oregon’s 5th district, incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) is behind her Democratic challenger Janelle Bynum by 2.5 percent with 17 percent of votes left to be tallied.

Washington’s 4th district will go to a Republican as both incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) and Republican Jerrod Sessler advanced from the top-two primary earlier this year. Newhouse leads by 4.6 percent.

Arizona, Colorado, Alaska

In Arizona, incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is ahead in the 1st district by 4.4 percent over Democrat Amish Shah, with another 11 percent of ballots left to count.

In Arizona’s 4th district, which includes Phoenix, incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) is ahead of Republican challenger Kelly Cooper by a 6.5 percent margin with 89 percent of votes counted.

Arizona’s 6th district has incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) up by 0.5 percent over Democrat Kirsten Engel with 76 percent of ballots processed.

The Republican challenger, Gabe Evans, is ahead of incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) by 0.6 percent in Colorado’s 8th congressional district as another 14 percent of votes still need to be counted.

Outside of the contiguous United States, in Alaska’s 1st congressional district, Republican Nick Begich is leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) 49.5 percent to 45.4 percent with 76 percent of votes currently processed. Unless one candidate appears as the first choice on a majority of ballots, the election will advance to ranked-choice voting.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.