GOP Ahead in 9 Key Election Predictors: Gallup

(Left) Vice President Kamala Harris in Philadelphia on Sept. 17, 2024. (Right) Former President Donald Trump holds a campaign event in Flint, Mich., on Sept. 17, 2024. Win McNamee, Scott Olson/Getty Images

Republicans are ahead in nine of 10 key measures that have historically predicted elections, Gallup said on Sept. 24.

The Republican Party was identified as the party better able to handle the problem respondents think is most important, better able to keep America prosperous, and better able to keep America safe from international threats by a plurality or majority of voters in a Gallup poll conducted from Sept. 3 through Sept. 15.

The Republican Party also enjoyed a slight favorability lead of 1 percent over the Democratic Party among respondents.

Another set of key predictors centers on confidence in areas such as the economy.

Just 22 percent of respondents listed themselves as currently satisfied, many said they’re not confident in the economy, and just 39 percent said they approve of the job being done by President Joe Biden, whose vice president, Kamala Harris, is vying with former President Donald Trump in the presidential race.

A majority of respondents also said they prefer less government activity.

Gallup also took an average of poll results from July through September and found a plurality of respondents identify as Republican or lean Republican.

“Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party,” the analytics and polling firm said as it described the results.

The only measure that did not favor Republicans was congressional job approval. Only one in five respondents said they approve of the job Congress is doing, but each party controls one chamber at this time.

“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” Gallup said, although it noted that its September poll and other surveys have indicated that Harris and Trump have similar favorability ratings and that the race appears to be “neck-and-neck.”

The Harris and Trump campaigns, the Republican National Committee, and the Democratic National Committee did not respond to requests for comment.

An average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics as of Wednesday has Harris ahead by 2.1 percentage points nationally but Trump ahead by 0.2 percentage points across all top battleground states including Pennsylvania.

The current electoral map shows Trump winning 219 electoral votes, Harris winning 215, and the remaining 104 being too close to project, according to the company.

Trump won the 2016 election with 304 electoral votes. Biden won the 2020 election with 306 electoral votes. To win, a candidate must receive a majority of the votes.