Foreign Actors Seek to Shape and Influence US Elections, Intelligence Community Warns

People vote at a Manhattan polling station during the New York state presidential primary election, on April 2, 2024. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

U.S. foreign adversaries will recruit Americans and use other tactics to influence the elections in November to advance their interests, a July 29 security update from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has warned.

“Foreign actors continue to rely on witting and unwitting Americans to seed, promote, and add credibility to narratives that serve the foreign actors’ interests. These foreign actors seek to take advantage of these Americans to spread messaging through their channels and engagements,” according to the ODNI’s update.

The report said the intelligence community expects foreign actors to adjust their influence operations in response to “this month’s developments to promote influence narratives seeking to undermine democratic institutions, foment discord, and/or change public opinion.”

In the last couple of weeks, the race to the White House has seen significant developments, including the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. Officials did not specifically mention these developments in the update.

The update noted that the Chinese communist regime, Russia, and Iran are using influence campaigns “to influence the politics and policies of the United States to benefit their interests and undermine U.S. democracy and Washington’s standing in the world.” These adversaries also refine their strategies to hide their involvement.

Beijing Influence Operations

The ODNI update warns that the Chinese communist regime will seek to disparage candidates that it views as threats to Beijing’s core interests. Beijing already used the same tactics in a “handful” of 2022 midterm elections where candidates from both parties were targeted, according to the update.

“The [intelligence community] is also aware that PRC influence actors are using social media to sow divisions in the United States and portray democracies as chaotic,” the update notes, using an acronym for communist China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

“The PRC’s Government entities have collaborated with a China-based technology company to enhance the PRC’s covert online influence operations, including to more efficiently create content that also connects with local audiences,” Monday’s update states.

During the U.S. midterm election cycle in 2022, Beijing’s propaganda arm used TikTok accounts to influence candidates, the ODNI said in a previous report.

The annual threats assessment by the U.S. intelligence community, published in February, found that the Chinese communist regime may attempt to influence the 2024 U.S. elections at some level to suppress critics and amplify societal divisions. CCP actors have improved their capabilities to disseminate disinformation, according to the report.

“The PRC aims to sow doubts about U.S. leadership, undermine democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence. Beijing’s information operations primarily focus on promoting pro-China narratives, refuting U.S.-promoted narratives, and countering U.S. and other countries’ policies that threaten Beijing’s interests, including China’s international image, access to markets, and technological expertise,” the assessment found.

Russian Campaigns

The update said the intelligence community also noted that Russia poses a threat to the November U.S. elections, as Moscow continues to employ a range of influence tactics and actors to extend its reach and produce content that impresses U.S. audiences.

“These actors are seeking to back a presidential candidate in addition to influencing congressional electoral outcomes, undermine public confidence in the electoral process, and exacerbate sociopolitical divisions,” the report reads.  

According to the report, foreign actors hire marketing and public relations companies, which offer expertise in a wide range of services with more agility and fewer bureaucratic hurdles than government agencies. Moscow uses Russia-based firms “to shape public opinion in the United States, including with election-related operations. These firms have created influence platforms, directly and discreetly engaged Americans, and used improved tools to tailor content for U.S. audiences, while hiding Russia’s hand.”

In March, a Kremlin spokesperson said Russia “never interfered in elections in the United States” and isn’t planning to interfere in the upcoming elections in November.

During a congressional hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee in May about “Foreign Threats to the 2024 Elections,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said, “Russia remains the most active foreign threat to our elections. The Russian government’s goals in such influence operations tend to include eroding trust in U.S. democratic institutions, exacerbating sociopolitical divisions in the United States, and degrading Western support to Ukraine.”

Ms. Haines also told the committee that Beijing aims to advance support for the regime’s policy positions, and warned about the Chinese regime’s tech capabilities for their influence operations. “[T]he PRC also has a sophisticated influence apparatus through which they leverage emerging technologies, including generative AI, and they are growing increasingly confident in their ability to influence elections globally,” Ms. Haines said.