Florida’s chief financial officer warned Hurricane Milton could cause damage totaling up to $20 billion in the state as the Category 4 storm continues to churn toward the Florida Gulf Coast.
Milton is forecast to strike near the Tampa Bay area late Wednesday or early Thursday, according to forecast models from the National Hurricane Center. While it has weakened from a category 5, officials say the storm is expected to hit the state as a major hurricane, meaning a Category 3 or greater.
Jimmy Patronis, the state’s CFO and fire marshal, told Fox Business that the expected damage is contingent on the exact location of where the storm makes landfall.
“It really depends on how the impact and damage of the storm is. Right now, as the path of the storm that is proposed, you’re looking at somewhere north of $10 [billion], maybe $20 billion worth of insured losses,” he said on Tuesday.
“The carriers in the state of Florida, they have been able to raise the type of capital in order to handle the storm. We’ve got nine new companies coming into the state.”
Insurance rates for certain locations in Florida are likely to see a rise after Milton hits. But Patronis said there will be a post-Milton “rebate system in place” to help homeowners and property owners.
“The individual has to apply before March 1 in order to get that rebate back. If your home is not as [valuable] as it was pre-storm, then you should be paying taxes on a home that was not harmed. So if your home was harmed, you will have a discount,” he said.
State and federal officials have warned Milton could be the most destructive hurricane to hit the Tampa area, home to more than 3 million people, in more than 100 years. Officials around Tampa have warned residents in multiple counties to evacuate this week, noting that storm surge could be more than 10 feet in some locations.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told a news conference on Wednesday that “unfortunately, there will be some fatalities,” adding, “I don’t think there’s any way around that.”
Insured losses could reach at least tens of billions of dollars, with the potential for more than $75 billion in losses if the storm directly hits Tampa as a Category 3 or stronger storm, according to an estimate from BMO Capital Markets.
The ratings agency Moody’s estimates insured losses from Helene could reach up to $14 billion. Flood insurance is typically excluded from most homeowners’ policies, and the U.S. government administers most of the nation’s flood insurance. Moody’s estimates the National Flood Insurance Program’s losses from Helene could reach $2 billion.
Milton will also be making landfall in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which caused havoc across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. Unlike Milton’s expected path, Helene hit a much less-populated area.
Inland areas at higher elevations, especially in western North Carolina, faced catastrophic flooding, and many homeowners lacked flood insurance. That will limit the number of claims to be paid out.
Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into New Orleans and the surrounding Gulf Coast in 2005, was the costliest storm to ever hit the United States. Insured losses measured $102 billion after adjusting for inflation, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
Insured losses from Category 4 Hurricane Ian, which hit the West Coast of Florida in September 2022, were estimated at more than $50 billion.
Meanwhile, the state is focused on getting search and rescue efforts underway after the storm hits Florida, Patronis told Fox Business.
“We’ve got resources in from all corners of the country, 1,200 urban search and rescue first responders preparing to deploy out as soon as the storm passes,” he said.
