Florida Braces for 15-Foot Storm Surge From Hurricane Idalia

'Run from the water, then hide from the wind'

Members of the Tampa, Fla., Parks and Recreation Department help residents load sandbags in Tampa, Fla., on Aug. 28, 2023. (Chris O'Meara/AP Photo)

As Floridians all along the Gulf Coast braced for the arrival of Hurricane Idalia, they were warned of catastrophic wind, rain, and storm surges.

The National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 p.m. advisory on Tuesday, Aug. 29, stated that the now-Category 2 storm will raise sea levels in coastal areas and river levels by as much as 15 feet. Local officials warned their residents that the situation could get worse with the storm’s possible alignment with the ongoing king tide.

The Big Bend Gulf Coast is expected to get 10–15 feet of storm surge. That means any homes with a ground floor at sea level could be completely underwater.

Stretching out from the Big Bend, the entire Nature Coast is expected to see a minimum 7-foot storm surge.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay and its surrounding Gulf Coast from Longboat Key to the south and the Anclote River to the north is predicted to get 4–7 feet of storm surge.

Storm surge warnings cover Florida’s entire coastline from Apalachicola to Englewood (south of Venice), and storm surge watches remain in effect for Port Charlotte and Cape Coral.

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“This storm is very strong and is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall due to high surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said. “This means heavy winds, high winds, heavy rain, and a forecasted 12-foot storm surge in some of the areas along the western coast.”

Storm surge, she said, “is one of the highest risk parts of a hurricane” and is especially dangerous for Florida’s Gulf Coast due to the river water geography of the landscape and the rapidly shallowing coastline.

“This storm will be deadly if we don’t get out of harm’s way,” she said. “So, I ask all Floridians to be vigilant and heed the warnings of their local officials.”

‘Run From the Water’

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other officials have adopted the term “run from the water, then hide from the wind.”

A state of emergency has now been issued for 49 of Florida’s 67 counties. Mandatory evacuations in low-level areas have been called in more than 15 counties, including Dixie, Taylor, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco. And voluntary evacuations have been called in another 10.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Idalia moving northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, at 12:40 p.m. ET on Aug. 29, 2023. (CIRA/NOAA)

“You run from the water, and you hide from the wind,” he said. “You’re there in that storm surge area, you’re putting your life in jeopardy when it gets to be that high. So, if you’re given those orders, please heed those orders.”

The island town of Cedar Key has been anticipated to be at the center of the impact. Commissioner Sue Colson issued a mandatory evacuation for all 900 residents, and more than a dozen state troopers went door to door warning residents about the possible 15-foot storm surge, according to The Associated Press.

“One word: Leave,” Ms. Colson said. “It’s not something to discuss.”

Storm surge is one of the major reasons why Tampa International Airport (TPA) decided to close for multiple days. The airport ceased all operations beginning at 7:00 a.m. on Aug. 29, and does not expect to reopen until Thursday morning.

“The weather experts tell us we’re looking at a storm surge of four to seven feet at high tide, which has the potential to bring water on the airport,” said TPA’s executive vice president of airport operations and customer service, John Tiliacos. “We’re taking all of the measures that we need to to make sure we mitigate as best we can the impact of water on to the airport. That means making sure that our drainage system is clear both on the airfield and in our terminal areas.”

Post-Storm Surge

Weather experts and local authorities have also been warning residents that the worst of the storm surge can be expected after the storm passed.

In and around Tampa Bay, the king tide coming from the current “blue supermoon” is expected to bring a smaller high tide in the early hours of the morning and then a much larger high tide in the mid-afternoon.

In anticipation of Tropical Storm Idalia's projected landfall as a hurricane, Alachua County residents fill sandbags at a makeshift public works station in Alachua, Fla., on Aug. 28, 2023. (Courtesy of Ray Holt)

“We don’t want anyone to wake up, see the blue skies, and think that we are done with Idalia,” said City of Tampa Mayor Jane Castor. “That is not the case. And that probably will be the most critical element tomorrow will be that storm surge, especially if it comes in with that king tide–that higher tide caused by the full moon.

“And so we want everyone to be very, very cognizant of that and ensure that you remain aware of the updates as the hurricane comes through.”

Hurricane Ian, 2022’s Category 5 storm that decimated Ft. Myers and the rest of Lee County, as well as much of Central Florida, delivered a storm surge over 15 feet high and over 24 inches of rain. Nearly 20,000 structures were destroyed or severely damaged.

The Tampa Bay area has not taken a direct hit from a hurricane since 1921.

John Haughey and The Associated Press contributed to this report.