Fewer Holiday Shoppers Expected This Year: Report

A crowd gathers inside South Coast Plaza, the largest shopping mall in California, in Costa Mesa, Calif., on May 15, 2018. Ryan Miller/Getty Images for Coach

More than 166 million shoppers are expected to hit the stores Thanksgiving weekend, the National Retail Federation reported on Nov. 17.

This would mean retailers could see fewer customers than last year. However, the actual number of holiday shoppers has exceeded similar forecasts in the past.

Last year, nearly 180 million shoppers made in-store and online purchases during the holiday weekend, reaching beyond the retail federation’s initial expectations by over 21 million. That was slightly less than the 186 million holiday shoppers in 2020.

“We are optimistic that retail sales will remain strong in the weeks ahead, and retailers are ready to meet consumers however they want to shop with great products at prices they want to pay,” the association’s President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release.

About 70 percent of holiday shoppers planned to shop during the Thanksgiving weekend, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics.

Most people surveyed said they planned to shop were because the deals were too good to pass up. Shopping after Thanksgiving was also a tradition, or it was something to do over the four-day weekend, they reported.

Black Friday is expected to be the most popular day to shop, with 69 percent planning to shop the day after Thanksgiving.

About 38 percent said they would shop on Cyber Monday. Of the 114.9 million Black Friday shoppers, 67 percent said they expected to shop at stores instead of online, which was up from 64 percent last year.

Sixty percent of holiday shoppers have already started browsing and buying for the holidays. This trend was accelerated by the pandemic, the retail federation said.

“While consumers continue to save the bulk of their holiday shopping for later in November and December, some of that spending has shifted into October,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said in a release.

This year, 18 percent of holiday shoppers have completed at least half of their holiday shopping. This was on par with last year’s trends, Rist said.

Gift List

Fifty-five percent of the shoppers surveyed said they were planning to buy clothes. Gift cards were the second-most popular gift item, followed by toys, books, music, movies, video games, and food or candy.

Consumers are expected to spend about $28.6 billion on gift cards this year, compared to $28.1 billion in 2021. Most of those cards will be for restaurants, department stores, or a bank-issued gift card, according to the survey. About 10 percent of respondents said they planned to give a food-delivery service gift card.

The most popular toys to buy for boys this year were Lego, the survey showed.

Hot Wheels came in second, followed by cars and trucks, PlayStation, video games, Pokémon, Nerf, remote-controlled cars, dinosaurs, and Xbox.

For girls, the top toys were Barbie, followed by dolls, Lego, makeup, Squishmallows, American Girl dolls and apparel, Disney-related items, baby dolls, cell phones, and Magic Mixies.

The National Retail Federation forecasted earlier this month that holiday sales during November and December would grow between 6 to 8 percent compared to 2021.