In 2023, according to the United States Postal Service change-of-address data, nine of the ten neighborhoods in New York State that lost the most population were in the City of Buffalo.
Its 2024 population stands at 273,768, declining by 0.49 percent annually. But those numbers represent a slow drip compared to the total departure of residents in what was a thriving hub of manufacturing in the 1950s. Buffalo’s population has declined by 52.3 percent since then, or 303,325.
With weather that includes arctic cold and lake effect snow, dumping an average of 95 inches a year, making the city the snowiest in the country, it may come as a surprise that the future of Buffalo’s population may reside with its influx of legal immigration from much more arid lands.
“In basically the last four or five years, the population is starting to come back and a lot of that is tied to immigration. Buffalo now has one of the largest numbers of immigrants in the last decade, which has allowed the population to grow. Folks from the Middle East, Somalia, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia have come here and brought their families with them over the years,” said Frederick Floss, co-director of the Center for Economic Education at SUNY Buffalo.
“The city has long been known for its food and has gotten a lot better with immigrant-owned restaurants,” he told The Epoch Times.
“Immigrants and refugees are reclaiming neighborhoods that were pretty much abandoned at one point. They’re just lightening up the city and adding real value. The thing that they are really adding value about, though, is making Buffalo a cultural hub,” WEDI External Relations Director Erin St. John Kelly told WKBW 7.
Empty Offices
But like many cities across the country, Buffalo is also dealing with a struggling downtown due to empty office space. According to the latest statistics from CBRE Upstate NY, the City of Buffalo’s occupancy in 2023 is down nearly 16 percent from 2022. There is a concern that decisions not to renew leases in the next year will result in a lack of necessary services for area residents.
“Even if only 30 percent of the population works from home, compared to 5 percent to 10 percent before the pandemic, what will happen to the downtown long term? Property tax income will go down and what will the services be?” Mr. Floss said. “One of the things that’s allowed Buffalo to be consistent in the job market is we still have a lot of auto workers.”
A Boost From Auto Jobs
The city was given a couple of big breaks on the auto front, with only one parts supplier affected by the United Auto Workers strike in 2023 and General Motors’ (GM) announcement that it will be sinking $300 million into its Tonawanda engine plant 20 minutes north. In addition, GM also has a plant in Lockport, a 35-minute drive from the city, producing vehicle components and EV battery cooling lines.In 2007, Harvard University Professor of Economics Edward Glaeser penned an article titled “Can Buffalo Ever Come Back,” in which he called the city “one of America’s fastest dying cities.”
In reflection, Mr. Glaeser told The Epoch Times that that assessment may have been a little harsh.
“I’m a much older gentleman and I wouldn’t say that now,” he said, admitting he took a lot of heat for that article, which also concluded that Buffalo is a much better city now that it’s smaller. “There is a built-in labor demand there and workers will move to Buffalo if there are jobs. The city has had a long decline, but it doesn’t seem today that it’s an immediate crisis.”
The largest employer in Buffalo is the healthcare industry, with Kaleida Health, Catholic Health Systems, and Roswell Park Cancer Institute representing three of the city’s top eight employers with a combined 19,000 employees, and the sector is growing. That rapid growth is concerning to Mr. Floss.
“There’s been a decline in the number of employees available for hospitals, like doctors and nurses. Cleveland Clinic is moving into the area to add to the healthcare here and that’s taking some jobs away from Western New York,” he said.
The Bills Move Downtown
The city is also trying to figure out how to revitalize its downtown and, as with any discussion of Buffalo, its rabid support of the NFL’s Buffalo Bills football team is always in the news. The team is currently building a new 60,000-seat $1.5 billion downtown stadium, which is being heralded as the largest economic development project in Western New York History.According to the Associated Press, it’s the largest public commitment ever for the construction of an NFL facility. But the taxpayer investment and the decision to move the stadium downtown from its current Orchard Park suburban location is being seen by some as a bad idea.
Mr. Floss, for one, says the location and projected downtown revenue are a mixed bag. “It’s not like a baseball stadium. We’re talking about eight total games. Putting 60,000 people in the location they’re suggesting is not ideal,” he said. “At the (current) Orchard Park site, you have roads in all directions. Some people said, well, if they move it downtown, you’ll have all this economic activity around it. I’m not one of those people.”
So, with a struggling population, brutal winter weather, and job flux, why do people stay in Buffalo?
“In Buffalo, it’s about families,” Mr. Floss said. “It’s a small Chicago and still very family oriented with relatively inexpensive housing and good education options for students.”
