Everything We Know About Milton: Major Hurricane Forecast to Hit Florida This Week

A map posted by the Naitonal Hurricane Center on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, shows Tropical Storm Milton's track. It's expected to become a major hurricane later this week before hitting Florida.

Hurricane Milton, which formed over the weekend, is anticipated to hit Florida as a major hurricane later this week, according to U.S. weather officials.

An advisory on Sunday morning from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Milton, a Category 1 storm that is currently located in the southwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to intensify as it moves to the northeast over the gulf waters before hitting Florida’s western coast by midweek.

Where Is Milton Expected to Hit?

While forecast models vary widely, the most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday just north of Tampa Bay and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, largely sparing other southeastern states ravaged by Hurricane Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from Florida into the Appalachian mountains and a death toll that hit 230 people by Sunday.

The effects of Milton will likely hit the Big Bend and Panhandle areas, according to the NHC, including heavy rain, winds, and storm surge.

“Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week,” the hurricane center warned in an update earlier on Sunday.

Hurricane Helene hammered Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle areas as a Category 4 storm late last month and passed north into Georgia, the Carolinas, and Tennessee.

When Will It Make Landfall in Florida?

The storm is anticipated to hit Florida’s western coast by sometime later on Wednesday or possibly early Thursday, according to the NHC model. However, storm surge, winds, and rain will arrive before then.

No hurricane or tropical storm advisories have been issued for anywhere in Florida or the rest of the United States. Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for the northern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

How Strong?

The storm is expected to be a “major” hurricane, meaning a Category 3 storm or greater, and it could hit Florida’s western coastline with that level of intensity, the NHC forecasting model suggests.

A Category 3 storm has winds of 111–129 mph and can cause “devastating damage,” according to the hurricane center. A Category 4 has winds of 130–156 mph, which can cause “catastrophic damage,” and a Category 5 has winds of 157 mph or more, the center says.

“A major hurricane is the most likely outcome,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters on Sunday. “This is not a good track for the state of Florida.”

NHC forecasters state that Milton is likely going to be a small-sized hurricane, although there is still considerable uncertainty.

“First, Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very rapidly,” forecasters wrote Sunday morning. “Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable environment through about 60 (hours), it will encounter strong [wind] shear and dry air” that could weaken the storm further, they added.

“Third, the proximity of a frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at some point during the forecast period,” they added.

In an update published six hours later on Sunday, the NHC said that Milton is “strengthening” because a “large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle” of the system.

Will It Impact the Carolinas or Helene-Hit Areas?

The storm isn’t expected to follow a similar track to Hurricane Helene, which formed outside the Gulf of Mexico in the Caribbean Sea before moving north and then to the northwest, slamming the Florida Peninsula and Big Bend areas. After landfall, Helene passed over Georgia, the Carolinas, and Tennessee, causing significant flooding damage in western North Carolina that will likely be felt for years.

After Milton makes landfall in Florida, it will pass across the state to the east-northeast before emerging somewhere in northeastern Florida and then moving east across the Atlantic Ocean. The storm isn’t forecast to produce impacts in any other state, the NHC model shows.

How Much Rain?

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with some localized totals of 12 inches, are expected across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The rainfall totals for Milton, according to an Oct. 6, 2024, update from US weather officials. National Hurricane Center

What Is FEMA’s Response?

FEMA Director Deanne Criswell told ABC News that her agency is already preparing for Milton, well before it’s clear exactly where it will move across the Florida peninsula this week.

“We’re working with the state there to understand what their requirements are going to be, so we can have those in place before it makes landfall,” she said Sunday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.