The automotive financing market may be under stress as several experts call for a massive wave of repossessions in early 2023, with prominent figures such as Tesla founder Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood sounding the alarm about the potential effects on financial markets.
“I’m now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.”
He went on to explain that many people had no choice but to buy a costly car during the pandemic. He said car values have been falling recently, with some dropping by nearly 30 percent year over year.
“And these same people that took out these big loans are now ‘underwater.’ Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth,” he stated, adding that the banks are well-aware of the problem.
CarDealershipGuy, who wished to remain anonymous, told The Epoch Times that many of these underwater borrowers are attempting to purchase additional vehicles, despite having unpaid debts on their prior auto loans. He is hearing that 35 to 40 percent of new subprime applicants already have outstanding debt, he said.
Normally, banks would consider this a warning sign and refuse the loan, but the dealer said that 65 percent of his associated lenders are issuing the loans anyways.
“I’ve been in the business for a decade and this is completely unprecedented.”
When asked about whether large institutional banks are involved in this lending, he said, “Some of the big household names that you and I know are participating in this.”
He described the dynamic further on Twitter.
“The lender lets the consumer buy the car KNOWING that they already have an open auto loan with another bank!” the dealer wrote. He suggests that banks are making this choice strategically, assuming that customers will default on their previous loan—issued by a competing bank—but continue making payments on the more recent one.
Declining Values
CarDealershipGuy’s Twitter thread caught the attention of Cathie Wood, head of the investment management firm Ark Invest, who expressed concerns about “the impact of declining residual values on the $1+ trillion auto loan market.”Musk responded to Wood’s tweet, echoing the same concerns.
Ticking Time Bomb
As The Epoch Times reported in November, the post-COVID boom and corresponding semiconductor shortage caused car prices to explode throughout 2020 and 2021.“The dealers started calling banks, ‘Hey man, I got to sell this for 150 percent, 160 percent of LTV [loan-to-value] … Can you do this?’ and banks that traditionally wouldn’t, started doing it,” Lopez said, paraphrasing the industry dynamics he had witnessed.
The lack of sales is causing a supply glut, which is a ticking time bomb, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
She predicts that regulators will step in at some point and question why lenders haven’t liquidated the cars and force them to sell. Booth added that this “is what regulators did in the housing crisis.”
“They’re going to make them clean those loans off their books, and then we’ll see used car prices fall.”