Egg Futures Jump Nearly 100 Percent Since October

Chickens and eggs, in a file photo. David Silverman/Getty Images

Egg prices in the futures market have almost doubled in a few weeks, driven by ongoing bird flu outbreaks that continue to impact supply, coupled with frozen egg storage volumes remaining lower than last year.

Contract prices for a dozen eggs increased from $2.11 in early October to $4.16 by late November, an increase of more than 97 percent in less than two months.

At the retail level, the average price for a dozen eggs rose from $2.52 in January to $3.37 in October, an increase of more than 33 percent, according to U.S. city average prices tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

“Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in California over the past week has led to the loss of 1.5 million [egg-laying hens], tightening supplies, and strengthening market prices,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a Nov. 29 report.

Data from the agency show that there were 377 million egg-laying birds in October, which is down by 3 percent from last year. Fewer egg-laying hens mean fewer eggs, which increases prices. The volume of frozen eggs in storage is down by 22 percent from November 2023 and is at its lowest level since spring 2023.

Thanksgiving demand for eggs was the lowest since 2015, the USDA said. However, “with one less week between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, wholesale demand, which normally experiences a short decline in the immediate post-Thanksgiving period, is expected to hold in anticipation of the start of the December cookie baking season,” the report stated.

The latest wave of bird flu is disrupting supplies of cage-free eggs. California, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon all require eggs sold in their states to be cage-free.

This has meant a shuffling of product from other parts of the United States to those states, according to American Egg Board President Emily Metz.

“We’re having to move eggs from other areas of the country that are producing cage-free to cover that low supply in those states, because those states only allow for cage-free eggs to be sold,” she said.

Chad Hart, a professor and agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said the egg industry is working to rebuild the flock but that this can also limit supplies because farmers need to hold back some eggs to hatch into new chickens.

There is some positive news for U.S. poultry farms: The cost of chicken feed, which accounts for 70 percent of farmers’ expenses, has fallen significantly after doubling between 2020 and 2022, Hart said.

Flu Situation

According to data from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), 6.26 million birds had been affected by the flu in the past 30 days as of Nov. 29. This includes both commercial and backyard flocks. California was the most affected state, with more than 5.12 million infected birds.

“Anyone involved with poultry production from the small backyard to the large commercial producer should review their biosecurity activities to assure the health of their birds,” APHIS said in a Nov. 18 statement. “The United States has the strongest AI surveillance program in the world, and USDA is working with its partners to actively look for the disease in commercial poultry operations, live bird markets and in migratory wild bird populations.”

A recent report from the USDA pointed out that the flock of egg-laying hens is still recovering from the losses suffered in October. Hens were also culled in early November.

“Egg prices for 2024 are raised based on recent prices and tight supplies. For 2025, egg price forecasts are raised in the first and second quarter as supplies recover,” the USDA stated in the report.

Since January 2022, more than 111 million birds have been impacted by bird flu in the country, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There have been 1,242 outbreaks reported from 547 counties.

So far this year, the biggest outbreak occurred in Sioux City, Iowa, in May among a flock of more than 4.28 million birds. This was followed by Ionia, Michigan, which saw an outbreak among 2.42 million birds in April.

Avian flu has also spread to humans, with the agency reporting 55 confirmed cases to date. California has the highest number of reported infections with 29 cases, followed by Washington, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, and Texas.

“While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures,” the agency stated.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated what increased, which is egg futures. The Epoch Times regrets the error.