The Iowa caucuses have been the first “nominating event” in every presidential election cycle in the United States for 50 years while New Hampshire has staged the nation’s first presidential election-year primary now for a century.
As of Nov. 17, 2022, that means the 2024 presidential campaign “officially” kicks off in 445 days with the Feb. 5, 2024 Iowa caucuses followed by New Hampshire’s primary, preliminarily set for Feb. 13, 2024.
Critics in both parties, but especially Democrats, have long contended that Iowa and New Hampshire, with relatively small and predominately white populations, are not demographically representative of the nation as a whole.
Despite moves by state legislatures to push primaries to earlier dates on presidential election-year calendars, Florida most notably between 2008-12, the lineup has remained the same since 2016: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina.
But that could change in 2024.
DNC Pondering New Primary Plan
The Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) Rules & Bylaws panel will meet Dec. 1–3 in Washington, to discuss proposals from 16 states bidding to host the first 2024 presidential primary or, at least, move their “nomination events” forward on the calendar.
The DNC in April agreed to allow state parties and Democratic groups to apply for earlier primary dates. Twenty organizations from 18 states made presentations in June with the panel to issue recommendations in August.
In July, however, the DNC postponed that decision until after the Nov. 8, 2022 midterm elections, scheduling the vote for its December meeting.
After a dozen state legislatures adopted bills between 2008 and 2014 to push their primaries to earlier dates, the DNC and Republican National Committee (RNC) agreed on revised primary rules in 2016.
Those rules prohibit primaries before Feb. 1 and allow only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to schedule preliminary contests before March.
In addition to Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, Democrats in 14 other states—Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington—made June pitches to the panel.
With Nebraska and New York no longer vying for a first-in-the-nation primary, the favorites among the remaining 16 states in bumping Iowa and New Hampshire from the top of the calendar are Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Results from the midterm elections boost the cases made to the DNC by Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota. The three are now led by Democrat-controlled legislatures, which must approve any change in primary election schedules.
During the Nov. 8 elections, Michigan voters flipped both their state legislature chambers blue, Minnesota Democrats wrested control of the state senate, and Nevada Democrats sustained House and Senate majorities although Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in their gubernatorial race.
Nevertheless, Democrats remain Nevada’s majority party and most Silver State Republicans support the first-in-the-nation primary effort, launched more than a decade ago by the late Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
States Lobbying For First-In-Nation Primary
Nevada lawmakers in May 2021 approved a bill that changed the state’s electoral system from caucus to primary—only Iowa and Wyoming now have caucuses run by parties rather than primaries administered by county and state election officials—and to move the state’s primary elections to the first Tuesday in February regardless when Iowa and New Hampshire schedule theirs.
In fact, Nevada has already tentatively scheduled its 2024 primary elections for Feb. 6, a week before New Hampshire’s traditional first-in-the-nation primary.
Nevada Democrats are continuing to press the DNC as the December meeting nears with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), and Rebecca Lambe, Reid’s former chief political strategist and campaign manager, spearheading the effort.
Lambe outlined the state’s case in a Nov. 15 memo that argues Nevada’s majority-minority population, blue-collar workforce, and geography makes it the ideal place to kick-off presidential election campaigns.
“Nevada looks like America—and Nevada going first will help Democrats win future presidential elections, more so than any other state under consideration,” she writes, noting the 2022 midterm results “underscore Nevada’s record of beating the odds to deliver for Democrats.”
Nevada’s bid is backed by Latino Victory, the Asian American Action Fund, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ Bold PAC, Somos Votantes, and ASPIRE PAC, among other national organizations.
According to the 2020 Census, Nevada is the nation’s third-most ethnically diverse state where 46 percent of residents are white, 30 percent Latino, 10.6 percent Black, and 10 percent Asian American with 28 tribal communities.
The U.S. Bureau of Statistics in 2019 ranked Nevada first nationwide in percentage of blue collar workers. More than 12 percent of the nation’s union workers are in Nevada.
“Nevada represents every crucial voting bloc,” Lambe writes. “Nevada’s mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities also reflects the country’s geography.”
By contrast, 91 percent of 2020 Iowa Democratic caucus participants and 94 percent of 2020 New Hampshire primary voters were white, according to AP VoteCast surveys.
Lambe doesn’t address the Iowa caucuses in the memo but says Nevada is better suited to kick off the primaries than tiny, affluent New Hampshire or brawling, sprawling Michigan are.
“If we disproportionately focus on a state [New Hampshire] with more highly educated, more affluent, and less representative voters, then we are setting our party up for long-term failure,” she writes.
“If we take a gamble on a state [Michigan] that is too big and too risky in the first spot, then we could skew the entire early window and undermine the primary calendar.”
By flipping both state legislative chambers and reelecting Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan Democrats have buoyed their odds of being the first-in-the-nation primary.
If the DNC agrees, Michigan legislators must adopt a bill during its 2023 session changing the 2024 primary date, now set for March 5, which is “Super Tuesday” when 14 states will stage primaries.
A Republican lawmaker has pre-filed a bill to move the primary from March 5 to Feb. 13, the same day as “first-in-the-nation” New Hampshire is staging its inter-party qualifying elections.
South Carolina Democrats maintain their state with its relatively large black electorate is best-suited to be the nation’s first primary, noting President Joe Biden’s 2020 primary campaign floundered before winning the Palmetto State preliminary.
But South Carolina Republicans, who control both chambers of the legislature under reelected Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, are unlikely to be enthusiastic about moving the state’s 2024 primaries before its scheduled March 2 date unless another Southern state tries to move ahead of it.
The South Carolina Republican Party has a rule—Rule 11(b)(1)—that states, “The South Carolina Republican Party shall conduct a statewide presidential preference primary on a date within two weeks after the New Hampshire Republican Primary or earlier if necessary to preserve South Carolina’s ‘First in the South’ status.”
Iowa, New Hampshire Won’t Concede Easily
The agitation has both Democratic and Republican officials in Iowa and New Hampshire finding common ground in defending their top-of-the-calendar placements, sources of pride and excitement in both states because, for a few days every four years, they are the main arteries of the nation’s political pulse.
Iowa has long argued the state’s small, largely rural population is ideally suited for engagement because less-known candidates, and less-moneyed campaigns, can gain a foothold and establish traction.
Iowa has drawn criticism for its one night of in-person ballot-casting in party caucuses, and didn’t help its case in 2020 when technical malfunctions and other issues prevented results from being known for several days.
Nevertheless, the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party said in January 2021 that the state committee was standing “shoulder to shoulder in this fight” with Democrats to ensure it remains the first “nomination event” on the 2024 presidential election calendar.
Democrats have never been happy with Iowa, a Republican-controlled, relatively conservative state, kicking off the presidential election cycle.
Nevada’s Rep. Horsford, narrowly re-elected to a third term on Nov. 8, in a statement blasted the DNC and White House for not knocking Iowa out of the first four “nomination events.”
Nevada is “the clear choice on the merits, and there would be massive pushback if our party goes through this process but makes the self-inflicted mistake of elevating one of the least diverse and least representative states in the country over Nevada just because of their tradition,” he said.
New Hampshire Democratic National Committeeman Bill Shaheen told the Associated Press in August that the Granite State will “do the first primary whether the DNC recognizes it or not” because state statute dictates it do so.
New Hampshire law states its presidential election-year primary be held “on the Tuesday at least seven days immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election.”
Should any other state move its primary before New Hampshire’s Feb. 13 date—Iowa is not “a similar election” because it is a caucus system and not a primary—under state law, the New Hampshire Secretary of State must reschedule the primary to “the Tuesday at least seven days” earlier.
Lambe argues Nevada with “our competitive races, our broad diversity, our mix of communities, our strong unions, our accessible voting laws, our affordable media markets, our small” population make it the ideal place to officially begin the 2024 presidential race.
“For Democrats, choosing a president to lead America should start with a state that looks like America,” she writes.
“This process is an opportunity to make that happen. Our country is changing, our party is changing, and making Nevada the first-in-the-nation primary will help us all win in 2024 and beyond.”
