The dramatic surge in violent crime in many U.S. cities is a consequence of wary and tentative policing in the wake of the summer of 2020 unrest following the death of George Floyd and the efforts of progressive district attorneys to deemphasize enforcement and aggressive prosecution, according to criminologists and experts.
To be sure, there are many theories as to what drives the surge in crime, and not all experts concur about the scope of the increase. Some criminologists say it’s necessary to weigh the perceptions of a public shaken by headlines versus the reality of crime figures.
“Violent crime in big U.S. cities has unmistakably increased, but the rate of this increase appears to have slowed down. Much of the increased public concern has resulted from the very real increase in murders and other violent crimes in the big cities such as Chicago and New York City,” said Heath Grant, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
“As is always the case with such coverage, there is a corresponding increase in fear of crime. It is important to remember that the violent crime numbers, including murder, are about half of what they were in the early 1990s, when the country began its very substantial and sustained crime decline.”
Other experts don’t agree that public perceptions of a sharp rise in crime are misplaced. Heather Mac Donald, an author and fellow at the Manhattan Institute think tank, says that this is a statistical reality, not a perception.
“[The year] 2020 saw the largest increase in homicide in this nation’s history—a 29 percent increase over 2019. A nearly 30 percent increase in anything in a year is almost unprecedented,” Mac Donald said.
Mac Donald described the rise in crime as occurring in distinct phases. In 2020, the first four to five months saw a rise in violence, an increase that shot up with the George Floyd protests in the summer. She contrasted the crime patterns of that year with 2021 and the first few months of 2022, describing this period as one of “full post-George Floyd social breakdown and policing breakdown,” with some of the highest homicide rates ever recorded ravaging cities such as Chicago, St. Louis, Louisville, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington.
Crime Victim Demographics
An overwhelming number of the victims of the rise in violent crime are the racial minorities, Mac Donald noted. In 2020 alone, 50 black children were gunned down in drive-by shootings. While some outlets in the mainstream media might seek to portray “law and order” as a code used to enforce policies favored by Trump voters, it isn’t the latter who bear the brunt of the surge in crime.“Because these black kids are being gunned down by other blacks, Black Lives Matter activists don’t care, the media don’t care,” Mac Donald said.
Concurrent with the spike in violent crime, quality-of-life offenses and “minor” thefts have surged, prompting many retail store chains to lock up their products behind plexiglass barriers or, in some cases, to shut down stores that are vulnerable to crime.
Besides disagreements over the extent of the crime surge, there’s a marked lack of consensus among some experts as to what may be pushing crime upward. While some have suggested that progressive measures such as bail reform play a role, others find this explanation wanting.
“It is unlikely that these increases are due to progressive policies, although the data are still out on the impact of bail reform,” Grant said. “For bail reform to be linked to increases in gun crime after the ‘miracle crime drop’ in New York City, it would have to be shown that it is dangerous offenders, who are not being jailed, are the ones committing these offenses while out and awaiting the completion of their case.
“I just have not seen conclusive evidence of this yet.”
Grant said myriad risk factors play a role in the increase, such as income insecurity, access to firearms, and gang activity. Pandemic stress, and the anxiety and trauma bound up with it, are additional factors, he said. Lack of support for at-risk youth on the part of schools can also be a factor.
‘Defund the Police’
Michael Alcazar, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and former New York police officer, said it isn’t a coincidence that crime has risen sharply in cities where “defund the police” rhetoric has grown pervasive. In Alcazar’s view, New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg is more inclined to work for lawbreakers than for the citizens who elected him.“It sends the wrong message. It definitely emboldens the criminal element, and it also demoralizes police officers. They’re trying to clean up the city, they’re trying to make those arrests, only to have progressive DAs release criminals without bail. They’ve made a decision not to prosecute ‘minor’ crimes, and it’s not working for New York City,” Alcazar said.
“They might come under investigation; they might be terminated, fired, reprimanded, or suspended. When police officers are suspended, they lose their health benefits and their pay,” Alcazar said, noting that this is particularly problematic for officers struggling to support families while COVID-19 lingers.
“The leadership is partly to blame, but you also have this anti-police sentiment, and people don’t feel that they can trust the police and rely on the police.”
Alcazar said a number of his students have come to him for advice about their career choices, and he’s reluctant to advise them to pursue police work in the current climate.
Representatives from Bragg’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time.
In Mac Donald’s view, the increasingly accepted doctrine of “disparate impact,” which holds that it’s necessary not just to consider the objective soundness and fairness of a law or policy, but to look at how its enforcement affects various demographics and sectors of society, has done much to render law enforcement weak and ineffectual.
“That’s why we’re not enforcing the law; that’s why we’re not incarcerating people; it’s all to avoid disparate impact” on racial minorities, she said.
The doctrine turns people away from pursuing policies that may seem objectively sound.
“Any neutral, colorblind law enforcement is going to have a disparate impact. You can either enforce the law in a colorblind, constitutional manner and save lives, or you can avoid disparate impact, stop enforcing the law, and live with the consequences of crime increases,” Mac Donald said.
She concurred with Alcazar about the effect of the reigning doctrines on law enforcement. Not only are officers leaving the profession in large numbers, but recruitment has become a challenge because no one wants to be branded as a racist on the first day on the job, she said. Police officers have grown passive and tend to limit their actions to responding to 911 calls after a crime has been committed.
“When they get out of a car now, they’re surrounded by hostile, jeering crowds putting smartphones in their faces. And we’ve seen that the threat of riots hangs over every jury. Then you have the progressive prosecutors who have announced, ‘You can shoplift, you can loot, you can resist arrest, and we’re not going to prosecute you,’” Mac Donald said.
