The COVID-19 outbreak is dynamic, hitting some places and some people hard and others less so, then tapering off and sometimes resurging.
To track it, we use data, but even the most robust counts have limitations.
The Oxford-based nonprofit Our World in Data explains the conundrum: “Without data, we can not understand the pandemic. Only based on good data can we know how the disease is spreading, what impact the pandemic has on the lives of people around the world, and whether the countermeasures countries are taking are successful or not.
“But even the best available data on the coronavirus pandemic is far from perfect.”
It may seem obvious that no single graph, figure, or stat is sufficient to give a meaningful picture of the situation, yet some circulate the internet with little explanation, as though they are capable of this.
So is it fair if we compare disease rates in other developed countries to the United States? Somewhat, as long as differences in testing and data are taken into consideration.
The Our World in Data website on July 5 shows that the United States had counted 2.9 million cases of COVID with 132,000 deaths, while the EU reported 1.3 million cases and 134,000 deaths.
Although the United States has reported more than twice as many cases, it has only a slightly higher rate of death, which is the number of deaths compared to the population. Using the population and death statistics above, the rate of death in the United States is 0.04 percent compared to 0.03 percent in the EU.
There are a few factors behind these numbers to consider.
One is who/what is being counted in test numbers. There is no international standard of testing for the pandemic, and different countries are following different methods. Some are counting the number of people tested, while some are counting numbers of tests given. And some countries, as in the case of Italy and France, changed their reporting criteria midway.
Case Fatality Rates Don’t Necessarily Indicate Mortality
Case fatality is the number of known cases compared to the number of known deaths.A common misconception is that the case fatality rates indicate how severe a disease is. This isn’t necessarily the case.
To give a hypothetical example: If two people come to a hospital with a strange new disease (both somehow test positive) and both then die of the disease, in this sample, the case fatality rate is 100 percent.
Mortality Assessment Differences
Then, there’s the criteria for classifying a death as being from COVID-19.She said that in other countries, if someone had a preexisting condition and came to the hospital and died of COVID, it might not be counted as a COVID death, while in the United States, it might.
The CDC acknowledges that this lack of testing will introduce some error for mortality figures for COVID-19, flu and flu-like illnesses, and pneumonia.
In hard-hit EU countries such as Italy and France, lab confirmation is required.