Cook Political Report Shifts Arizona, Georgia, Nevada Toward Harris

Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Eau Claire, Wis., on Aug. 7, 2024. (Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images)

The presidential race is tightening in key battleground states, as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have shifted from lean Republican to “toss-up,” the Cook Political Report said on Aug. 8.

The nonpartisan political analysis firm noted that former President Donald Trump went from leading 5.5 percent in Arizona to 1.9, and from 5.9 percent in Georgia to 1 percent.

For Nevada, where Trump was previously leading by 5.8 percent, the report said there weren’t enough polls for a new average but added that in recent CBS and Bloomberg polls, Harris is leading by two points. With the changes, the Cook Political Report now rates 235 electoral votes as leaning “likely or solid Republican,” 226 as leaning “likely or solid for Democrats,” and 77 as “toss-up.”

Trump held leads over President Joe Biden in multiple swing states before Biden exited the race on July 21. Based on FiveThirtyEight polling averages for that date, Biden was trailing Trump by more than five points in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. The vice president’s recent gains on Trump put those Sun Belt states back into play for the Democratic Party.

Harris Edging Past Trump

In the Grand Canyon State, Harris is gaining in some polls as well. A HighGround poll released on Aug. 8 has the vice president up by 2.8 percent over Trump, with 8.8 percent of voters responding “don’t know/refused.”

Harris holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump in Arizona in an Aug. 6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, but trails by one and two points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively. Biden won Arizona in 2020 by less than one percentage point.

In Georgia, Trump maintains a narrowing lead, up two points over Harris in the Aug. 6 Redfield poll and two points in an Aug. 8 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research poll. Similarly, Biden won Georgia in 2020 by a 0.23 percent margin.

However, in Nevada, where Biden won by more than 2 percent in 2020, Harris is thinning Trump’s previous 5.8 percent lead over Biden prior to the president’s exit from the 2024 race. An Aug. 1 Public Opinion Strategies poll has Trump leading by one point, while he remains tied with Harris in the Aug. 6 Redfield poll.

The Cook Political Report also noted that in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump was previously leading by between two to four points, Harris is now leading by anywhere between 0.7 and 1.6 percent.

In a July 30 Susquehanna Polling & Research poll, Harris was up by 4 points over Trump in Pennsylvania, but with a plus or minus 4 percent margin of error.

Tight Race for Both Candidates

James Lee, president and CEO of Susquehanna, told The Epoch Times that the race is close, especially in Pennsylvania.

“I think the takeaway, both nationally and in the battleground states, is that the enthusiasm seems to be there now on the Democratic side, whereas in the past, with Biden in the race, voters were very much uninspired,” Lee said.

He explained that the enthusiasm gap largely favored Trump while Biden was still the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee. After the president left the race, the dynamics flipped.

“In just a matter of days since [Harris] got the baton from Biden, she’s already solidified the Democratic vote in her favor,” Lee added.

Even though Harris’s lead in the Keystone race remains within the margin of error, Lee said she is getting close to 90 percent of the Democratic vote in the Commonwealth, which leans towards the Democrats in voter registration.

He said that in previous polling, the two parties were tied on voter enthusiasm, but Harris’s lead in this metric has cemented her gains on the former president as she brings “energy and excitement to the ticket.”

Trump, Lee noted, needs roughly 95 percent of the Republican vote to win Pennsylvania but only secured 85 percent of GOP support in the most recent Susquehanna poll.

Trump’s Issue Advantage

However, in most battleground states, including the Sun Belt, Trump seems to be outperforming Harris on issues such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. Those remain top concerns for swing-state voters nationwide.

The key thing for Trump, Lee said, is to expand beyond his base. The pollster believes Trump has “hit a ceiling” of support nationwide and needs to appeal to voters in the middle to prevail over Harris. Biden carried Independents by a 52 to 43 percent margin in 2020.

“That’s why I think Trump is struggling now, and why he’s kind of hitting the ceiling because he hasn’t really expanded his tent to include the kind of nonpartisans and independent voters who really will decide the election makeup,” Lee said.

He added that Trump loses a small percentage of votes to Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in many state and national polls.

“If inflation and the economy continue to be the number one issue facing Americans ... and Trump is still winning inflation voters in the exit poll, he will probably win the election,” Lee said.

However, the pollster added that, given the current polling trend within many of the key battleground states, the tight race is now leaning toward Harris.