Cook Political Report Moves Pennsylvania Senate Race to ‘Toss-Up’, Nebraska Race to ‘Lean Republican’

Sen. Bob Casey (L) in Philadelphia on Sept. 21, 2018. Dave McCormick (R) in Milwaukee on July 16, 2024. Mark Makela/Getty Images; Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The Cook Political Report, an influential source in political circles, on Oct. 21 moved the Senate race in Pennsylvania to a “toss-up” and the one in Nebraska to “lean R.”

The Pennsylvania Senate race between incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and millionaire businessman and army veteran Dave McCormick has become close in recent weeks with the latter closing the gap on the former, who has been in the Senate since 2007.

The GOP and Democrats have spent $140.8 million and $139.5 million, respectively, on ads in the Pennsylvania Senate race, according to Cook, which cited AdImpact.

“While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” wrote Cook’s Jessica Taylor, who covers Senate races.

Pennsylvania has been a key state in the past several elections, going for Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008. The last time a candidate won the state but lost the presidential election was John Kerry in 2004.

“Though many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey, this race is now close enough that it belongs more in the Toss Up column than in Lean Democrat alongside Arizona and Nevada, which have clearly become tougher lifts for the GOP,” Taylor wrote.

The Nebraska Senate race features incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and nonpartisan candidate and union leader Dan Osborn. There have been $12.9 million in ads favoring Osborn compared with Fischer’s $8.1 million, according to Cook, citing AdImpact.

“Overall, this race continues to be too close for Republicans’ comfort. While publicly Democrats deny they have a rooting interest here—and Osborn has maintained he wouldn’t caucus with either party if he’s elected—an upset win by Osborn could factor in to mitigate a loss for Democrats in Montana,” Taylor wrote.

Taylor predicted that Fischer, who has been in the Senate since 2013, will win given that Nebraska is a deep red state.

Additionally, Cook has moved the Wisconsin Senate race between incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and businessman Eric Hovde from “lean D” to “toss-up.”

The GOP is expected to take back the Senate with favorable races in Montana and Ohio. Along with those states, in addition to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the GOP also has pickup opportunities in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.