Contrasting Crime Trends: Tennessee Sees Reductions in Violent Crime While California Faces Challenges

A San Mateo County Sheriff officer puts up police tape at a crime scene after a shooting in Half Moon Bay, Calif., on Jan. 24, 2023. Samantha Laurey/AFP via Getty Images

In the midst of Tennessee’s legislative session in March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom took aim at the southern state’s Republican Governor Bill Lee for signing a bill passed by the state’s legislature limiting drag shows in front of young audiences—making the claim Lee should be focused on Tennessee’s eighth place ranking in states with the highest murder rates instead.

California, with a population over five times the size of Tennessee’s, has a lower rate of murder, but the highest total number of homicides in the nation, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control.

Newsom’s state had 2,495 murders, eclipsing Texas, which was the only other state with over 2,000 murders per 100,000 people. Tennessee’s rate was two times as high as California, but with a much smaller number of people affected per 100,000 people at 810 per 100,000 Tennesseans.

Newsom has even said on numerous occasions, while calling for stricter gun control measures, that mass shootings and gun violence are more of a problem in “red states.”

The National Criminal Justice Association calls into question how large of a role politics of a state play in their crime rates.

“If politics plays a role, it’s a minor role,” Tod Burke, a former police officer and professor emeritus in the Department of Criminal Justice at Radford University, told the NCJA.

In the past two weeks, both states released their crime data from 2022, and while murder has gone down in both states, other violent crimes have drastically decreased in Tennessee while rising in the Golden State.

Crime in Tennessee

The ‘Crime in Tennessee’ report reveals some promising trends. Reported incidents of murder, rape, and kidnapping all experienced significant double-digit percentage decreases from 2021 to 2022.

Additionally, the report (pdf) highlights a decline in reported DUI arrests, suggesting potential progress in addressing impaired driving.

Murder in Tennessee was reduced by 14.55 percent, while crimes against persons fell 3.19 percent. Crimes against property rose in the state by 3.31 percent.

However, amidst these positive developments, there is also a concerning rise in reported Identity Theft victims, which increased by 25.55 percent from 2021 to 2022.

California Governor Gavin Newsom discusses the state's plan for homelessness initiatives in Los Angeles, Calif., on Sept. 29, 2021. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Even more alarming, the reported number of extortion/blackmail victims has increased a whopping 77.51 percent since 2020, according to the report, while motor vehicle theft increased 26.91 year over year. The number of reported burglary victims dropped by 18.21 percent.

TBI Director David Rausch expressed gratitude for the continued cooperation from Tennessee’s law enforcement community, which has contributed to the success of the Tennessee Incident-Based Reporting System (TIBRS).

Rausch said the state’s program serves “as a model” for the nation and has enabled the collection of accurate and comprehensive crime statistics. Director Rausch reassured the public that TBI remains committed to providing the necessary training and technical assistance to ensure the collection of the most accurate data possible.

Crime in California

Meanwhile, in California, Attorney General Rob Bonta unveiled multiple reports (pdf) covering different aspects of criminal justice. The Homicide in California report highlights a 5 percent decrease in the homicide rate in 2022 compared to the previous year.

Although progress has been made, Bonta acknowledges the need for further action, particularly in addressing gun violence, which accounted for nearly three-fourths of all homicides in California in 2022.

The Crime in California report reveals a 6.1 percent increase in the violent crime rate and a 6.2 percent increase in the property crime rate from 2021 to 2022.

Despite remaining significantly below historical highs, property and violent crimes continue to have devastating consequences for communities across the state. The report also highlights a decrease in the total arrest rate and the lowest number of adults on active probation since 1980.

Another portion of the report focuses on patterns and trends related to recovered firearms used in or suspected of being used in crimes. The report highlights the need for stricter regulation as it unveils concerning statistics, including the association of certain firearm dealers with crime guns and an increase in the number of firearms recovered without serial numbers.

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee attends The National Museum Of African American Music Grand Opening at The National Museum of African American Music in Nashville, Tenn., on Jan. 18, 2021. Jason Kempin/Getty Images

Both states’ reports underline the significance of reliable and comprehensive data for informed policy choices. Tennessee’s TIBRS program and California’s transition to the California Incident-Based Reporting System (CIBRS) demonstrate a commitment to improving data collection and analysis.

These advancements, the officials said, provide policymakers, researchers, and the public with more detailed information, aiding in the development of effective strategies to tackle crime and enhance public safety.