Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves saw a double-digit lead shrink to just 1 percentage point by late October under allegations of corruption leveled by Democrat challenger Brandon Presley.
The candidates played to their bases in the final hours of the campaign, imploring voters to rally their friends and neighbors to the polls on Nov. 7.
Both men began the week in this deeply religious state by attending church. Eighty-two percent of Mississippians are Christians, according to Pew Research.
Mr. Reeves issued a call on social media for supporters to campaign for him at church on Nov. 5.
After church, Mr. Reeves carried on the Bible Belt tradition of going out for dinner, this time at a Mexican restaurant in New Albany.
Crisscrossing the State
The following day, both candidates took their messages on a whirlwind tour of the state.Mr. Reeves began the day with a morning television interview in Tupelo, in which he touted his economic record, which includes the largest tax cut in state history.
“Mississippi today has the lowest unemployment rate in state history. Mississippi today has more people working than any time in state history. Our kids are doing better in the classroom than they’ve ever done,” the governor said. “Mississippi has momentum.”
The governor then attended a ribbon cutting at the government center in the east-central Mississippi city of Meridian.
Mr. Presley began the day at a sweets shop in Macon, near the Alabama state line. He proceeded to a volunteer mobilization event in Jackson, where he urged supporters to keep getting the word out.
“The work you’re doing right now is going to make a difference,” the candidate said. “This election is that close, y’all.”
“This is about the state of Mississippi, 82 counties in the poorest state in the United States of America, and which candidate for governor wants to improve the lives of the people in those 82 counties, and which one has been a do-nothing, a low-energy person involved in the largest public corruption scandal in state history,” Mr. Presley said.
He was referring to the allegation that Mr. Reeves was connected to a welfare scandal that diverted at least $77 million from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families fund to politically connected wealthy people.
Mr. Reeves has said his opponent has been dishonest and called the allegations “half-baked.”
“Every single thing that occurred occurred between 2015 and 2019, and I was sworn in as governor in January of 2020,” Mr. Reeves said. He was lieutenant governor during that period.
Both candidates hosted evening rallies: Mr. Presley at his hometown of Nettleton and Mr. Reeves at the state Republican headquarters in Jackson.
Turning Out the Vote
Higher voter turnout typically bodes well for Democratic candidates. In recent presidential election years, Mississippi voter turnout has averaged 58.2 percent of all voters. In off-year elections, that average has been 40.5 percent.Cook Political Report estimates that Mr. Presley needs at least 32 percent of active Black voters to participate in the election in order for him to win. The state has the highest-density Black population of any in the nation at 38 percent. Black voters comprised 31 percent of the electorate in the 2019 gubernatorial contest, and 32 percent in 2015, according to data reported by Cook.
Asked about a target threshold for participation, Mr. Presley declined to name a figure.
“As many as we can get,” he said. “We want every voter to come and exercise their right to vote.”
Yet it’s unclear if voters are motivated to do so in this election.
Some voters, like Janet Shanks of Jackson, are motivated by the need to improve the state in a number of categories, especially health care. She praised Mr. Presley’s plan to expand Medicaid coverage and called it “unconscionable” to do otherwise in a state that consistently ranks near the bottom in health indicators such as hypertension and deaths from diabetes.
Other voters who spoke with The Epoch Times were not enthusiastic about either candidate.
“I’ll vote because it’s my civic duty,” D. J. Barnes of Jackson told The Epoch Times. He added that neither candidate seemed concerned about the issues that mattered most, which he listed as crime, homelessness, street repair, and business closings in the city.
“It’s all about the bottom line” for them, Mr. Barnes said.
Another voter echoed the sentiment, telling The Epoch Times that he heard a lot about the election on television but not in his neighborhood. He favored Mr. Presley, saying it was “time for a change.”
There were 1.92 million active voters registered in Mississippi as of Oct. 1. Approximately 885,000 people voted in the 2019 gubernatorial election, in which Mr. Reeves was elected with 51.9 percent of the vote.
There are three candidates on the ballot. Although independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray withdrew from the race, her name remains on the ballot.
If neither candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held between the top two candidates.
