California Voters Could Decide Whether Republicans Keep the House

A voter at the Jack London Aquatic Center in Oakland on March 5 during California's primary election. Philip Pacheco/Getty Images

Though seen by many as a deep blue state sporting a Democrat trifecta—with the governor’s office and both legislative chambers controlled by the party with supermajority margins—California has millions of Republicans and independent voters who could determine the balance of power in Congress in November.

Republicans control the House with a slim eight seat majority, thanks, in part, to some California seats flipping from blue to red in 2022.

Golden State voters will consider 52 races—with seats currently split between 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans—for the House of Representatives, including some of the nation’s most competitive districts.

Many of the tightest races are in districts in the Central Valley, Orange County, and east of Los Angeles in the Inland Empire.

Of the 10 closest districts, Republicans control seven of the seats.

District 13

Incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) will face off against Democrat Adam Gray in a rematch of the 2022 election. Duarte flipped the district red for the first time since 1974 in a win that registered as the second closest in the country at the time—with fewer than 600 votes separating the two out of more than 133,000 cast.

The predominantly Hispanic, agricultural Central Valley district encompasses Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties.

Voter registration is split with nearly 41 percent Democrats, about 30 percent Republicans, and almost 22 percent independent.

In the March primary, Duarte beat Gray by almost 10 percent.

A fourth-generation farmer, longtime plant nursery owner, and first-time representative, Duarte told The Epoch Times that producers, businesses, and lower-income families are “greatly impacted by inflation and the Biden administration’s anti-energy and anti-resource policies.”

He said he hears from constituents that affordability is of paramount importance.

“I’m in touch with the issues in the district and I have a lot of credibility with many people,” Duarte said. “The message is clear: Get water on the farms, drill American oil, and get the cost of living under control.”

The congressman is supported by the National Federation of Independent Business, Central Valley Leadership Round Table, and the Peace Officers Research Association of California, among others.

Gray was born and raised in Merced and worked in his family-owned dairy and feed store. He served as a state Assemblyman representing the area for 10 years beginning in 2012.

“In the state Legislature, Adam championed bipartisan common-sense solutions,” his campaign website reads. “He also founded the California Problem Solvers Caucus, which brings Democrats, Republicans, and independents together to address California’s most critical issues including homelessness, the pandemic, and drought.”

Gray’s supporters say his service shows his desire to help the region thrive.

“Adam has an unmatched record of fighting and delivering for the valley,” his campaign said. “Adam has always put the needs of the community above partisan politics and that’s what he will continue to do if elected to Congress.”

He is backed by groups including Reproductive Freedom for All, Equality California, and the California Labor Federation, among others.

District 22

Another rematch from the 2002 election has incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) up against Democrat Rudy Salas in the state’s most productive agricultural area—the San Joaquin Valley.

The prior race was decided by fewer than 4,000 votes.

Though more Democrats are registered in the district than Republicans—41 percent to 27 percent, with 23 percent reporting no party preference—Valadao has held the seat off-and-on since 2012, losing once in 2018 before recapturing the position in 2020.

He was born and raised in the area with a background in dairy and agriculture. The congressman served two years in the state Assembly before his first election to the House of Representatives.

“David is a proud son of the Central Valley,” his campaign said on its website. “Californians need a strong voice they can trust representing them in Congress—someone who listens and understands that Central Valley residents just want an opportunity to provide and build a better life for their families.”

A lifelong Central Valley resident, Salas labored in agricultural fields with his father before earning a degree from the University of California, Los Angeles, and serving five terms in the Assembly.

“Rudy Salas stood by his commitment to take a stand for Central Valley families and deliver for the region,” his campaign said on its website. “Salas has been a steadfast voice for the valley, fighting for more public safety funding, expanding workforce development programs, expanding veterans’ and workers’ rights, clean water infrastructure and support for our small business community.”

Salas’s supporters include Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla, and the United Farm Workers.

District 27

Voters in northern Los Angeles County will decide who represents the 27th District—which includes the cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, and Santa Clarita, in addition to parts of Los Angeles.

Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) won the election in 2022 and is running against Democrat George Whitesides, former chief of staff of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The district is known a home to companies in the aerospace industry and national defense, with voter registration about 41 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, and almost 22 percent independent.

Garcia is a military veteran and retired fighter pilot who has held the seat since a special election was called in 2020 to replace the Democrat former Rep. Katie Hill—who resigned in 2019 after allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced.

“Our district and our country are at an inflection point,” he said on his campaign website. “With my experience, I know what needs to be done.”

The congressman said his priorities include addressing regulatory red-tape, high taxes, and inflation.

“I understand firsthand the challenges our small businesses face every day,” Garcia said in an Oct. 9 press release.  “Our economy thrives when government gets out of the way and local businesses and hardworking families are empowered to succeed. I’ll continue to fight every day to restore economic security, protect local job creators, and ensure a stronger future for our community.”

Whitesides says his career in aerospace, including a stint as CEO of Virgin Galactic, gives him knowledge of the industry that would help him represent the region.

“I’m running for Congress because politicians have created more problems than they’ve solved,” Whitesides said in a campaign video. “I’ll use my business experience to solve problems, instead of playing politics.”

He said inflation and crime are top-of-mind for many residents and vowed to support law enforcement and reduce taxes for “working people, not billionaires.”

District 45

Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) is pitted against Democrat Derek Tran in the state’s 45th District in northwestern Orange County.

Steel immigrated to the United States from South Korea with her mother and two sisters. In 2006, she was elected to the state’s Board of Equalization and eight years later to the Orange County Board of Supervisors before winning a seat in Congress in 2020.

“In Congress, I have fought each and every attempt to raise taxes,” Steel said on her website. “I have worked tirelessly to push back against reckless spending policies that are driving nationwide inflation from Washington, and I have been committed to standing up to Communist China and standing with our democratic allies abroad.”

Democrats have a slim edge over Republicans in registered voters, about 37 percent to 33 percent, with 24 percent of the electorate independent.

Steel is backed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the National Federation of Independent Business, and former U.S. House Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

Her challenger is a veteran, business owner, and consumer rights attorney whose parents fled a communist regime in Vietnam.

“My parents were refugees who worked hard and sacrificed so that I could realize the American Dream,” Tran said on his website. “I joined the Army to give back to the country that has given me so much, and I’m running for Congress to put people ahead of politics, protect our democracy, and ensure everyone, no matter what neighborhood they come from has the opportunity to succeed without fear of their freedoms being taken away.”

Tran’s supporters include the California Labor Federation and Attorney General Rob Bonta.

District 47

Southern Orange County voters will choose between Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh to fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.)—who ran an unsuccessful campaign for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat.

The district’s electorate is evenly split between parties at 35 percent each, with about 24 percent independent.

A first-generation Korean American, Min worked as an enforcement attorney for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and taught business law at the University of California, Irvine, before being elected to the state Senate in 2020.

He said protecting humanity from the dangers of communism is one reason he is seeking higher office.

“As the son of immigrants who grew up during the Korean War, I know firsthand the importance of democracy and freedom,” Min said in a September press release. “That is why I am committed to standing strong against the Chinese Communist Party and its efforts to try to isolate Taiwan.”

He stressed opposition to “feckless and shameful kowtowing to the Chinese Communist Party.”

“This is not a partisan issue but a matter of core American values,” Min said. “We should defend democracy and freedom around the world, just as we did in World War II and Korea.”

Porter, the Service Employees International Union, and the Police Officers Research Association of California, among others, support Min.

Baugh was raised involved in family businesses and has lived in Orange County for more than 25 years.

“Growing up on our family farm, I learned early on the importance of hard work, faith, family, and freedom—values that have shaped who I am and that I will take with me to Congress,” he said on his website.

In the 1990s, Baugh served in the state Assembly and became Republican leader before being termed out. In 2022, he ran for the District 47 congressional seat but lost to Porter, who was then the incumbent.

Baugh’s backers include the National Federation of Independent Business, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and others.

District 3

Incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) will face Democrat Jessica Morse in District 3—which encompasses a stretch along the state’s eastern border with Nevada.

Kiley was a state Assemblyman for six years beginning in 2016 before he was elected to Congress.

“I’m working across party lines to bring down the cost of gas, groceries, utilities and insurance,” he said on his website.

The congressman said his bipartisan message resonates with constituents.

“I’m tremendously grateful for all the Democrat voters who are crossing party lines to vote for my reelection,” he wrote Oct. 7 on the social media platform X.

Morse was appointed to the U.S. Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission last year and served as a deputy secretary for the state’s Natural Resources Agency.

She said she recognizes the challenges the district is facing “are not partisan.”

“When I see a problem, I run towards it and will not stop until it’s fixed,” Morse said on her website. “I’m ready to roll up my sleeves and tackle the issues that matter to our community.”

District 9

Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is looking to keep his Central Valley seat in a race against Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln.

The district flipped from Republican with Harder’s victory in 2019.

“Josh believes ... we need a new generation of leaders who put party politics aside and get things done,” Harder’s campaign said on its website. “Josh is focused on putting the valley first–lowering costs, delivering affordable health care, bringing home good-paying jobs, addressing homelessness and keeping our neighborhoods safe.”

Lincoln highlighted his record as a veteran and public servant.

“I have lived a life of service: as a mayor, pastor, community leader, and as a Marine, protecting our nation and our president on Marine One,” he said on his campaign website.

He criticized policies emanating from the nation’s capital that he believes are “making life harder” for the Central Valley by “raising the cost of groceries, gas, and housing.”

“Our stagnant economy is leaving people behind, worsening our homeless crisis,” Lincoln said. “We need new voices, and a new approach.”

District 16

Two Democrats are running for the seat vacated by Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.)—who announced her retirement this year.

Assemblyman Evan Low and San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo are vying to represent the district—which encompasses Silicon Valley south of San Francisco.

“Throughout my time in public service, I have defended the most vulnerable and built coalitions to deliver solutions for the biggest challenges of our time,” Low said on his campaign website. “Our region needs an experienced legislator who will lead on maintaining our global competitiveness, combat hate, protect reproductive freedom, address crime in our communities, and ensure the middle class can once again afford to buy a house and raise a family where they work.”

His opponent is prioritizing inflation, public safety, and housing, according to his campaign.

“Sam Liccardo is running for Congress to focus Washington on the big issues like homelessness, crime, and the punishing cost of living,” his campaign wrote on its website. “To a Congress that has been called the least productive in decades, Liccardo says ‘Let’s get it done’ on the problems that matter most to the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and the Coastside.”

District 40

Republicans are looking to hold a seat in the 40th District—which contains parts of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties.

Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) was first elected to Congress in 2021 and is facing Democrat Joe Kerr—a retired Orange County firefighter.

The incumbent said her record is one of bipartisan leadership that prioritizes working families.

“I ran for Congress because I saw Washington politicians failing to deliver when our country needed it most,” Kim said on her website. “As an immigrant and one of the first Korean-American members of Congress, I am proudly serving my community, making sure I hold self-serving politicians accountable, and end the partisan gridlock that has brought our country to a standstill.”

Kerr said Washington is plagued by “gridlock, corruption, divisive rhetoric, the lack of civility, and grandstanding,” and vowed to address the issues.

“For the last three decades, I’ve been running toward the problem—inside burning buildings, putting out fires, responding to disasters, and saving lives,” Kerr said on his website. “Now I’m running for Congress because we need someone who will run toward the problems facing our nation—and solve them, not ignore them.”

District 41

Analysts forecast a tossup in the Riverside County race between Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and Democrat Will Rollins, a rematch of the 2022 election that was decided by less than 4 percent.

Calvert has represented the area in Congress since 1993.

“I don’t just work for Republicans or Democrats; I work for all of Riverside County,” he said in an Oct. 16 post on X.

He acknowledged the gravity of his and other races—with the control of Congress up for grabs Nov. 5.

“The control of the House of Representatives could very well come down to who wins this race,” Calvert wrote in an Oct. 12 X post. “We can’t afford to lose control to radical liberals.”

Rollins is a retired federal prosecutor who highlighted on his website his role in prosecuting Jan. 6 “insurrectionists.”

In campaign videos, he says bridging partisan divides would be a priority of his congressional term if elected.

“It’s time for a new leadership that brings Democrats, Republicans, and Independents together to end the chaos in Washington and deliver real results for Riverside County families,” he said on his website.

District 49

Democrats are looking to hold onto a seat representing coastal northern San Diego County.

Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.)--who has held the office since 2019—is facing a challenge from Republican Matt Gunderson.

Levin’s campaign points to nearly $1 billion in federal funding secured for the district and dozens of bipartisan bills authored by the congressman as evidence that his work is benefiting the community.

He said driving corruption out of government is a top priority.

“Americans need confidence that Congress isn’t bought and sold by special interests,” Levin said in an Oct. 3 X post. “I refuse all corporate PAC money and co-sponsored legislation to ban members of Congress from trading stocks. The public’s interests—not personal profits—should always come first.”

Gunderson’s campaign said he plans to reduce taxes, regulations, and “anti-business” policies to help stimulate the economy.

“Matt Gunderson knows he can no longer sit back and watch the American Dream evaporate for younger generations while government takes more control away from parents and our local communities,” his campaign said on its website. “He’s ready to use his business experience to stand up to the failed policies of Washington, D.C. that are crushing local families.”

The candidate said a change of pace is needed.

“Let’s flip the [49th District] to restore transparent and common-sense leadership back to Washington, D.C.,” Gunderson wrote Oct. 16 on X.

Senate

Californians will also decide who replaces the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein to fill the two-month remainder of her term in a special election held the same day as the vote to fill the next six-year term—which begins in January.

Newsom appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) to the seat in September 2023 after Feinstein died, and Butler opted out of running for the new term.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican Steve Garvey—known for his major league baseball career with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres—are vying for the position.