Special elections for two major Florida congressional districts will take place on April 1, pitting two outsider Democrats against two longtime fixtures of the state government.
The race has both parties on edge. Democrats hope a strong performance for their candidates could indicate that voters are growing weary of the Trump administration, a sentiment they could parlay into next year’s midterm elections.
So far, Democrats have outraised the Republicans by millions of dollars in both Florida races, but the voter registration deficits in what are considered two conservative meccas in the increasingly red Sunshine State give them a steep hill to climb to pull an upset.
Trump’s election victory in 2024 and his Cabinet nominations brought the resignations of two congressmen from Florida: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who eventually withdrew his name after being tapped for attorney general, and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), who is now the president’s national security adviser.
That leaves open Florida’s first and sixth congressional districts, and two familiar faces from the state government have thrown their hats into the ring for the Republican Party.
State Sen. Randy Fine will face off against Democrat Joshua Weil in the Sixth District race. Jimmy Patronis, state chief financial officer (CFO), will battle Democrat Gay Valimont in the First District contest.
Trump has endorsed Fine and Patronis.
Florida’s First District covers part of its western Panhandle and includes Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties, as well as portions of Walton County.
The Sixth District runs along the state’s east coast from southern Jacksonville to the Daytona Beach area.
Both are conservative strongholds in a state that has become solidly red in recent election cycles.
With the current party split in the U.S. House of Representatives, as Republicans lead 218–213, the contests may not necessarily affect control of Congress.
But anything less than a strong showing for the GOP in what are otherwise deep-red districts could be seen as an indicator of the electorate’s feelings toward the Trump administration’s record heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
At first glance, the two seats may seem out of reach for Democrats. Gaetz has consistently won his elections by 30-point margins, and Waltz did the same in 2024 in the Sixth District.
Yet some conservative commentators, such as former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, are not taking the race for granted.
“We have a candidate that I don’t think is winning.”
Democrats are not leaving anything up for grabs, either. Both candidates have outraised their Republican opponents in the lead-up to the April 1 vote, according to Federal Elections Commission reports filed on March 20 before a preelection deadline.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) also announced an investment in both races on March 20. Among other things, the money will fund more than 200 poll watchers and greeters to be deployed throughout the two districts on Election Day.
“This investment into the Florida congressional special elections is exactly the type of work we must do to build power on the ground and make clear to voters that there are no off years when the stakes for the American people are so high,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement.
However, First District Republicans insist that the funding is not going to change the calculus of the race.
“No matter how many millions of dollars her dark Democrat donors pour into Gay Valimont’s campaign coffers, the people of Santa Rosa [County] cannot be bought,” Santa Rosa County Republican Executive Committee Chairwoman Sharon Regan told The Epoch Times.
“Santa Rosa goes to the polls on April 1 to strongly support our Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis for Congress.”
Democrats are hoping for an upset, particularly as their candidate, James Malone, narrowly won a special election on March 25 for an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a district that Trump carried with 57 percent of the vote in 2024.
“Democrats just shattered a 40-year Republican stronghold in Pennsylvania’s State Senate! In a +15 Trump district, no less!” Martin wrote.
“This is a warning, Donald Trump—we’re fired up, we’re mobilized, and we’re coming for you!”
However, both Valimont and Weil have two mainstays of the Florida Legislature to contend with if they hope for an upset.
Before winning his first state Senate election in 2024, Fine represented Florida’s 33rd District in the state House.
However, recent polling shows a tight race in the contest between Fine and Weil.
The margin of error was 4.9 percent, which is larger than Fine’s lead.
Among those who said they had already cast an early ballot, 51 percent said they supported Weil and 43 percent said they supported Fine. Roughly 38 percent of respondents said they had already cast a ballot in the race.
That would mean Fine needs the support of those who are still waiting to cast their ballots, although Republicans historically have made larger gains on Election Day compared with Democrats, who have increasingly moved toward early voting in recent years.
On March 25, Fine urged his voters to hit the polls in a post on X.
“This election will be decided by turnout—make sure you show up! Every vote is vital, and every vote counts,” Fine wrote.
“Every vote matters,” he said.
Local Democrats say the energy and enthusiasm are palpable.
“We’ve seen quite a bit of enthusiasm, particularly on the side of the Democrats in this area, which is much, much more than we would or narrowly see, especially for a special election,” Santa Rosa County Democrats Chair B.J. Brunious told The Epoch Times.
“We know historically that special election turnout and enthusiasm tend to be low on both sides, but we’re seeing a huge amount of support.
“Not only locally, district-wide but across the country, of people focusing on this race, volunteering, asking: ‘What help does the area need in order to flip this seat from Republican hands to the hands of a Democrat?’”
