Of those nearly 59,000 who left the Democratic Party, 36,950 switched to the Republican party, and 21,644 switched their party affiliation to “other,” the category that the Pennsylvania State Department uses in its data to cover parties such as Green and Libertarian.
“As the Democrat Party tilts further to the progressive left, more historically traditional, working-class families are moving to the Republican Party, both in terms of how they vote and how they’re registered,” conservative political strategist Charlie Gerow told The Epoch Times.
There’s a significant shift going on in the base of the party, he said.
“The stuff we were taught in civics class simply is no longer the case—where the Republicans are the party of the country club set and the brie and Chablis crowd—now, to a greater extent, the Republicans are the party of working men and women and the Democrats are the party of the privileged elite,” Mr. Gerow said.
Black voter registration was once reliably Democratic, but now, many have turned to the Republican Party.
“Brown voters are increasingly Republican, in huge numbers, at a time when the media constantly tells black and brown people that Donald Trump is a racist,“ he said. ”And he’s running up numbers [of black voters] unheard of by a Republican.”
This exodus from the Democratic Party isn’t new, but it has accelerated, according to Mr. Gerow.
“People have been switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party for quite a while in Pennsylvania,” he said.
“There was, at one time, a 1 million vote advantage to the Democrats by registration, and now it’s down to about a third of that.”
Of the 8.6 million registered Pennsylvania voters, as of Jan. 2, there are 3,895,562 Democrats and 3,460,478 Republicans, a difference of 435,085 more Democrats than Republicans.
Pennsylvania could be considered the most purple state in the United States, Mr. Gerow said, noting that in recent years, Pennsylvania has had a Republican governor, a Democratic governor, a Republican-led legislature, one Democratic U.S. senator, one Republican U.S. senator, a Congressional delegation split down the middle, a state House that’s split 102–101, and a state Senate that teeters on the edge in terms of majority.
“It’s a state that Donald Trump won eight years ago and lost four years ago. It’s very, very divided,” he said.
“It is a state that can be won by either side, and I think 2024 is going to be very closely contested in Pennsylvania. Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the whole enchilada.”
Pennsylvania GOP
Lawrence Tabas, chairman of the Pennsylvania GOP, said the difference in numbers between Democrats and Republicans has been shrinking in recent years.“We’ve seen a shift in the parties, at least going back to 2016 in Pennsylvania and probably throughout the nation, a lot of Democrats believe the Republicans are better able to represent their interests,” Mr. Tabas told The Epoch Times.
“They see themselves more in us. We’re not the Hollywood crowd anymore—the billionaires and all that. People used to think Republicans were the big capitalists and so forth. I think without question, many more voters believe that the Republicans offer a stronger, safer, more prosperous America.”
The traditional working Americans, the ones Democrats used to say were their key base, have been making the switch, he said. Other voters have moved away from the Democrats and become independent and nonpartisan or members of the Green or Libertarian parties.
At election time, these voters often supported Republican candidates. But that has cooled since the 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs decision, which put control over abortion regulation in the hands of state officials.
“Republicans have a messaging problem, and it’s not just Pennsylvania; this is national,” Mr. Tabas said.
“That hurt us with younger voters and with women. So we’ve seen something of a shift in that, but it is not changing the registration. ... We, as a party, have to realize that we can never be perceived as either discounting or dictating women’s rights. We have to be the ones speaking for ourselves. Not allowing the Democrats to craft what they’re saying is our message.”
Republicans are seriously discussing their approach to talking about abortion. Despite a broad spectrum of views, there’s common ground, such as treating pregnant women with compassion.
Mr. Tabas believes that Democrats are leaving their party for a combination of reasons.
“Look at the economy—clearly it is in the tank,” he said.
Mr. Tabas listed an array of issues, including people not feeling safe in their communities and the illegal immigration crisis at the southern border.
“And even Biden himself has suddenly realized that. Fentanyl is coming across the border, and we’re seeing Democrats looking at our party and believing that we can respond to those issues, believing that we are more like them and better able to represent their views,” he said.
“We’re going to make sure that when these voters switch to the Republican Party, they’ve made the right decision. This is going to be a home for them. And we welcome everyone no matter who they are, whatever their background is. We have no criteria.
“Every American would be welcome and find a home in our party because the issues that are strong for us are the ones that are strong for America.”
