Biden Loses to Trump, Beats Haley in Hypothetical Matchup: Survey

A person casts their vote in the Democratic Presidential Primary at a polling station in West Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 3, 2024. ALLISON JOYCE/AFP via Getty Images

A new YouGov survey shows that President Joe Biden would lose by a slim margin in a hypothetical rematch against former President Donald Trump if the presidential election were held today.

The survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, released on Feb. 2, found that 45 percent of respondents preferred President Trump, compared to 44 percent who preferred his successor. But if the race were between President Biden and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the president would win 39-38 percent.

As for who respondents believed would win in November, regardless of their preferences, the results were more decisive. In a face-off between the two presidents, voters picked President Trump to win by an 11-point margin (47-36 percent). A Biden-Haley matchup, on the other hand, would result in a 38-32 victory and a second term for President Biden.

Other key findings of the poll include that more Americans have a favorable opinion of President Trump than Ms. Haley and that more view him as a strong leader.

Moreover, there was not a single issue on which respondents said they thought Ms. Haley would do a better job than President Trump. In total, there were only two issues on which respondents said neither President Trump nor Ms. Haley would do a good job: abortion and LGBTQ issues.

The poll, conducted Jan. 24 through Jan. 30, has a 4-point margin of error.

For President Trump, the YouGov poll’s results will surely be welcome—though not unexpected—news.

On his Truth Social platform, the former president has touted several polls showing his continued dominance in not only the Republican primary but also the general presidential race.

One such poll, released on Jan. 31 by Morning Consult, indicated that President Trump currently leads President Biden in all seven swing states, and in most cases, it’s not close.

In North Carolina—the only swing state President Biden lost in 2020—President Trump holds a commanding 10-point lead, besting his successor 49-39 percent. Meanwhile, in both Georgia and Nevada, his advantage is a slightly smaller, though still significant, 8 percent. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the former president has a 5 percent lead, while in Arizona and Pennsylvania, his edge is just 3 points.

If those numbers hold steady and the rest of the country votes as it did in 2020, President Trump would win in November with 312 Electoral College votes.

Of course, he would first need to secure the Republican presidential nomination. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows that he has now expanded his support to include roughly 73 percent of Republican voters. Ms. Haley is hovering at around 19 percent.

Still, the former ambassador to the U.N. is determined to keep up the fight. Opting to forgo the Nevada caucus, she is instead betting it all on her home state of South Carolina. But she faces an uphill climb there as well, down 27 points to President Trump.

Brushing off the polls, Ms. Haley told CNN’s Jake Tapper that she was going to work her way to a Palmetto State victory.

“We’re going to do it the same way we did in New Hampshire,” she said on Feb. 2. “We moved 25 points in New Hampshire the last three weeks before the election. We’re at that same point here. We’re going to be anywhere and everywhere, all over South Carolina.”

The candidate added that she intends to remind South Carolina voters of her conservative record as governor “and then show them that we could do that same thing as president.”

But even among those who support the former governor, hope for an upset appears to be fading.

“Honestly, I don’t think it’s going to be great,” Charleston resident Kelly Wade, who plans to vote for Ms. Haley, told USA Today. “I feel like if there’s a state she could win, it would be our state, but I just think the people who are diehard for Trump, they’re going to carry him all the way to the end.”