DES MOINES, Iowa—A host of Republican presidential candidates are busily campaigning in Iowa, undaunted by their status as “long shot” contenders for the nomination.
Politics is a hands-on sport in the Hawkeye state, and a number of GOP candidates are investing considerable time here, bringing their message to diners, town halls, and county fairs this summer.
In any case, political analysts caution against betting on the summertime favorite, especially in Iowa where long-shot candidates have been known to build momentum slowly and wind up on top.
Many Iowa voters say their support will go to the candidate who has the best message and the right temperament for the job. In this election cycle, one other factor is more prominent than in previous years: electability.
Retail Politics
Primary candidates spend a good deal of time in Iowa, which has a population of just 3.2 million. Of those, roughly 190,000 participated in the 2016 GOP caucuses, the last time the GOP nomination was seriously contested.Because of the high candidate-to-population ratio, voters expect an opportunity to see all or most of the candidates in person. Many consider it a requirement for gaining their support. The joke in Iowa is that voters won’t decide to vote for someone until they’ve had coffee with them—twice.
Michael Wyatt and Traci Dow-Wyatt of Indianola told The Epoch Times that they keep an open mind until they can get a personal sense of each candidate. The same goes for Dennis and Lori Reyman of Holstein.
“So far we’ve gotten to know Mike and Karen the best,” Ms. Reyman told The Epoch Times, referring to former Vice President Mike Pence and his wife, Karen Pence. She added that she had met Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just one time and had yet to meet former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
“You size them up on a personal level,” Mr. Reyman said, “just as you would when meeting anyone.”
That makes it as possible to lose votes as to gain votes at whistle-stop campaign events.
The Wyatts said they have not chosen a favorite for 2024, but they have firmly decided against former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson because he did not show up for a campaign stop that they had traveled to attend.
After hearing Mr. DeSantis at a town hall style meeting in July and speaking with him briefly, Mr. Wyatt thought the candidate hit all the key issues but struck the wrong tone by having what appeared to be staged audience questions and a bevy of muscular, black-clad private security guards.
For some, the decision to support a candidate comes down to a gut feeling.
“My instinct tells me what to do,” Felix Onuora of Chariton told The Epoch Times. Mr. Onuora claims to have predicted the elections of President George W. Bush in 2000 and Mr. Trump in 2016 on instinct alone.
The Long Game
Veteran campaigners say making a good first impression in Iowa will not win the race. To be successful, a candidate must put in sustained effort and build momentum from the ground up.“There is only one game in Iowa, and it’s the long game,” Chip Saltsman told The Epoch Times. Mr. Saltsman, a long-time Republican strategist, is the political director for the Pence campaign.
“The most important thing in Iowa is to take your time, hit all 99 counties, and don’t get in a hurry,” Mr. Saltsman said, then added with emphasis, “and don’t peak in the summer.”
Iowa voters may cycle through several favorites before making a final choice, according to Mr. Saltsman. “It’s really important to meet them and talk to them more than once, for a lot of these folks,” he said.
Mitchell and Bryn Bontrager of Wellman told The Epoch Times they would vote for Mr. DeSantis if the election were held today, but that could change. Though they like his record in Florida, they’re open to considering other candidates.
Brandon Ward, a patrol officer with the Wayne County Sheriff’s Department, met Mr. DeSantis at the county fair and was impressed by his straight talk and military record. However, Mr. Ward, who was unable to participate in the 2020 caucuses due to military deployment, thought it was too soon to pick a favorite.
Candidates are well aware of the nature of Iowa politics and put forth an effort there that would be impossible to repeat in the other 49 states.
“You have to systematically work the caucus,” businessman and Republican candidate Perry Johnson told The Epoch Times. “You have to meet them and greet them several times because 90 percent of those people haven’t made up their minds yet.”
Mr. Johnson has visited 40 Iowa counties so far.
Ryan Binkley, another business executive in the race, has made the most Iowa appearances of any candidate so far, according to his campaign.
“Ryan has visited close to 50 of Iowa’s 99 counties; he’s hosted or attended nearly 100 events in the past two months in the state—with about 30 more scheduled in August," Morgan Bonwell, Iowa director for the Binkley campaign, told The Epoch Times.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has made approximately 85 campaign stops, according to a campaign spokesperson. Ms. Haley has made 30 appearances.
“Nikki Haley has traveled thousands of miles across Iowa, holding town halls, answering every question, and meeting voters face-to-face,” Ken Farnaso, press secretary for the Haley campaign, told The Epoch Times. “She puts in the time and effort on the ground because she believes every vote must be earned.”
Mr. Pence has visited the state 15 times, always making low-key campaign stops in restaurants, small businesses, and even private homes. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has spent eight days in Iowa making 19 campaign stops. Staffers say the strategy is improving Mr. Burgum’s name recognition, and that Iowans are responding to his economic message on boosting the economy and winning the “cold war” with China.
Mr. DeSantis made several stops in a July bus tour organized by Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting his candidacy.
“Our team has knocked on the door of every single one of our caucus targets and has signed up approximately 9,000 Iowans to commit to caucus for the governor,” Jess Szymanski, deputy communications director for Never Back Down, told The Epoch Times.
The Problem With Polls
As for the national polls, some Iowans are skeptical of their value at this point in the race. Mr. Trump famously trailed in national polls prior to winning the 2016 general election, causing many to question their accuracy. And the unique nature of Iowa politics means that national polls mean less here than elsewhere.
“Don’t listen to the polls,” Angela Rich, a Republican voter from Chariton, told The Epoch Times. “Iowa is first in the nation.”
Mr. Saltsman agreed.
“I can’t tell you the last person that was ahead in the summer that was ahead on caucus night,” he said. “I think George W. Bush might have been the last one, so, 24 years ago.”
Yet Mr. Trump’s runaway lead in the polls is far outside any margin for error, despite his having made fewer campaign appearances in Iowa than most other candidates.
That is partly due to his “his track record of delivering for farmers,” the Trump campaign told The Epoch Times by email. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said that, as president, he provided $28 billion in subsidies to farmers, which were funded with tariffs on Chinese imports. Also, his “America First” policy remains popular with GOP voters in the state.
“No other candidate for president of the United States has the knowledge or the record of support for our nation’s agriculture community,” Iowa state Rep. Heather Hora said. “And I am proud to join thousands of fellow farmers supporting President Trump’s return to the White House.”
At the state party’s Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines on July 28, where 13 of 14 Republican candidates spoke, Mr. Trump received a rousing standing ovation upon introduction. After the event, attendees were lined up for well over an hour to shake hands with the former president.
Yet Mr. Trump was not unanimously supported by the crowd of 1,200 attendees, which was salted heavily with Republican insiders and activists.
Mr. DeSantis had a large number of supporters at the dinner, a few of whom booed Mr. Trump when he intentionally mispronounced Mr. DeSantis’ name. Other candidates also received strong ovations from the crowd, notably Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Ramaswamy.
“Gov. DeSantis knocked it out of the park in his short speech packed with a long list of plans to put the country back on track, complete with a record of accomplishment to show why he’s the one to get the job done,” said Republican state Rep. Bill Gustoff.
Thirty-nine state legislators and 13 county sheriffs have endorsed Mr. DeSantis.
“I thought DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Trump did the best,” one attendee told The Epoch Times after the Lincoln Dinner. Another was disappointed with Mr. Trump’s lackluster performance on the stage. “President Trump looked miserable,” they said, “like he didn’t want to be there.”
For many Iowans, the overriding concern is to evict President Joe Biden from the White House. While many believe Mr. Trump can accomplish that, others aren’t convinced. Many Iowans who supported the former president in 2020 are carefully examining the Republican field to determine which candidate both represents their views and seems capable of winning the general election.
At a separate campaign event, Jacob Buck of Osceola explained his reason for supporting Mr. DeSantis in candid terms.
“Because he doesn’t have 71 felony indictments,“ Mr. Buck said. ”That’s a start.”
The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15.
