As more and more candidates join the running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, speculation has mounted about their motivations. Do all of them really believe that they could be sitting in the Oval Office by January 2025—or do some have a different destiny in mind?
After all, politicians don’t have small egos.
“In his mind and his consultants’ minds, there’s a pathway,” Trump-aligned consultant Alex Bruesewitz told The Epoch Times about Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) 2024 candidacy in a May 25 interview.
Yet others from a wide range of political backgrounds who spoke with The Epoch Times voiced greater skepticism.
“If all of them legitimately believe they can win, at least a few of them are clearly delusional,” James Hartman, a Republican political consultant and self-described “Never Trumper” who has worked for Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) and other GOP politicians, said in a June 15 interview with The Epoch Times.
Charles Denyer, a cybersecurity expert and biographer of two Republican vice presidents, told The Epoch Times in a June 14 interview, “Politics is about pole positioning, and the vast majority of Republican hopefuls clearly know they have no chance at winning the nomination, but they’re without question positioning themselves for the No. 2 slot.”
William Bike, a journalist and the author of “Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide To Electoral Success,” said in an interview with The Epoch Times on June 12, “While all the Republican candidates say they are in the race to get the presidential nomination, that’s not the case.”
But another insider, Democratic presidential campaign veteran Richard Gordon, was less inclined to dismiss the presidential ambitions of even the least among the Republican 2024 field.
Reality Check
The experts who spoke with The Epoch Times agreed that many Republicans in the 2024 race are putting themselves in a position to be tapped by the eventual nominee.“A strong showing in any number of early primaries allows the eventual nominee to take note of another candidate’s viability and their ability to help win the general election in November. With little money and marginal name recognition, the likes of Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley—and others—are jockeying for that hopeful phone call to be selected as the nominee’s running mate or possibly a Cabinet position,” Denyer said.
In the case of Scott and Haley, the early primary in their home state of South Carolina could be the critical test.
Their names frequently recurred as plausible picks for vice president, as is often the case in conversations about the 2024 race. Other names—for instance, that of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie—didn’t.
But why?
One reason may be their reputation for hawkishness—a tendency that isn’t uncommon in the state that produced Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). High-level Republicans, eager to put the Trump years behind them, may yearn for a return to the foreign policy stances of the McCain or Bush families.
Gordon suggested that at least some contenders “may be thinking ahead to a post-Trump Republican party and want to carve a place for themselves in it.”
For Scott, Haley, or some other hopefuls, 2028 might mean a lot more than 2024, particularly if conflict with Russia, China, or both has whetted Americans’ appetite for more vigor (or, to some, aggression) internationally.
Another obvious, if uncomfortable, explanation, at least for those conservatives who would prefer to think of themselves as colorblind, is demographics.
The United States is on pace to become majority minority within decades. The process is already complete in states such as California, now more Latino than white—and the flow of illegal immigrants across the U.S. southern border has accelerated the trend, one in keeping with migrant-driven demographic changes happening across western Europe, Canada, and other countries.
Nevertheless, at least in the eyes of some, the Republican Party must run nonwhite candidates to attract nonwhite voters.
Haley, who’s of Indian descent, and Scott, who’s African American, check the right demographic boxes for a party that’s at other times willing to criticize “diversity, equity, and inclusion” initiatives.
Those boxes would also be checked by Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, now suddenly a part of the 2024 conversation.
“I think Mayor Suarez could have an interesting impact on primary voter behavior—if he makes it that long—especially in Florida and, nationally, among Latino voters,” Hartman told The Epoch Times.
Some Trump loyalists see Suarez and others as part of an establishment strategy to divide and conquer the former president’s fans.
Race and Gender
There may also be pressure to put a woman somewhere on the ticket.Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung denied the assertions.
“Anyone who thinks they know what President Trump is going to do is seriously misinformed and trying to curry favor with ‘potential’ V.P. candidates,” he said.
Bike told The Epoch Times that demographic considerations are guiding political calculations in both major parties. He pointed out that Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, both ran alongside black female lieutenant governor candidates—Juliana Stratton and Winsome Sears, respectively.
He also noted President Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as running mate.
Biden had previously pledged to select a woman for his vice presidential slot. He likewise vowed to nominate a black woman to the Supreme Court, ultimately choosing current Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace Stephen Breyer.
From some angles, the future of American politics looks more and more racialized.
“I think Trump–Pence was the last all-white male ticket we’re going to see for a while, and maybe ever,” Bike said.
“I think with both parties, we will see a white male candidate for president and a woman or minority or both for vice president—not only in 2024, but from now on.
“Tim Scott and Nikki Haley know they could win South Carolina, but they’re also savvy enough to know that they aren’t going to get the nomination, and they’re running for vice president.
Hartman was more optimistic about the odds for the pair of Palmetto State competitors.
“I suspect [Scott] will do rather well at first and might certainly be a good VP pick if he doesn’t finish on top—unless, of course, Ambassador Haley prevails, in which case she’d be ill-advised to choose a running mate from the same state,” he said.
Who’s Serious?
Rightly or wrongly, some candidates are taken more seriously than others.“For those people who don’t like Trump because of the mean tweets, are they going to like the guy who is mean about Donald Trump?” Spicer said.
Some who spoke with The Epoch Times had a more charitable take on Christie—or, at the very least, see him as someone who’s actually gunning for the top job rather than a lesser post.
“I think Gov. Christie is a serious candidate, but I don’t anticipate he will garner the momentum he would need to secure the nomination,” Hartman said.
Bike listed Christie alongside DeSantis, Hutchinson, and former Vice President Mike Pence as those who “are definitely running for president and not for VP or the Cabinet. They’ll either win or go home.”
“Christie and Hutchinson, in particular, have already proven this by being critical of Trump,” Bike said.
Another contender, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, wasn’t taken quite as seriously by the insider commentators.
“Vivek is running to showcase himself and his brand, nothing more. While he’s definitely a true firebrand conservative, his strategy is no different than countless other candidates who jump into a major political race because they have millions to spend at their free will,” Denyer said.
Bike categorized Ramaswamy with other smaller contenders who “don’t have a high enough profile to be VP—they won’t contribute anything to the ticket.”
“Despite what they say, they’re running for Cabinet posts,” he said.
Hartman said, “Mr. Ramaswamy is probably well-intentioned but has no legitimate shot at the Oval Office. Among other things, his talk of raising the voting age to 25 could result in a miniature surge of young voters going to the polls—to vote for someone else.”
It’s possible that the unique circumstances in 2024, from Trump’s legal battles to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s outsider bid, could open up unexpected opportunities for unusual candidates.
Yet to many informed observers, the broad outlines of the coming contest are already apparent.
“I don’t see a dark horse for the GOP nominee. It’s either Trump or DeSantis—that I say without much reservation. Both men have a massive war chest to spend, will spend it to the very last dime, with one coming out victorious in what could be a bloodbath march toward the nomination,” Denyer told The Epoch Times.
