Following the latest inflation data, U.S. financial markets are asking two questions. First, is this the beginning of an inflation revival? Second, how will the recent numbers impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision-making?
In July, the annual inflation rate edged up to 3.2 percent, marking the first increase in the growth rate in a year. The core consumer price index (CPI), which strips the volatile food and energy components, remains stubbornly high at 4.7 percent.
Inflation in the Second Half
Despite the substantial surge in crude oil and gasoline prices, the gains didn’t fully materialize in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) CPI report.“The July CPI report obviously missed this energy price spike, and we now expect it to show up in the August CPI report, putting further upward pressure on inflation year-on-year,” wrote Scott Anderson, the chief economist at Bank of the West Economics, in a note.
Peter Schiff, the chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, thinks the upward trend in the July inflation is only the start of renewed price pressures.
“Core is bottoming, and the headline number is about to rise sharply, led higher by surging #oil prices,” he said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“Today’s hotter than expected [0].3 [percent] rise in July PPI is only the beginning. Future, even larger upside surprises are coming,” Mr. Schiff wrote in another X post.
Some market experts say that the PPI is a reliable indicator of where inflation might be heading because it measures the price at which producers can sell their goods. The CPI gauges the price that shoppers pay for goods and services.
“YoY PPI up for the first time in 13 months,” he wrote on X. “More data needed to convince Fed’s 2 [percent] target.”
Meanwhile, ING economists believe that the July CPI data point to a persistent easing of inflation pressures. At the same time, there could be a divergence between the headline and core inflation measurements this fall.
“Unfortunately, we are likely to see headline annual inflation rise further in YoY terms in August, albeit modestly. This will largely reflect higher energy costs, but we suspect it will resume its downward path again by October,” wrote James Knightley, the chief international economist at ING, in a research note. “Core inflation won’t have this problem as the 0.6 [percent] MoM prints for August and September last year will drop out of the annual comparison to be replaced by 0.2 [percent] readings we predict, allowing annual core inflation to slow to below 4 [percent] by September.”
But one economist thinks that there will be an inflation surge later this year.
“I don’t think we can yet be confident that we’re not going to see a real acceleration of inflation at some point down the road,” Mr. Summers told Bloomberg on Aug. 4. “That’s the thing that I’m focused on.”
In July, annualized hourly earnings were unchanged at 4.4 percent.
“Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields,” Ms. Abramowicz said on X.
Consumers are more optimistic, as their inflation expectations have been trending downward since last spring.
All About September
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene its next two-day policy meeting in September.But a chorus of Fed officials has offered mixed messaging on what the central bank could do next month, citing one more jobs report and another CPI release before the September FOMC meeting.
Speaking to reporters at the post-FOMC press conference in July, Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t convey what the central bank will do in September, saying that a final decision is “live.”
“I would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted it,” Mr. Powell told the press. “And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting.”
The Fed chief reiterated that he doesn’t expect inflation to return to the institution’s 2 percent target until 2025.
Considering the path of inflation since hitting a June peak of 9.1 percent, it could be time to leave rates alone for the time being, says Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker.