ANALYSIS: Governor’s Race in Kentucky Could Be Sign of Trump’s Influence and Red State Democrat Chances in 2024

GOP gubernatorial election pits former Trump official against a Trump-endorsed Attorney General

Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron speaks to reporters in Washington, on Oct. 12, 2021. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Weeks after the Kentucky Derby, another race in Kentucky will shine a light on the Bluegrass state as a possible litmus test for 2024’s elections. A former Trump official and the state’s Trump-endorsed attorney general will face off next Tuesday to become the GOP nominee to take on incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear.

Former President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Canada and then the United Nations, Kelly Craft, is up against the frontrunner and Trump-endorsed Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Craft also released an ad from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in which he endorsed her for the governorship.

Cameron also served as a former staffer to GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and was the first Republican in 70 years to win the top law enforcement office in Kentucky. Beshear was the former Attorney General prior to running for governor in 2019.

Either Craft or Cameron could make history if they win the primary and then general election, with Craft being the first Republican woman elected to the office in Kentucky and Cameron being the first black Kentucky governor as well as the first black Republican governor in the United States.

2024 Implications

The race is one of only three gubernatorial races in 2023 that all happen to be in states that Trump won in 2020. Kentucky’s race is not only a show of Trump’s influence among Republican primary voters but a show of how vulnerable Democratic Senators could fare next year in other states Trump won in 2020.

Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky, speaks during a news conference after a gunman opened fire at the Old National Bank building in Louisville, on April 10, 2023. Luke Sharrett/Getty Images

Mississippi’s gubernatorial race is the only currently GOP-held seat, with Republican incumbent Tate Reeves seeking a safe reelection. Meanwhile, Kentucky and Louisiana races will see two Democrats seeking to retain office in their Trump-won states.

In the Louisiana race, current Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards is term-limited and cannot seek another term. Trump won Louisiana in 2016 and 2020. Louisiana’s primary system includes all candidates, regardless of party, running against one another on the same ballot in October. If no candidate secures over 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will compete in a November runoff election.

How Beshear fares in the election could be a warning sign to Democrats seeking to retain their U.S. Senate seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. With control of the U.S. Senate so close, one or two seats won or lost could make all the difference in Republicans taking back the Senate or Democrats narrowly retaining it.

The Political Derby

Beshear, the son of a former popular Kentucky governor, has remained relatively popular according to polls through his tenure, being hands-on with Kentuckians through a string of natural disasters as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beshear’s regular news conferences and press releases come with the branding “Team Kentucky” updates, as do many other Government funds and websites to appeal to Kentuckians. One website set up by his administration titled “Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief Fund” directs people to donate for flood cleanup incurred in 2022 storms in the eastern part of the state.

Earlier this year, Beshear was coined the “most popular Democratic governor” in the country, with an approval rate also much higher than that of President Joe Biden.

Beshear does not outwardly tie himself to national Democrats, focusing more on local and state issues. In an interview with The Associated Press in late December, Beshear criticized Trump as well as Biden and made it clear he did not need nor did he seek Biden’s help in campaigning for him.

“This campaign isn’t going to be about national figures,” Beshear told the Associated Press. “It’s not going to be about any other figures. It’s going to be about the people of Kentucky. So you shouldn’t expect me to bring in anyone, whether they’re popular or not popular in Kentucky. I’m willing to run on my record. I’m willing to run on my relationship with the people of Kentucky.”

His distancing himself from the Democratic party nationally still doesn’t stop his GOP challengers from going after Beshear for some “woke” policy, such as vetoing a bill banning transgender youth from medical treatment, which was ultimately overridden by the GOP-controlled legislature.

Advertising Frenzy

The race has seen mass amounts of money spent on advertising leading up to next week’s GOP primary. The latest data shows over $10 million had been spent as of last week, according to data from AdImpact and NBC News.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is flanked by U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft as he speaks to reporters at the United Nations headquarters in New York, on Aug. 20, 2020. Mike Segar/AFP via Getty Images

AdImpact data show Craft had spent $5.3 million, followed by a PAC supporting Cameron and another PAC opposing him.

Commonwealth, the anti-Cameron PAC, has repeatedly run ads painting him as not a true conservative, including one comparing him to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who is prosecuting Trump in New York. The ad continues to call him a “soft on crime teddy bear.”.

Cameron has run ads pushing back against protestors who rallied outside of his home in 2020 amid unrest following the killing of Breonna Taylor.

An ad by the PAC supporting Cameron released in recent weeks attacks Craft as someone who has “misled” Kentuckians and was absent from her post as Ambassador “half the time,” referring to a Politico article about her time as Ambassador to Canada that claimed she was absent for more than 300 days during her tenure in Ottawa, Canada.

More on the Race

Several other candidates are seeking the GOP nomination, with the third place spot going to the Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles. Quarles has painted himself as another option to the “mud slingin’” Craft and Cameron.

“My mama used to say watch how politicians run their campaigns, and it'll tell you a lot about who they are,” Quarles said in an ad. “Negative ads not, showing up to debates and not even traveling across the Commonwealth to ask for your vote. That’s not me.”

A total of 12 Republicans are running in the GOP primary, while Beshear will face two other Democrats in his primary. It is unlikely either of those candidates could win the Democratic nomination due to very low polling numbers and Beshear’s popularity.

Beshear defeated unpopular Republican governor Matt Bevin in 2019, and according to polls, he is the frontrunner in the mostly red state. Beshear won by only 5,000 votes in 2019 in the state, while Trump carried the state in 2020 by nearly 26 points, according to Politico.

President Donald Trump (R) smiles behind Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin during a rally at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., on Nov. 4, 2019. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

A poll showed Cameron at 30.1 percent, Craft at 23.9 percent, and Quarles at 14.9 percent, while 20.7 percent were still undecided. FOX 56 noted their poll showed the same order of candidates as a January Mason-Dixon poll, but the gap between Cameron and his opponents closing in.

That January poll indicated Beshear leading his Republican challengers with a 61 percent approval rating by the Mason-Dixon poll. That poll showed Cameron with the closest trail behind the incumbent at nine percent.

Regardless of the advertisements and polls, the primary election on Tuesday will leave one of the GOP candidates standing to go head-to-head in a race that will be closely watched as a potential precursor to 2024.