ANALYSIS: Arizona Braces for Unpredictable Three-Way Senate Race

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) speaks at a news conference after the Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act at the Capitol Building in Washington on Nov. 29, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Kari Lake is campaigning, she just hasn’t clarified if she’s stumping for former President Donald Trump as a potential vice presidential candidate or, perhaps, running for the U.S. Senate.

Blake Masters, defeated in a competitive 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election by incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), is being courted to run for the Senate in 2024 but has not confirmed or denied his interest.

Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost 2022’s Republican gubernatorial primary to Ms. Lake; businessman Jim Lamon, who lost a 2022 Senate primary to Mr. Masters; and Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward are among Republicans also purportedly pondering Senate runs.

But those aren’t the only falling shoes still up in the air in Arizona where the state’s Aug. 6, 2024, primaries are nearly a year away and its April 8 deadline for candidates to officially declare is still nine months down the road.

Kari Lake speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference at Hilton in Washington on June 24, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), elected in 2018 as a Democrat before leaving the party in December 2022, has not announced her 2024 intentions, although she has filed campaign paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) in December to run as an independent.

That leaves Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) as the most prominent candidate thus far to officially declare he is in the race, announcing in January he was running for Ms. Sinema’s seat in what will be a well-financed campaign that should easily capture the Democrat nod next August.

Which all likely leads to this: An unprecedented three-way Arizona U.S. Senate election featuring Ms. Sinema—an incumbent without the backing of either major political party in a state where nearly 40 percent of the electorate is unaffiliated—pitted against a liberal in Gallego and against Ms. Lake or Mr. Masters or any one of an array of possible GOP party nominees ranging from relative moderates to MAGA conservatives.

Arizona Key GOP Target

Ms. Sinema’s seat will be one of 34 Senate spots on ballots across the nation in November 2024, including 20 held by Democrats, 11 by Republicans, and three by independents.

Of the 20 seats now held by incumbent Democrats, at least eight are in states defined as “competitive” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Of the 11 U.S. Senate seats held by GOP incumbents, all are in states rated as securely red.

The three independent Senate incumbents all caucus with the Democrats. But unlike Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—both heavily favored to be reelected—Ms. Sinema, faces a far different re-election scenario.

‘She is among the four “most vulnerable” Senate incumbents, according to The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which all rate the state and either a “toss-up” or a “battleground state.”

Pina County Sheriff and Republican Arizona 2024 Senate candidate Mark Lamb talks with voters in Tucson, Arizona, on June 15, 2023. (Courtesy of Sheriff Mark Lamb for U.S. Senate)

Right now, while 16 prospective hopefuls—including eight Democrats, seven Republicans, and Libertarian Seth Johnson—have filed an official “statement of interest” in running in the primaries for the seat with the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, only two have also registered their campaigns with the FEC.

As of Aug. 1, there are six Arizona U.S. Senate campaigns registered with the FEC, including those of four candidates who have not filed statements of interest with the state as yet.

Most notable among the four is Ms. Sinema, who registered as an independent candidate in the race in December despite not officially declaring if she’ll seek another six-year term in Washington.

According to the Sinema For Senate second-quarter FEC filing posted June 30, the incumbent raised $3.77 million between April and June and began July 1 with a $10.756 million war chest.

Mr. Gallego, a Marine combat veteran who kicked off his campaign with a fundraiser headlined by former House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), raised more than $3.8 million during the first quarter of 2023—$2.2 million more than Ms. Sinema’s campaign reported during the first quarter—and more than $3 million in the second quarter. His campaign began July 1 with $3.7 million in the bank.

Sheriff Now Leads GOP Pack

The only other declared candidate in the race and raising money with an FEC-registered campaign is Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb who, as of Aug. 1, would have to be rated as the official frontrunner in the GOP Senate primary.

Mr. Lamb’s second-quarter FEC campaign filing shows he raised $607,722 in contributions between April and June and spent $272,385 during that span to have $335,337 in cash on hand July 1.

Mr. Lamb has a statewide presence as a hardline advocate for border security. His campaign website and videos say he’d support unleashing the U.S. military on to Mexican drug cartels to “wipe them out just like we did to ISIS.”

The sheriff is also an outspoken Trump supporter, although he does not subscribe to Ms. Lake’s insistence that the 2020 election was stolen from the former president or the 2022 gubernatorial election was stolen from Ms. Lake, noting in June that he had not seen “material, large-scale fraud” he could take to a jury.

Republican U.S. senatorial candidate Blake Masters speaks during his election night watch party in Chandler, Arizona, on Aug. 2, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Mr. Lamb, who did not return phone calls from The Epoch Times on Aug. 1, gained national notice when he refused to enforce Republican then-Gov. Doug Ducey’s stay-at-home orders in May 2020.

He is also sustains a support for law enforcement presence via a streaming service he founded called  “American Sheriff Network.”

Despite Ms. Lake’s status as a MAGA rock star on Mr. Trump’s national stage, there’s some substance to the sense that Mr. Lamb could be a viable challenger for the GOP Senate nod even should she or Mr. Masters enter what would be a race before a three-way race against Ms. Sinema and Mr. Gallego.

While a three-headed race with a former Democrat espousing moderate views and a progressive Democrat would, at first blush, appear to benefit the Republican primary survivor, it all depends on who that preliminary winner is.

But according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, there are more non-affiliated voters than those registered in either party. Slightly more than 35 percent are not-affiliated, slightly less than 35 percent are registered Republicans, and 30 percent are registered Democrats.

This creates a lane for Ms. Sinema to run as an independent and an opportunity for a moderate Republican to defeat a more conservative rival in the GOP primary.

After Trump-endorsed Mr. Masters and Ms. Lake lost their 2022 midterm races, many Grand Canyon State analysts also believe many Republican voters are exhausted by the 2020 and 2022 election fraud claims, especially from Ms. Lake, who still refers to herself as the “real Governor of Arizona” and is legally challenging Democrat Katie Hobbs’ victory.

During a recent stop in Tucson to promote her new book, “Unafraid,” Ms. Lake drew a large crowd at Firetruck Brewing where she told reporters she has no plans to announce any plans until fall.

“I’m actually eyeing the Senate race. It’s something I’m considering,” said Ms. Lake, who also teased a fall decision while attending the Family Leadership Summit in Des Moines, Iowa, in mid-July.

Ms. Lake is raising money with her Save Arizona Fund, which is not a campaign but “a movement,” according to statements on Karilake.com, which still spells out her policies from 2022 campaign.

Mr. Blake, who did not challenge his 2022 defeat to Mr. Kelly, essentially could reboot that campaign if he chooses to run for the Senate in 2024.

His Blake Masters For U.S. Senate website is still up and he has a 2023-24 Blake Masters For Senate FEC campaign filing with $3,234 in the kitty as a place setter from his 2022 campaign that raised $15.5 million.

He sustains commentary on events on his X account, formerly Twitter.

Among the eight Democrats who have filed statements of interest in being a candidate in Arizona’s 2024 U.S. Senate primaries, Mr. Gallego is the clear front-runner among a gaggle of relatively little-known party rivals,

Several, including Scottsdale attorney Hart Sebastian Cunningham and Tucson nursery owner Trista di Genova—a former gubernatorial, state mine inspector, and Pima County Sheriff candidate—say they’re running for president on their social media.

Of the seven Republicans who have thus far filed preliminary paperwork with the state stating they are considering entering the Senate primary race, the most prominent is Mr. Lamb.

Others preliminarily pondering a GOP U.S. Senate primary run include New York native George Nicholson, whose campaign website says he has “a desert heart” and targets “career politicians;” Gilbert business owner Edward Hampton, who lost a 2022 state senate race; former Back Country Horsemen of Central Arizona President Alan White, who ran as a Libertarian in the 2020 U.S. Senate race; John Schiess, who has run for the U.S, Senate in Alaska and Wisconsin and has a campaign website that says he’s running “For U.S. Senate … and …U.S. President;” and John Elleray, who does not appear to have any campaign media.

Registered with FEC as Republican candidates for Arizona U.S. Senator without, as yet, filing a “statement of interest” with state elections officials are engineer and consultant Brian Wright, whose campaign website touts him as the “Common Sense Conservative Candidate,” and Robert James Walker, who appears to be running a non-public campaign thus far.

Non-affiliated candidate Richard Grayson of Apache Junction, whose FEC-registered campaign committee is named “Richard Grayson Says: Death To No Labels,” is a perennial satirical candidate who famously registered in 1979 with the FEC as a 1980 vice president candidate on an independent ticket without a presidential candidate.