Enthusiastic New York GOP strategists and politicians view last week’s victories in local Long Island and Bronx elections as an indicator of what’s to come statewide in 2024.
In Suffolk, for example, Ed Romaine became the first Republican to be elected county executive since 1999, defeating Democrat Dave Calone for Democrat Steve Bellone’s vacated seat.
“Long Island voters are very pragmatic,” Robert Hornak, political consultant with Lexington Public Affairs, told The Epoch Times. “They own homes. They have communities and they’re not going to put up with people coming in with ideological schemes to change society.”
Mr. Hornak is former executive director of the Queens GOP.
In the 19th District of Northeast Queens, Republican incumbent Vickie Paladino was reelected last week to New York City Council by a landslide.
She foresees the GOP having a lot at stake in the 2024 elections.
“The GOP is in a precarious position,” Ms. Paladino told The Epoch Times. “We can either solidify our gains or slide backwards again. With Democrats pushing further left despite their recent losses, Republicans have the potential to do even better and Democrats, frankly, have everything to lose.”
On Nov. 7, Republican town supervisors in Hempstead, North Hempstead, and Oyster Bay were reelected in Long Island, while east of the Bronx River, Republican candidate for New York City Council, Kristy Marmorato, an X-ray technician, defeated Democrat incumbent Marjorie Velázquez in the 13th District.
“It demonstrates an appetite for common sense ideas in the city especially in areas where we may not expect it,“ Ms. Paladino said. ”It shows donors and the party-at-large that races in New York are worth investing in. We need to identify good candidates, support them, ensure they are well-financed, and start winning more elections. We definitely can do it.”
Ms. Marmorato is the first Republican elected in the Bronx in 21 years since state Sen. Guy Velella resigned in 2004. Her brother is Bronx Republican Party Chair Michael Rendino and her husband, Gino Marmorato, is the Bronx GOP commissioner for the New York City Board of Elections.
Democrats, however, retained their stronghold upstate owing to victories in population centers like Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse.
“[Republican] candidates need to explain to voters that decline is a choice, and they can choose to make a change by voting differently,“ Ms. Paladino added. ”We don’t all have to agree on every issue but a unified rejection of the well-documented failures of the far left will translate into broader electoral success.”
Experts claim the national party’s position on abortion is undermining Republican candidates in the Empire State.
“It’s driving moderate Democrats to the polls to vote because this is an issue they care very, very deeply about,” Mr. Hornak said. “Americans, in general, don’t like to be told what to do by the government.”
All congressional seats statewide are up for grabs in 2024, but some Republican members of Congress in New York are more vulnerable than others.
For example, Rep. George Santos, who represents the 3rd Congressional District, has been charged with one count of conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, two counts of wire fraud, two counts of making materially false statements to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), two counts of falsification of records submitted to the FEC, two counts of aggravated identity theft, and one count of access device fraud.
If Mr. Santos advances into a primary, Mr. Hornak predicts he will lose if he can even get on the ballot.
“Getting on the ballot in New York is always the first hurdle you have to face and it’s not an easy one,” Mr. Hornak added.
Mr. Zumbluskas has yet to announce his House candidacy for next year but he’s hopeful about the prospects if he does run again.
“The Republican county executives in Nassau and Suffolk make a big difference because if you control the elected apparatus, it makes it easier for your candidates, especially the ones that aren’t elected to get extra media attention, endorsements and workers to canvas the neighborhoods,” he said.
Mr. Zumbluskas lost to Democrat incumbent Rep. Jerrold Nadler last year, while Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito won the 4th Congressional District seat in Nassau County, Rep. Nick LaLota won Eastern Long Island’s 1st District Congressional District, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino was reelected to represent the 2nd Congressional District in Nassau and Suffolk counties.
The biggest problem with the Republican Party in New York State, according to Mr. Zumbluskas, is its lack of support for downstate candidates.
“One of the challenges I had last year was being unknown in a good chunk of the district but the real big problem was I didn’t raise enough money and Nadler refused to debate me,” said Mr. Zumbluskas, an Army veteran.
In Hudson River Valley last year, Republican Marc Molinaro was elected to the 19th District of U.S. Congress along with fellow Republican Brandon Williams in the 22nd Congressional District in Central New York.
Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, a Republican, was reelected and represents Western New York’s 24th Congressional District, while New York State Republican Committee Chair Nick Langworthy represents the 23rd Congressional District upstate.
“I don’t think Democrats will take back as many seats as they think,” Mr. Zumbluskas added. “They might lose one or two seats, especially upstate because they were close last time. The economy’s not really improving and people are feeling the heat of inflation.”
The reelection of Congressman Mike Lawler, who represents the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, and others will largely depend on how a state appellate court rules on redistricting.
At issue is a lawsuit currently pending on appeal in which plaintiffs allege the current congressional map was drawn by an Independent Redistricting Commission led by a special master appointed by a right-wing judge.
“As a result of the new lines in New York that the special master did, the Republicans took Congress in 2022,” Mr. O’Reilly said. “So Democrats want to get rid of all those New York Republicans that just won by claiming the special master was only a temporary solution even though there was no discussion of that. They will try to gut the Hudson Valley and knock off Lawler, Molinaro, and Williams.”
A decision is expected this month.
Issues such as migrants, the Israel–Hamas war, inflation, and crime are likely to work in favor of conservative candidates for Congress and U.S. Senate but Mr. O'Reilly is worried about voter registration.
“Republicans have the wind at their back on issues going into 2024 but Democrats have a registration advantage of almost three to one,” he said.
As for New York U.S. Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who are both Democrat, only Ms. Gillibrand’s seat is up for grabs since Mr. Schumer was reelected a year ago. Mr. Schumer represents the 9th District while Ms. Gillibrand oversees the 20th District.
Her lack of visibility causes Mr. Hornak to believe Ms. Gillibrand is defeatable.
“We never hear from her, never see her, she’s never mentioned in the news, and she’s never talked about,” he said. “Considering we had a strong statewide showing and Gillibrand is not a strong incumbent, that’s a potential pickup for us if we come up with a strong candidate.”
