With their party primaries behind them, Democrat Stacey Abrams and incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp can now focus on each other as their grudge rematch for Georgia governor intensifies.
The governor’s general election features a rematch of the 2018 election, in which Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams by about 1.5 percentage points. Current polling shows a tight race, with Kemp holding a small lead over Abrams.
They’ve got plenty of money for the campaign, particularly Abrams. Less than two months after the May primary, her One Georgia campaign group raised more than $18 million.
Abrams’s coffers are filled with large contributions from progressive megadonor George Soros and smaller ones from Hollywood celebrities such as Steven Spielberg, Barbra Streisand, Tom Hanks, and Bryan Cranston.
Kemp and his Georgians First group have raised $7.6 million to date.
Kemp’s campaign is reaching some big donors in Texas but none who feature that kind of star power. Meanwhile, he doesn’t need as much money, University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock says.
“An incumbent runs on his record,” Bullock said. “They sometimes run away from it, but Brian [Kemp] won’t do that. He’s quite pleased with his 3 1/2 years [in office].”
Bullock said that challengers need a lot of money to get their message out. They don’t necessarily need to raise more than the incumbent, but the more they spend, the better they perform.
“They need enough to make the incumbent the issue. They have to make some voters rethink their decision [to vote for him].”
How much money incumbents spend is inversely proportional to how well they’re doing, he said. If they’re doing well, they don’t have to spend as much. If they’re behind, they have to spend more to catch up.
Abrams’s fundraising is impressive but falls short of what some candidates are raising in other large governor races, according to state databases or nonprofit watchdog groups that track campaign finance. Most of them, though, are incumbents.
Republican Greg Abbott, the incumbent in Texas, has raised $72 million. Republican Ron DeSantis, Florida’s incumbent, has taken in more than $96 million. Democrat Kathy Hochul, New York’s governor for less than a year since Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, garnered almost $40 million. Democrat Gavin Newsom, running for reelection in California and not facing strong opposition, has raised more than $18 million. Republican Mike DeWine in Ohio has raised $22 million.
One of the few non-incumbents to raise that kind of money is Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, with $20.5 million. The state’s two-term attorney general, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, is seeking to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who is term-limited.
About two-thirds of Abrams’s gold rush in May and June came from a handful of million-dollar donors: Soros’s Democracy PAC II, $2.5 million; AFSCME, the public employees’ union, $1.02 million; Democratic Governors’ Association, $2 million; the Abrams-founded Fair Fight Inc. PAC in Georgia, $1.5 million; the IBEW union, $1 million; Karla T. Jurvetson, a California psychiatrist and philanthropist once married to one of Elon Musk’s early Silicon Valley backers, $2.5 million; Elizabeth Simons of California, $1 million; and Selwyn Donald Sussman, a financial adviser, $1 million.
Another big donor, of $250,000, was Emily’s List, to which Soros’s PAC itself donates, and the Way to Win Action Fund, begun by the founders of eBay, $500,000.
Unions stepped up for Abrams: the American Federation of Teachers, $400,000; Communication Workers of America, $150,000; the National Education Association teachers union, $300,000; Service Employees International Union, $500,000; United Association Political Issues Fund, a plumbers and pipefitters union, $250,000; and United Domestic Workers of America, $20,000.
Some other big donors included philanthropist Melinda Gates, $200,000; Reid Hoffman of Greylock Partners, $400,000; Lisa Minsky-Primus of New York, $500,000; Steve Phillips of San Francisco, president of the Sandler Phillips Center, $250,000; Teresa Roseborough of Atlanta, a lawyer for Home Depot, $100,000; Lynn Schusterman and Stacy H. Schusterman, both of Tulsa, Oklahoma, $250,000 each.
“She has the backing of liberal billionaires in New York, California, and Chicago. She’ll outspend us,” Kemp’s spokesman Tate Mitchell said. “We have the resources to keep up.
“She’s been the great unifier for Republicans. She’s made it clear she intends to use the Georgia governor’s office to run for president, so Republicans are paying attention to this race. She wants to bring the liberal agenda to Georgia.”
Abrams previously showed herself to be a strong fundraiser, including raising money for other candidates, said Fred Hicks, an Atlanta political strategist who usually works for Democrats.
She’s attracted women donors, Hicks said. After Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump in 2016 and the subsequent Women’s March in Washington, Abrams was seen as a strong female candidate for the future, and women donors, realizing they needed to up their game, backed her.
The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision last month overturning Roe v. Wade could provide more momentum for women to support the candidacy of Abrams, a steady supporter of abortion access, Hicks said.
It will depend in part on what the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals decides about Kemp’s Heartbeat bill, Hicks said.
The bill, which Kemp signed into law in 2019, would ban most abortions once a fetal heartbeat was detected, usually around six weeks of pregnancy. Opponents sued, and a federal judge ruled the law unconstitutional in 2020.
“If courts strike down the Heartbeat bill, you’ll see increased support and enthusiasm among Republicans. And if the court upholds Heartbeat, you will see an increase in donation among Democratic donors and an increase in enthusiasm,” Hicks said.
“As [Bill Clinton adviser James] Carville said, ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’ Everything is tempered by the economy, inflation, and the rising cost of everything,” Hicks said.
“In 2018 [during the first Abrams–Kemp race], you didn’t have that out there. Trump was president and saying dumb things, but the economy was in a different place.”
“Everyone concedes the national environment is making it tough for Abrams and [Democratic incumbent senator Raphael] Warnock,” Hicks said. “They’re trying to figure out how to navigate it. The Democrats want to keep it local”—issues like health care, social services, and jobs—“while the Republicans want to nationalize it. That’s the contest. Whoever defines it wins.”
Kemp has plenty of local issues to run on, Bullock said. His supporters are satisfied with his work on issues such as abortion, electoral integrity, and guns, as he signed a bill allowing people to carry weapons without a permit.
He acted promptly to reopen the state relatively quickly during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Kemp’s record allowed him to run strongly in the GOP primary against Trump-backed David Perdue.
Bullock said that Trump’s endorsement of Kemp in 2018 was more important then; Kemp now has his own record to run on.
