Women in blue states have far fewer babies than those in red states as the U.S. birthrate plunges downward, according to a conservative think tank analysis.
While political affiliation may seem like an odd determiner of birth rates, states that gave Biden the largest share of votes in 2020 have the lowest birth rates, according to Chuck DeVore, vice president of national initiatives at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.
On the other hand, birth rates appear to be highest in states with a lower cost of living, and where more people practice organized religion, he told The Epoch Times.
Red states generally have a lower cost of living because they tend to have fewer regulations and lower taxes. And the price of housing is usually lower in red states because of fewer land restrictions, he said.
DeVore said the most significant determinant of family formation is a “connection to organized religion and a conservative worldview.”
His idea to analyze the connection between political affiliation and birth rate came after reading a Wall Street Journal essay, “Why Americans Have Fewer Babies,” in May.
Provisional monthly figures show that about 3.66 million babies were born nationwide last year, declining 15 percent since 2007. However, the number of women in prime childbearing years is up by 9 percent, according to the article.
Popular reasons for low birth rates cited by mainstream media point to material reasons such as unaffordable home prices, student loan debt, and the lower earning power of men compared to women, who tend to be better educated than men, DeVore said.
Faith Over Big Government
Pres. Joe Biden and Democratic leaders have proposed paid family leave, subsidized child care, and federally funded preschools to alleviate barriers to having children, DeVore said.Yet the birth rate is lowest in some of the bluest of states with high wages and high-quality, affordable child care, he said.
States with the lowest birth rates—according to the Centers for Disease Control—are Vermont, Rhode Island, Oregon, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut.
Those with the highest birth rates are South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska, Utah, and Louisiana.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Real Personal Income, a measure of earnings that looks at a state’s cost of living, shows no meaningful statistical connection to the birth rate. The trend being slightly negative—meaning those states with higher income have slightly lower birth rates, he explained.
There were significant differences in the birth rate among women 15 to 44 years in 2021, he said.
Women in South Dakota, the top state for childbirth, bore almost 53 percent more babies per capita than their peers in last place, Vermont, he said.
“The fact—and it is a fact—that faith, a conservative mindset, and a low cost of living found mainly in red states are associated with family formation, confounds many politicians,” DeVore said in a statement.
“The solution to higher, societally healthier birth rates appears not to involve much government at all.”
Faith is part of the gap between red and blue state birth rates, he said. Christians believe the world will end just like some hard-core environmentalists.
The difference is that Christians believe that God is in charge, whereas climate change disciples believe humanity is in control.
Those who believe in God are not as fearful about the future, DeVore said.
Meanwhile, fear that time is running out for Earth is a talking point for many Democrats pushing the Green New Deal.
The notion that young adults do not have children due to planet-killing climate change has been bandied by New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The socialist lawmaker suggested in 2019 that it may be unethical to have children, given the ravages of climate change that will impact the Earth in the coming years.
Others have openly suggested that giving birth selfishly adds to the world’s carbon footprint.
So a grandparent would be responsible for one-quarter of each of their grandchildren’s emissions, and so forth down the line, the study said.
Each child adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average female, which is 5.7 times her lifetime emissions, according to the study.
Willingness to Sacrifice
But Catherine Pakaluk, an associate professor for the Busch School of Business at the Catholic University of America, doesn’t believe fear of climate change is a significant reason behind the declining birth rate.Pakaluk, who has been studying declining birth rates in preparation for a book, agrees there’s a pattern of lower birth rates in many blue states.
“That definitely agrees with, or I would say, squares with the research that I’ve been doing the last couple of years,” she said.
The reason is both societal and economic, Pakaluk said.
After talking to women in red and blue states across the country, the decision to have children boils down to how willing they are to make sacrifices.
The two main reasons women delay having children are because it means a lifestyle change and a loss of career opportunity, which tend to be more substantial in blue states, she said.
Mothers and fathers know that their lives will be forever changed. They know that there will be sleepless nights and worry for their children for at least the next 18 years, she said.
Most new mothers like to have a part-time work schedule, she said. For many, that means the loss of economic opportunities that go along with promotions.
Things like child care, while expensive, are short-term, Pakaluk pointed out, but career opportunity loss for women could be much more costly.
“In blue states, where incomes are higher, and women have to have greater education, that opportunity cost is a lot bigger,” she said.
In her research, the thing that causes women to look past these barriers is their value of children.
“Think about all those pieces; that is the cost,” she said. “It takes a very large appreciation for the value of children to do it anyway. And that comes from our faith. That comes from religion.”
Religion has been sidelined in red states, but more so in those dominated by blue states, she said. State and federal decisions have made it economically difficult for religious schools to exist.
“We crowded out the role of religion in shaping our lives,” she said.
And with the demise of organized religion comes the loss of values that go along with it.
And while having children may mean some sacrifice, the reward can be life-changing.
“They make you work harder. They make you better, right? They make you less selfish,” Pakaluk said. “You discover things that you could do because you want to be better for your children.”
