A Look at What’s in Store for the US Port Industry in 2025

A stack of shipping containers in the Port of Miami in Miami on May 19, 2016. Carlo Allegri/Reuters

Container cargo volume at the United States’ 361 commercial ports will grow by a modest 2 percent in 2025, a significant decline from 2024’s projected 9 percent increase, according to a November 2024 financial forecast by Moody’s Ratings.

Slowing economic growth and weakening consumer spending are among the primary factors influencing the flat projection, although Moody’s notes that its forecasted 2 percent increase is regarded as stable, while “a positive outlook would be considered if volume growth were to exceed 3 percent” in 2025.

Moody’s said its estimated 9 percent 2024 boost was buoyed by an 11 percent increase in shipping activity over the first eight months of the year, largely a result of retailers’ restocking inventories after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted manufacturing.

Non-economic issues that could skew 2025 projections for U.S. ports and maritime industries include a looming Jan. 15 longshoremen strike, cybersecurity concerns, hurricanes, water levels in the Panama Canal, shipping attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, and President-elect Donald Trump’s potential tariff levies.

“The incoming president’s proposed tariffs, which could range from 10 percent to 60 percent on imports, might reduce trade and lead to a decline in cargo volumes, particularly affecting ports reliant on high trade volumes,” Moody’s states.

According to a report by the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA), ocean shipping transports 40 percent of the nation’s goods, directly supporting 2.5 million jobs, including 1 million employed in ports, and generating $2.9 trillion in economic activity nationwide that indirectly affects 21.8 million jobs—one out of every eight jobs in the United States.

U.S. ports face growing infrastructure issues, as illustrated by the March crash of a Singaporean cargo carrier in an allision that destroyed Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge. Few U.S. ports can accommodate the Panamax and other large container ships that are increasingly dominating ocean trade.

The incoming Trump administration and Congress, after it is sworn in on Jan. 3, face pressures from port authorities to further increase spending to expand and improve U.S. ports beyond allocations earmarked in 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

According to an AAPA analysis, the BIL and IRA earmarked $17 billion for port infrastructure, $6.5 billion for program upgrades, and another $27 billion that ports can apply for over the next five years, less than 1.2 percent of the money laid aside in both bills for infrastructure projects.

After decades of underinvestment, the nation’s port infrastructure and maritime industries need more money in order to meet the demands of today’s global market, representatives from AAPA, National Association of Waterfront Employers, National Maritime Safety Association, and other groups and associations said during a congressional hearing at the Port of Miami in April 2024.

Port of Miami Deputy Port Director Frederick Wong, testifying on behalf of the AAPA, said it is also imperative to improve roadways and rail access to ports. Although funds are available through the BIL and IRA, these will expire in five years. Meanwhile, annual appropriations for port improvements have declined.

The nation’s ports see more than 80,000 oceangoing ships yearly but fewer than 200 from U.S.-flagged vessels, according to a Heritage Foundation report.

Rebuilding the nation’s atrophied maritime industry and merchant marine is a long-term endeavor vital to national security and will require a significant investment in developing a skilled workforce to operate ports and merchant ships. The average wage of a port and maritime employee is almost $100,000, which is 20 percent more than that of the average U.S. worker, the AAPA notes.

Longshoremen work next to a container ship at Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., in October 2011. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

1st Test: Jan. 15 Dockworker Strike

High-value labor presents the most pressing issue facing the nation’s ports. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents shipping lines and terminal operators, are locked in a contract standoff. A strike could cost the U.S. economy between $5 billion and $7 billion a week within a month.

A temporary Oct. 3, 2024, agreement that ended a three-day work stoppage by 47,000 ILA dockworkers, paralyzing 36 ports from Portland, Maine, to Brownsville, Texas, expires on Jan. 15.

The October 2024 agreement between the ILA and USMX resolved several matters of contention—including a 62 percent wage increase over six years—but negotiations over automation have been stymied, and neither side appears willing to resume talks.

The ILA represents workers in 36 Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports, while the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) represents dockworkers in 29 West Coast ports. In June 2023, the ILWU and the Pacific Maritime Association agreed to a six-year contract that included a $4.62 hourly raise in the first year and $2 hourly raises each year after.

The ILA–USMX impasse prompted Denmark-based A.P. Moller–Maersk, the world’s second-largest ocean cargo carrier, to issue an advisory on Dec. 31, 2024, suggesting that customers redirect container traffic to West Coast ports.

There have been “no new developments” in contract talks, the advisory noted.

“We strongly encourage our customers to pick up their laden containers and return empty containers at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports before January 15,” it stated.

“This proactive measure will help mitigate any potential disruptions at the terminals.”

The ILA maintains that USMX won’t budge on what it terms “semi-automated cranes” that the labor union maintains are near-fully automated and pose cybersecurity risks, whereas port operators argue that the high-tech cranes enhance safety, efficiency, and port capacity.

Trump, whose second inauguration is set for Jan. 20, appears to be backing the dockworkers after meeting with ILA President Harold Daggett and Vice President Dennis Daggett at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 12, 2024.

“There has been a lot of discussion having to do with automation on United States docks. I’ve studied automation and know just about everything there is to know about it,” Trump said on his social media platform, Truth Social.

“The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American workers–in this case, our longshoremen.”