5 Undecided House Races Will Determine Size of GOP’s Narrow Majority

The outcomes in Alaska, California, Iowa, and Ohio will define the voting cushion that Republicans will have for the next two years.
5 Undecided House Races Will Determine Size of GOP’s Narrow Majority
The U.S. Capitol building on Nov. 13, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Stacy Robinson
Updated:
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Although two weeks have passed since election night, several races for the U.S. House of Representatives have yet to be called.

Republicans are expected to maintain a majority in the House, but the outcome of five races will determine how much of a voting cushion the GOP will have for the next two years.

At stake are the sweeping changes promised by President-elect Donald Trump, who will need nearly all Republicans to vote along party lines to fund and push through his initiatives.

These include renewal of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires on Dec. 31, 2025; funding for his promised border wall; and other infrastructure projects such as a proposed re-expansion of lunar travel and space-related manufacturing.

In some states, the delay in declaring a winner is caused by the verification process for mail-in ballots.

California sends every registered voter a mail-in ballot, and if a ballot is filled out incorrectly, it is not discarded. Instead, it is “cured,” or fixed, by poll workers who contact the voter to verify his or her details.

Thirty-three U.S. states have ballot curing, but the large states with a large proportion of mail-in ballots take longer to finish counting.

In some states and the District of Columbia, votes received after Election Day may be counted weeks afterward, as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 5. Deadlines for local and state officials to certify the election vary from state to state.

Here are the races to watch:

Alaska: At-Large

GOP candidate Nick Begich leads incumbent Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola, a Democrat, 48.5 percent to 46.3 percent. Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe has 3.9 percent, and Democrat Eric Hafner has less than 1 percent.

The election will advance to ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 20. When they voted, voters ranked the four candidates from their first preference to their last. Because no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated. Any ballot with that candidate ranked first will instead have its second preference counted. If that still doesn’t yield a majority for one candidate, the process will be repeated by eliminating the candidate in third place.

Alaska has no local certification deadline, but its state deadline is Nov. 30.

California’s 13th Congressional District

Incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is ahead by a little more than 2,000 votes in his race against Democrat Adam Gray in the San Joaquin Valley district. Duarte prevailed over Gray in 2022 following a redistricting cycle in 2020. That election was also narrow; Duarte won by 564 votes.

California’s 45th Congressional District

This race is razor-thin. After taking the lead on Election Day by 11,000 votes, incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) has fallen behind Democrat Derek Tran by 102 votes in the district, which includes Orange and Los Angeles counties.
California’s elections must be certified by local officials within 30 days of the general election—this year on Dec. 5.

Iowa’s 1st Congressional District

Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) is 801 votes ahead of Democrat Christina Bohannan, who requested a recount. Because the margin is within 1 percent of the total votes cast, the state of Iowa will cover the cost.
Miller-Meeks was unsuccessful in her bid for House Republican Conference secretary this month; the post was eventually won by Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.).

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

Incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), vying for a 19th term, is nearly 1,200 votes ahead of GOP challenger Derek Merrin. Kaptur, who was first elected to the House in 1982, is the longest-serving woman in congressional history.

Local officials have until Nov. 26 to certify the election, but Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has said he expects the process to be completed by Nov. 20.

Stacy Robinson
Stacy Robinson
Author
Stacy Robinson is a politics reporter for the Epoch Times, occasionally covering cultural and human interest stories. Based out of Washington, D.C. he can be reached at [email protected]