5 Takeaways From the New York Special Election

Tom Suozzi on the campaign trail at his Westbury campaign office in Westbury, N.Y., on Feb. 13, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

News Analysis

As a powerful winter storm bore down on them, voters in New York’s Third Congressional District chose a familiar face, Democrat Tom Suozzi, to serve the Long Island and Queens communities once represented by Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.)

Mr. Suozzi’s opponent, Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip, came out the loser.

“We are fighters. Yes, we lost, but it doesn’t mean we are going to end here,” Ms. Pilip said after the race was called.

Mr. Suozzi said in his victory speech, “We, you, won this race because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions.”

“The answer is to bring people together,” he told a raucous crowd of supporters at Crest Hollow Country Club on Long Island.

Even before the day of the election, registered Democrats managed a stronger early voting turnout than registered Republicans, at 42 percent to 34 percent—a bad omen for conservatives hoping to boost Ms. Pilip. On Feb. 13, the polls opened at 6 a.m. and closed at 9 p.m.

The results set the tone ahead of the 2024 general election in November, which could see incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden defending his record against Republican President Donald Trump.

But New York’s Third District is an unusually wealthy, urban, and historically Democrat-friendly territory that Mr. Santos first scored in an upset victory. For that reason and others, it might not be the best place to draw broader conclusions about the presidential contest and congressional map.

A Test Case for Immigration Appeals

The special election results show how voters in at least one part of the United States responded to the illegal immigration crisis.

Ms. Pilip, an Ethiopian Jew, is an immigrant from Ethiopia via Israel, where she met her Ukrainian American husband and served in the Israel Defense Force. She hasn’t hesitated to make the crisis at the southern border a central theme in her campaign.

“You have the power to stop the Suozzi/Biden open borders and Sanctuary City mess,” Ms. Pilip wrote on social media platform X in the hours before the polls closed.

Days before the special election, she touted an endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council and voiced concern over a migrant tent city in Queens Village.

Republicans sought to tie the Long Island-born Mr. Suozzi to lax immigration policy and drew attention to a 2019 social media post in which he instructed illegal aliens on what they could do “if ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] comes knocking.”

Mr. Suozzi argued in a recent CNN appearance that Ms. Pilip’s opposition to a recent Senate border compromise means she is effectively “keeping the border open and bringing more migrants to New York.”

But in a Feb. 13 press conference, he voiced opposition to impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Ms. Pilip, by contrast, vowed to support that endeavor. Mr. Mayorkas was impeached later that day.

Democrats’ attempts to tack to the center on mass immigration suggest Republicans have an edge on the issue. But dissatisfaction with the border can’t deliver wins everywhere.

Mazi Pilip (C) on the campaign trail outside the McKenna Elementary School at a press conference in Massapequa, N.Y., on Feb. 13, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Low Turnout

Epoch Times reporters observed that election-day turnout was abysmal as voters dealt with several inches of snow on the ground. Both campaigns offered rides to voting locations, some of which shut down because of the weather conditions.

“Need a ride to the polls? Be safe, click on the link below, and Team Suozzi will get you safely to and from the polls,” Mr. Suozzi posted on X.

“There’s too much at stake in this election to stay home. Team Mazi is offering free rides to voting locations,” Ms. Pilip wrote on X. Her post included a phone number and a link to her website to request a ride.

Nonetheless, polling places saw empty voting booths. For example, a gym in Woodbury had empty booths stretching to the back of the room.

But some citizens were undeterred by Mother Nature.

“I would never miss it because I really want the person I voted for to win,” Lucia Vivianni, 87, told The Epoch Times. She voted for Ms. Pilip, saying that the candidate would “bring good changes.”

Marianne Schmidt, 73, regretted not voting early.

She told The Epoch Times she had to go to the polls to cast her ballot for Mr. Suozzi because Ms. Pilip is too much like Mr. Santos.

Supporters of Tom Suozzi celebrate his victory in Woodbury, Long Island, on Feb. 13, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

House Balance

With Mr. Suozzi’s victory, the narrow GOP majority gets even narrower, with 219 Republicans to the 213 Democrats in the chamber. This means Republicans can afford to lose only two votes on bills on which all Democrats vote one way. This has ramifications for issues ranging from government funding to foreign assistance, especially for Ukraine and Israel in light of the Senate’s passing its $95.3 billion package.

House members could deploy a rarely used and seldom successful mechanism called a discharge petition. It would force a House floor vote on a measure if a majority of the lower congressional chamber signs onto the petition, thereby circumventing the speaker, who controls what gets a vote on the floor.

The GOP’s slim margin is one reason it had to move fast to impeach Mr. Mayorkas on Feb. 13 on a 214–213 vote.

With the addition of Mr. Suozzi, the GOP will have to wait until the late spring to get a little more breathing room. That will likely come with the special elections to replace retiring Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), both of whom represent solidly Republican districts.

The narrower majority is expected to cause bigger headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has come under fire from conservatives for backing measures to fund the government. This could cause Mr. Johnson to lose the gavel like Mr. McCarthy did, as it takes only one House member to put forth a motion to vacate. Mr. McCarthy’s ouster caused the House to essentially shut down until a new speaker was picked.

Expect the House GOP to target the district later this year. A rematch between Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Pilip is possible–and after Republican Lee Zeldin’s strong performance in his losing 2022 gubernatorial bid, it looks tantalizingly like Trump country.

Campaign signs for Republican presidential candidates former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley stand next to a sign asking voters to write in President Joe Biden in New Hampshire's primary election in Loudon, N.H., on Jan. 19, 2024. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

2024 Implications

Mr. Suozzi’s success could signal a path for moderate Democrats. The congressman belonged to the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus while in Congress. In addition, although the left wing of the Democratic Party has challenged Biden administration policy on the Israel–Hamas war, Mr. Suozzi has had strong support from the Jewish Democratic Council of America. Haaretz, a left-leaning publication in Israel, described Mr. Suozzi as “pro-Israel.” Ms. Pilip thus enjoyed less of an advantage on that issue.

Pro-Palestinian hecklers interrupted Mr. Suozzi’s victory speech on Long Island on Feb. 13. They were drowned out by chants of “Suozzi! Suozzi!”

In a Glen Cove press conference, Mr. Suozzi listed immigration, taxes, crime, and public safety among the issues “people care about” in the district. Under other circumstances, those could be strong areas for Republicans.

Yet Mr. Santos’s expulsion and national notoriety make the special election unique. While Ms. Pilip sought to distance herself from the man she once endorsed, Mr. Suozzi continually tied her to him, repeatedly labeling his opponent “Santos 2.0” in an election day press conference. And Mr. Suozzi also represented the district for six years, improving voters’ familiarity with him.

Ms. Pilip’s background came under scrutiny for non-Santos-related reasons, too. Though she is running as a Republican, she is a registered Democrat.

“Why would you not register as a Republican if you’re going to run as a Republican?” Lt. Col. Allen West, a Republican and a retired military officer, said to The Epoch Times.

She has also said she will not stand with President Trump in the event he is convicted of a crime. Many other Republican candidates can be expected to align themselves with the former president.

The Cook Political Report rates the district a Republican toss-up in Congress in 2024.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about lowering prescription drug costs at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., on Dec. 14, 2023. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

A Little Win for Biden

Mr. Suozzi’s Tuesday victory could bode well for President Biden ahead of the November general election. At the very least, the outcome suggests that President Trump wouldn’t have a cakewalk in New York and other traditionally blue states.

New York’s Third District has delivered for President Biden before. In 2020, he garnered substantially more than 50 percent of the vote and bested President Trump by close to 10 points. That’s in keeping with past choices by an electorate that has usually favored Democratic presidential candidates, though not usually by overwhelming margins.

But in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican Lee Zeldin beat Ms. Hochul by more than 10 points. That fueled speculation about whether the more conservative-leaning suburban portions of the district could give Republicans the edge–one that might be seen in similar districts across the country.

Mr. Suozzi also raised far more money than Ms. Pilip. Federal Election Commission filings show he received $4.4 million in donations from October 2023 through Jan. 24, 2024, and Ms. Pilip raised just $1.3 million during that same period.

That’s broadly in line with a national trend that spells trouble for the GOP up and down the ticket.

Last year, 2023, was Republicans’ worst fundraising year since 2013. While the Republican National Committee, led by Ronna Romney McDaniel, raised just $87.2 million that year, the Democratic National Committee raised $119.9 million.

Polling ahead of the contest consistently showed Mr. Suozzi winning against Ms. Pilip.

Yet President Biden is coping with many negatives, including low approval ratings and, with the release of Robert Hur’s special counsel report, renewed fears over his mental competence.

He’s also polling behind President Trump in seven battleground states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in January.

Michael Washburn and Juliette Fairley contributed to this report.

Correction: A previous version of the article stated incorrectly which candidate George Santos defeated in 2022 to capture his seat. The Epoch Times regrets the error.