The 2024 presidential election will likely come down to four key states, according to a newly released Cook Political Report by Amy Walter. The report includes the author’s 2024 Electoral College ratings and analysis.
“This has been an incredibly volatile 15 years of politics, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at the results of the Electoral College,” Ms. Walter said.
The Cook Political Report describes itself as a non-partisan weekly newsletter that provides in-depth analysis of American politics and upcoming elections for the House of Representatives, the Senate, state governorships, and the presidency.
In her report, the political analyst emphasizes two major factors contributing to the narrow battleground of the 2024 Electoral College.
Firstly, she notes the striking partisan stability of the Electoral College over the past 15 years, with an unprecedented 80 percent of states consistently voting for the same party in the last four presidential elections. This level of consistency, as Ms. Walter highlights, is unmatched in 20th-century politics.
Secondly, the potential repeat match-up between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden adds an element of familiarity and predictability to the 2024 race. “While this doesn’t mean that a rematch ends in the exact same place it did in 2020, it does take some of the uncertainty out of the equation,” Ms. Walter said.
Toss Up States
Notably, only four states, collectively accounting for 56 Electoral College votes, are considered by the author as “Toss Ups”: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Winning 270 Electoral College votes is required to secure the presidency.Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have historically been seen as Democratic strongholds, shifted to narrowly support Mr. Trump in 2016. Since then, Republicans have faced some challenges in statewide races.
Ms. Walter’s analysis points to the significance of moderate voters in Pennsylvania, who have increasingly identified as Democrats or independents, shaping the state’s political landscape.
Wisconsin, a battleground state with a history of close margins, poses the need for Republicans to address declining support in suburban areas and appeal to conservative Latino voters to remain competitive, according to Ms. Walter’s report.
Emerging as relative newcomers to the toss up category, Arizona and Georgia are cited in the report as critical battlegrounds. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, typically plays a decisive role in Arizona’s outcome, with both parties aiming to court the state’s significant Latino population.
“For Arizona, it all comes down to Maricopa County (anchored by Phoenix),” Ms. Walter said. “In 2016, Trump carried the county by 45,000 votes en route to his three-point statewide victory.
“Since then, however, only two major statewide Republicans have won the county: Gov. Doug Ducey in his 2018 reelection bid and Kimberly Yee in her 2022 contest for state treasurer. Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema both won the Phoenix region by more significant margins. In 2020, Biden narrowly carried the Phoenix area in his squeaker of a win.”
Republicans have a stronghold in Georgia’s rural and small-town areas, but they’ve suffered setbacks in some traditionally Republican counties.
“In Georgia, the suburbs around Atlanta hold the keys to success,” Ms. Walter asserted. “Even as Republicans dominate in rural areas and small towns, they’ve lost significant ground in once GOP-friendly Cobb and Gwinnett counties. To win statewide, a Republican doesn’t need to win them. They just need to remain somewhat competitive.
The Leaning States
Ms. Walter designates Michigan and Nevada as leaning Democrat states, highlighting Democrats’ strength in suburban Detroit, particularly Oakland County, and western Michigan around Grand Rapids. The analysis also focuses on the importance of Democrats’ ability to rally young voters and the narrowing gap with Republicans among Latino and Black voters.Nevada, known for close elections in recent years, has remained a Democratic stronghold since 2008, while Ms. Walter points out that Republicans have made inroads with voters of color.
“This cycle, Democrats argue that the state’s controversial 12-week abortion ban will help to energize and turn out many of those groups—especially younger voters—that have not turned out in previous elections,” Ms. Walter said.
In the leaning Republican category, North Carolina emerges as a likely target for Democrats. Despite significant population growth, Republicans’ effective turnout and get-out-the-vote efforts continue to play a crucial role in statewide races like this one.
Ms. Walter quoted North Carolina election expert and Catawba College political science chair Michael Bitzer who summed up the post-2022 political analysis saying: “For Republicans, it’s simple: keep doing what you do. In the short-run, higher turnout rates for key GOP groups will continue to see you win the ‘competitive but stuck’ battleground electoral environment, at least state-wide.
“For Democrats, it’s also simple: if you want to keep your federal candidates getting 48 to 49 percent of the vote, but lose to Republicans by the narrowest of margins time after time, keep doing what you are doing. Keep getting your registered partisans to show up just at the state-level, but allow your partisan opponents to show up at a higher rate. Ignore turning out voters under 40 years old, ignore turning out core Black/African American voters, and ignore your regional dominance in the central cities.”
