The indictment of former President Donald Trump will give him a short-term boost in the Republican primary, political analysts say, but the long-term impact is yet to be seen.
The Manhattan grand jury indictment has deepened the nation’s partisan divide, they said, noting that this may not be the last prosecution against Trump, who’s currently subject to three other ongoing investigations.
“In the short term, the indictment will reinforce the two-person race and strengthen Trump,” Richmond-based veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times, referring to the competition between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the Republican presidential candidate nomination.
“But this [indictment] is not likely to be the only one. And the question is, as these pile up later this spring and summer, will it open up a lane for someone other than these two?” he added.
“We’re in uncharted territory, and I think we’ll likely twists and turns beyond the immediate impact.”
On Thursday, Trump became the first former president in history to be criminally charged when a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him in relation to the payment of hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels weeks before the 2016 presidential election. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg had been investigating whether the payment, made by then-Trump attorney Michael Cohen, was misclassified.
While the charges remain under seal, experts widely expect them to include felony-level falsification of business records. This charge would require the prosecution to prove that the fraud was intended to cover up a violation of federal campaign finance laws—which some legal analysts believe to be a high-risk legal strategy.
The charges will be made public during the arraignment on the afternoon of April 4 in Manhattan, when Trump, who has maintained his innocence, is expected to plead not guilty.
The Trump campaign’s fundraising efforts immediately following the indictment have paid off. On Friday, it announced that it had raised over $4 million within 24 hours. More than 25 percent came from first-time donors to the Trump campaign, the campaign said, adding that the average contribution amount was $34 and Americans from all 50 states donated within the first five hours of news of the indictment.
“This incredible surge of grassroots contributions confirms that the American people see the indictment of President Trump as a disgraceful weaponization of our justice system by a Soros-funded prosecutor,” the campaign said in a press release.
“The image here is one of Trump as a victim, a martyr for voters,” Robert Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, told The Epoch Times.
“I think the ones who think of him as a martyr are his strong supporters anyway; this confirms that he’s under assault and a victim in an unfair way. And especially given the fact that this particular case of all the cases in play here it’s really the weakest.”
Deepened Partisan Divide
The divergence of opinion on the indictment has revealed deep national divisions. In a Quinnipiac University poll released a day before the indictment, 62 percent of respondents thought the Manhattan district attorney’s case was politically motivated: 93 percent of Republicans, 70 percent of independents, and 29 percent of Democrats. Only 32 percent believed the case was motivated by law.Republicans have almost universally condemned the indictment as a partisan hit job and another instance of Trump being victimized by a weaponized criminal justice system.
“The weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head,” DeSantis, widely seen as Trump’s most threatening rival for the Republican presidential nomination, said in a tweet on the day of Trump’s indictment. “It is un-American.”
“The Democrat Party’s hatred for Donald Trump knows no bounds. The ‘substance’ of this political persecution is utter garbage. This is completely unprecedented and is a catastrophic escalation in the weaponization of the justice system,” Cruz wrote.
But with this, Trump can expect a boost in the primaries.
“This [indictment] helps Trump, especially in the GOP primary, because it comes off as Bragg/Dems using the Justice system to go after a political opponent. And that won’t sit well with voters,” Ford O'Connell, a lawyer and Republican strategist, told The Epoch Times.
Meanwhile, Democrats reacted to the news with joy and vindication.
“It’s the smallest and longest-awaited bit of comeuppance for tens of millions of Americans, but man, we’ll take it,” Democrat strategist Christy Setzer told The Epoch Times.
Max Burns, another Democratic strategist, told The Epoch Times, “Now is a great opportunity for so-called ‘law and order’ Republicans to prove their commitment to the rule of law by respecting the decision of the Grand Jury and allowing our judicial system to operate without interference.”
GOP Playing Field
According to Shapiro, Republican-leaning independents who vote in the GOP primaries will now likely take to Trump. These voters would take cues from their political leaders, who had “reacted very hostile toward the indictment,” he said.“Right now, I think the playing field and the primary looks a little bit different, and to Trump’s advantage,” Shapiro said, adding that things could change as potential indictment efforts unfold in other investigations against Trump.
But for now, Trump and DeSantis have soaked up most of the media attention, he said, meaning other GOP presidential hopefuls might want to reevaluate their campaigns.
“I think, if all these other candidates are thinking rationally, they should think they need to sit on the sidelines, hope that Trump drops out, and beyond that look ahead to 2028,” Shapiro said.
Meanwhile, DeSantis, who has come out in support of Trump in the indictment, may also need to recalibrate.
“How he’s going to pivot from this and figure out a way to gain supportive Republican primary voters against Trump is going to be a little bit of a challenge at this point,” he added.
In his view, the reinforcement of a two-candidate race may give DeSantis a better chance of winning the GOP presidential nomination because primary voters want to pick someone who can beat the Democratic candidate. Moreover, while Republican-leaning independents may drive the GOP primary, complete independents will play a decisive role in the general election.
“The stakes are tremendous in 2024, especially given the fact that the parties now are so different in terms of their political ideologies and objectives,” said Shapiro. “Nobody talks about this, but it’s in the context of the possibility that the Republicans can keep the House, win the Senate, and have unified government.”
“The momentum is still there for Republicans,” he added. “Especially given that people are still pessimistic about the state of things in the United States, although that could change.”
Potential Additional Indictments
Both Holsworth and Shapiro noted that there might be additional indictments of Trump resulting from the special counsel and Georgia investigations.Special counsel Jack Smith is investigating Trump’s handling of classified documents, and his alleged role in interfering with 2020 election results and the lawful transfer of power on Jan. 6, 2021. A Fulton County grand jury is probing whether Trump unlawfully interfered with the 2020 election in Georgia.
“I think the more important cases to watch are the Jan. 6 investigations and the Georgia vote investigation that could have the effect of strengthening opposition to Trump among Republican-oriented voters,” said Shapiro.
He said DeSantis “has been very effective politically” and enjoys high stature and credibility in Florida. “He has really strengthened the Republican Party in Florida; Florida has turned into a red state.”
However, Shapiro doesn’t think political effectiveness would be a strong argument for DeSantis against Trump, who’s also proven himself on this front. Trump, he said, could achieve an “enormous amount” if he wins the White House and Republicans control the House and the Senate in 2024. The former president’s track record in political effectiveness was good as long as he didn’t do things that the rest of the Republican Party didn’t like, noted Shapiro.
Given that the primaries are a series of events, Shapiro said, for DeSantis, momentum from early primaries would be crucial to proving his viability and strength as a candidate versus Trump.
There’s also a third opinion that the indictment won’t matter in the long run.
“I honestly think that this indictment will be a footnote in history and will have zero impact on the Republican primary and the 2024 general election,” Republican strategist Brian Darling told The Epoch Times. “The legal result will be months and months of appeals on motions to dismiss and other procedural hurdles that come up because this is an unprecedented case of first impression.
“Expect a long drawn out process and the American people quickly losing interest because the stakes in the case are so low.”
Mark Tapscott and Gary Bai contributed to this article.
