Referendums in four Russia-held regions of Ukraine wrapped up on Sept. 27 amid warnings from Kyiv that Ukrainian citizens who took part in organizing the polling could expect to face jail time.
“We are talking about hundreds of collaborators,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak said. “They will be prosecuted for treason.”
The vote, which began on Sept. 23, will decide whether residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia want to remain in Ukraine or join the Russian Federation.
According to Russian sources, voter turnout as of Sept. 26 stood at 87 percent in Donetsk; 84 percent in Luhansk; 64 percent in Kherson; and 66 percent in Zaporizhzhia.
On Sept. 27, Russia’s Tass news agency quoted Donetsk’s pro-Russian mayor as saying that, during the polling, Donetsk city had come under heavy Ukrainian shellfire.
Kyiv and its Western supporters, for their part, say the polls represent the de facto “annexation” of the territories by Russia and have vowed not to recognize the results.
Russian forces and their local allies currently hold about 60 percent of Donetsk and almost all of Luhansk. Moscow already recognizes both territories, which together comprise Ukraine’s Russian-speaking Donbas region, as independent republics.
Russian forces also currently control broad swathes of the southern Zaporizhzhia region and almost all of neighboring Kherson.
Polling ended at 4 p.m. local time on Sept. 27, after which votes will be counted and preliminary results announced later the same day, according to Russian election officials.
Most observers predict a wide margin of victory for the pro-Russia camp. Russian media has reported that 93 percent of ballots cast on the first day of polling in Zaporizhzhia favored the region’s integration with Russia.
In 2014, Ukraine’s Black Sea region of Crimea voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in a similar referendum. The results of that poll remain unrecognized by all but a handful of countries.
Russian officials have said that the four regions’ integration into the Russia Federation—should they vote in favor of it—could be officially ratified by the Russian state as early as Sept. 30.
EU Policy Fissures
Ukraine’s Western allies, meanwhile, have responded to what they describe as “sham” referendums by redoubling their support for Kyiv.On Sept. 26, the U.S. Congress approved an additional $12 billion in aid to Ukraine.
On the same day, the UK unveiled a raft of new sanctions, the targets of which reportedly include Russian officials involved in staging the polls.
The same day also saw renewed shows of support for Ukraine by The Netherlands, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte tweeting: “More weapons [for Ukraine], more sanctions, more isolation of Russia.”
Not all European leaders, however, appear to support such a hardline approach to the conflict, which recently entered its eighth month.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said that EU sanctions on Russia had “backfired” by driving up energy prices—to the detriment of Europe’s economy.
Orban also repeated calls for a ceasefire between the warring sides.
In a related development, a decision by Serbia to hold “foreign policy consultations” with Moscow has reportedly drawn the ire of Brussels, which expects EU aspirants to limit their contacts with Russia.
Field Developments
After retaking several positions in the northeastern Kharkiv region earlier this month, Ukrainian forces appear to have run up against much stiffer Russian resistance near the Oskil River.What’s more, seasonal rains expected next month are likely to significantly hinder Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations—at least in the short term.
Nevertheless, intermittent skirmishes and artillery exchanges persist along the 1,000-kilometer-long frontline, along with reports of fighting near the strategic towns of Bakhmut and Krasny Liman in Donetsk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has described the military situation in Donetsk as “particularly severe.”
“We are doing everything to contain enemy activity,” Zelenskiy said in a Sept. 26 video address. “This is our No. 1 goal right now, because Donbas is still the No. 1 goal for the occupiers.”
On Sept. 27, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the situation in Donbas—the primary focus of Russia’s “special military operation”—was expected to “change radically” after the polling.
“The situation will change radically from a legal perspective and from the perspective of international law, with all the relevant consequences for the purposes of protecting these regions,” Peskov told reporters.
A day earlier, Anatoly Vyborny, chairman of the Russian State Duma’s security committee, said that a “counter-terrorist operation” could be activated in regions that opt to join Russia.
“A counter-terrorist operation may be required in new regions of Russia to counter terrorist attacks from the Kiev authorities and the Ukrainian armed forces,” Vyborny was quoted as saying by TASS.
Whether or not the proposed “counter-terrorist operation” would supersede Moscow’s ongoing “special military operation”—and its rules of engagement—remains unclear.
