Referendums being held in four Russian-held regions of Ukraine entered their fourth day on Sept. 26, amid continued denunciations by Western nations that the move represents the de facto “annexation” of the territories by Russia.
The polling, which began on Sept. 23, will decide whether residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia want to remain in Ukraine or join the Russian Federation.
Polling is slated to end on Sept. 27.
On Sept. 25, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that 93 percent of ballots cast on the first day of the poll in Zaporizhzhia favored the region’s integration with Russia.
A day earlier, TASS cited a Russian lawmaker who said that the four provinces’ integration into the Russian Federation—should they vote in favor of it—could be formally ratified in less than a week.
“Taking into account the preliminary results of the referendums, and Russia’s readiness to acknowledge them, accession of the territories is likely to take place as early as Sept. 30,” Yaroslav Nilov was quoted as saying.
Kyiv and its Western allies have vowed not to recognize the results of the referendums, which they say are being held under Russian occupation.
Since the polling began, Ukrainian officials have asserted that residents of the four Russian-held regions were being coerced to vote in favor of integration with Russia. Moscow rejects claims of coercion, with Russia’s Central Election Commission reporting high voter turnout.
Russian forces and their local allies hold roughly 60 percent of Donetsk and almost all of Luhansk. Days before launching its “special military operation” in Ukraine on Feb. 24, Moscow recognized both regions as independent “people’s republics.”
Russian forces also control broad swaths of the southern Zaporizhzhia region and almost all of neighboring Kherson, including its regional capital.
‘Catastrophic Consequences’
On Sept. 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the U.N. General Assembly in New York that if the four regions opt to join Russia, they would receive the “full protection” of the Russian state.Interpreting the comment as a threat to use nuclear weapons, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned that such a step would draw a “decisive” response from the United States.
“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences,” Sullivan said in televised comments.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow would use “all available means” to protect Russian territory from perceived threats.
On Sept. 21, Putin announced the partial mobilization of the Russian armed forces—a move entailing the call-up of 300,000 experienced army reservists.
According to Western media reports, the call-up has led to a mass exodus from Russia by fighting-age men seeking to avoid conscription. The Kremlin, for its part, says the reports are exaggerated.
Developments in the Field
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has doubled down on promises to retake Ukrainian territory currently held by Russian forces.“We will definitely liberate our entire country, from Kherson to the Luhansk region, from Crimea to the Donetsk region,” he said via Telegram on Sept. 25.
The government in Kyiv insists it will never accept Russian occupation of its territory, while continuing to call on its Western allies to supply it with money and arms.
The first half of this month saw notable gains by Ukrainian forces, including the recapture of positions in the northeastern Kharkiv region. Russian military officials, however, dismiss the strategic importance of the counter-offensive.
The roughly 1,000-kilometer (622-mile) front line has remained stable in recent days, despite intermittent reports of skirmishes, artillery exchanges, and fierce fighting near Donetsk’s strategic town of Bakhmut.
In its daily briefing for Sept. 26, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed its forces had continued to strike positions in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian manpower and equipment.
The ministry also accused Ukrainian forces of shelling areas near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is located behind Russian lines in the region of the same name.
Kyiv has previously accused Russian forces of shelling the facility, which is Europe’s largest nuclear plant, raising concerns of potential nuclear disaster.
Mediation Moves
In comments to the British press on Sept. 25, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis that “preserves the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine.”The remark has prompted speculation that Borrell, who has consistently adopted a strong line vis-a-vis Moscow, may be softening his stance on the conflict.
Scattered reports have emerged in recent days of behind-the-scenes mediation efforts by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
On Sept. 21, the two countries helped broker a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine that saw the release of 215 captured Ukrainians and 55 captured Russians and pro-Russia Ukrainians.
Amid Western pressure, Ankara and Riyadh—both traditional U.S. allies—have maintained relatively good relations with Moscow.
