Ankara appears to have embraced a recent proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to transform Turkey into a regional hub for the distribution of Russian natural gas.
“We have agreed with Vladimir Putin to create a gas hub in our country, through which natural gas … can be delivered to Europe,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Oct. 19.
But some energy experts are skeptical of the plan, given the region’s complex political and economic circumstances.
“I doubt the proposal will yield practical results, at least in the short term,” Mehmet Ogutcu, head of the London Energy Club, a UK-based think tank, told The Epoch Times.
He added: “Putin is playing to Turkey’s dream of becoming an energy-transit hub—something to which it has long aspired.”
Pipeline Dreams
Last week, Putin met Erdogan in Kazakh capital Astana, where he reportedly floated the notion of turning Turkey into a hub for the transportation of Russian gas.At the meeting, Putin reportedly offered Russian help in building a distribution center in Turkey for the re-export of Russian gas to third countries, including those of the European Union.
Days later, Erdogan announced that Turkey and Russia had agreed to start work on a gas distribution center in Turkey’s northwestern Thrace region.
Turkey is already a major consumer of Russian gas, which accounts for almost half of its overall gas imports. Russian gas is transported to Turkey through the TurkStream pipeline, which stretches 930 kilometers (580 miles) under the Black Sea.
Ogutcu, for his part, questions the viability of the plan.
“Europe is facing unprecedented energy shortages, which will likely persist for the next two years,” he said. “But a new European energy architecture–one that doesn’t rely on Russian gas–is being put into place.”
This, he added, along with the European Union’s disinclination to buy Russian gas, “will diminish the likelihood of Turkey ever becoming a transit hub for Russian gas to Europe.”
Changing the Energy Map
Other observers, however, appear more optimistic about the initiative’s prospects.According to Sergei Kondratiev, an official at Russia’s Energy and Finance Institute, the proposed arrangement promises to “alter Europe’s energy map.”
Speaking to the Russian media, Kondratiev said if the project was brought to fruition, Turkey stood to become “the largest gas center in Europe, if not the only one.”
Proponents of the scheme predict the emergence of two distinct European energy markets. While northern Europe would buy more expensive liquefied gas from the United States and Norway, southern and central Europe would have access to much cheaper gas via Turkey.
Regardless of the plan’s ultimate viability, it appears to have drawn the ire of U.S. officialdom. Washington remains suspicious of what it sees as deepening ties between Moscow and Ankara, particularly in the energy field.
This week, assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the U.S. Treasury Department, visited Turkey. During the visit, she held closed-door discussions with several officials, including the governor of Turkey’s central bank.
The visit was widely perceived as a warning to Ankara, which, despite its longstanding NATO membership, has declined to support Western-led sanctions on Russia.
According to a Treasury Department statement, Rosenberg’s visit to Turkey “affirmed the importance of the close partnership between the United States and Turkey in addressing the risks caused by sanctions evasion and other illicit financial activities.”
Underwater Sabotage
Putin unveiled his ambitious proposal following a spate of attacks on Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic and Black seas.Last month, the Nord Stream pipeline, which links gas fields in Russia to Northern Europe, was intentionally breached in four different areas. The incidents prompted a flurry of recriminations, along with investigations by several European governments.
In a less widely reported incident, Russian authorities in mid-October arrested several people for allegedly trying to sabotage the TurkStream pipeline.
“Pipeline sabotage has become a main feature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Ogutcu said. “Shortly after the attacks on Nord Stream, Russia reports an attempt on TurkStream. I don’t think this is a coincidence.”
While the Kremlin has blamed Ukrainian operatives for the latter attack, which reportedly occurred on Russian territory, the perpetrators of the Nord Stream attack remain unknown—at least to the public.
On Oct. 14, Swedish authorities abruptly halted joint investigations into the Nord Stream incident, citing concerns over “national security.”
According to Ogutcu, there’s a “widespread belief” that the pipeline attacks were carried out by parties “seeking to cripple Russia’s ability to export gas.”
On Oct. 21, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the truth about the Nord Stream incident would “surprise” Europeans if it were ever made public. He did not elaborate.
‘Personal Chemistry’
When Russia began military operations in Ukraine on Feb. 24, Ankara, like its NATO allies, swiftly condemned the move. Turkey has also provided Ukraine with a steady supply of Bayraktar combat drones.Nevertheless, Ankara has steadfastly refrained from supporting Western-led sanctions on Russia, with which it shares an extensive trade relationship and a lengthy maritime border.
“Turkey doesn’t want to jeopardize its interests,” said Ogutcu, a former adviser to the Turkish Prime Ministry. “It wants balanced relations with Russia, the United States, the EU, and other powers.”
Turkey’s relatively good relations with Russia have allowed it to mediate between the two warring sides. In July, Ankara helped broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine that allowed the latter to resume grain shipments through the Black Sea.
“Turkey is the only country in the Western world able to talk to both sides,” Ogutcu said.
In August, Erdogan had an amicable meeting with Putin in Sochi, where the two leaders agreed to improve bilateral ties, especially in the trade and energy fields.
Since then, they have met two more times, prompting concerns in Western capitals that Turkey was drifting ever deeper into Moscow’s orbit. Last month, Erdogan went so far as to rebuke the West for its “provocation-based policies” vis-a-vis Russia.
“There’s a personal chemistry between Putin and Erdogan,” Ogutcu said. “Despite their differences—in Syria, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea—they can still sit down and talk to each other.”
Ogutcu contrasted this with Turkey’s often “tense relationship” with Brussels and Washington.
“Turkey hasn’t been embraced by the West,” he said. “There’s a general feeling in Turkey that its [Western] allies have failed to provide it with adequate support.”
On Oct. 21, the Kremlin reaffirmed its commitment to the joint energy project, but said “a number of details” still had to be worked out.
