ANKARA, Turkey—Turkey recently announced plans to launch a fresh military incursion into northern Syria with the stated aim of subduing Kurdish militants who it says threaten its security.
Both the United States and Russia have urged Ankara to stand down, and it remains unclear what form the planned operation will take.
“In the face of opposition from so many actors, both regional and international, the prospects of an imminent Turkish incursion appear increasingly dim,” Ilhan Uzgel, a Turkish political analyst, told The Epoch Times.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced plans to launch a cross-border offensive against the YPG, a Kurdish militant group operating in northern Syria.
“We will clear [the Syrian cities] Tel Rifaat and Manbij of terrorists ... before gradually proceeding into other regions,” Erdogan told lawmakers on June 1.
The YPG “People’s Protection Units” is the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey—like the United States and European Union—considers to be a terrorist group.
Based in northern Iraq, the PKK, which seeks to establish an independent Kurdish state, has carried out numerous attacks inside Turkey over the past four decades.
Since 2016, Turkey has carried out three major incursions into northern Syria, with which it shares a 900-kilometer-long border and where it still maintains a significant military presence.
Turkey seeks to establish a 30-kilometer-wide (19-mile-wide) “security zone” inside Syrian territory, with the stated aim of protecting its border—and troops—from attacks by the PKK and its Syrian offshoot.
According to Ankara, attacks on Turkish forces from YPG-held areas, especially near Manbij and Tel Rifaat, have increased in recent months.
“If threats are increasing, we’re obliged to take action,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in May.
Given the multiplicity of foreign actors involved in the Syria conflict, the political/military situation there is complex. While Turkey, a longstanding NATO member, supports armed groups opposed to the Syrian government, Russia and Iran both firmly back Damascus.
‘Geopolitical Balancing Act’
Turkish plans for an operation in Syria came up on June 7, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Cavusoglu in Ankara.“We understand Turkey’s security concerns,” Lavrov said after the meeting, going on to accuse the United States of “illegitimately feeding” certain forces in Syria—presumably a reference to the YPG.
According to professor Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, head of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies, Russia recognizes Turkey’s “legitimate grounds” for an operation in Syria.
Describing the Syrian theater as a “delicate geopolitical balancing act,” Erol told The Epoch Times that Turkey had “amply conveyed that it will not tolerate threats to its security.”
But on June 15, Russia appeared to change to course, with its envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, warning Turkey that a cross-border operation would be “unwise” at the present juncture.
Lavrentyev made the remarks from Kazakh capital Nur-Sultan, where he was holding talks with Turkish, Iranian, and Syrian officials as part of the ongoing Astana peace process.
“Russia has made its position clear,” said Uzgel, a former professor of international relations. “Moscow doesn’t want another Turkish operation in Syria when it’s deeply engaged in the Ukraine conflict.”
However, some commentators believe Ankara will pursue its foreign-policy goals regardless of Moscow’s disapproval.
“I don’t think Turkey really cares about what Russia says regarding the wisdom of a military operation in Syria,” Matthew Bryza, a former White House and senior State Department official, told The Epoch Times.
Facts on the Ground
However, Russia isn’t the only state involved in Syria to raise objections to another incursion by Turkey.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at a June 1 press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, also appeared to urge Turkey to reconsider the move.
“Any escalation in northern Syria is something we would oppose,” Blinken told reporters.
Only days earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry voiced similar sentiments.
“Iran opposes any military action ... on the territory of other countries,” it said in a statement.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also weighed in on the issue. In a June 10 interview, when asked about a possible Turkish incursion, he replied: “If conditions allow for direct military confrontation, we will not hesitate.”
Given the array of actors opposed to the move, Uzgel believes Turkey may drastically scale down its planned operation—or call it off altogether.
“Since Turkey has already committed itself, one possible exit strategy—meant to save face—would be to launch a smaller, more limited operation,” he said.
What’s more, he said, in light of facts on the ground, a full-scale operation—as envisioned by Erdogan—would carry with it enormous risks militarily.
“The Russians control areas around Manbij and Tal Rifaat, while the Syrian army is also reportedly deploying to the region,” Uzgel said. “Under such daunting circumstances, it seems highly unlikely that Turkey can meet its military objectives.”
