Toronto to Lose One Seat in Next Federal Election: Electoral Boundaries Commission’s Final Report

Nathan Phillips Square and Toronto City Hall in a file photo. Emma McIntyre/Getty Images

Despite objections from federal members of Parliament (MPs) and hundreds of submissions from the public, Toronto will lose one MP seat in the next election, according to the decision of a federal commission outlined in its final report tabled on July 20.

The final Report of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for the Province of Ontario, tabled in Parliament during summer recess, stated that electoral “overrepresentation in Toronto has emerged due to uneven population growth between Toronto and surrounding areas, which is expected to continue or increase in the future.”

The commission, which had tabled its original report in February, received 545 oral and written submissions concerning its proposed new boundaries for the City of Toronto, as first reported by Blacklock’s Reporter on July 21.

The Liberals still hold a majority in the city at present, having taken all 25 ridings in the 2021 federal election with 51 percent of the popular vote, the largest one in any major Canadian city.

Under the new plan, major changes will be confined to districts in the eastern half of Toronto, other districts will remain close to their existing boundaries, and some districts will be renamed.

After each census, the number of MPs and the representation of each province is adjusted according to the rules found in section 51 and 51A of the Constitution Act, 1867. The act requires a census to be taken every 10 years.

The chief electoral officer (CEO) is responsible for calculating the number of members of the House allotted to each province. Moreover, the calculation is mathematical, based on a representation formula found in section 51 of the Constitution Act, and the CEO exercises no discretion in the matter.

The work of readjusting electoral boundaries is carried out in each province by an independent and neutral three-member electoral boundaries commission. The mandate of these commissions is to consider and report on the division of their province into electoral districts, the description of the boundaries, and the name of each electoral district.

Objections

Seven MPs, whose ridings are in the eastern part of Toronto and Scarborough, filed submissions concerning the City of Toronto’s boundary changes proposed in the commission’s original report.

Michael Coteau (Don Valley East), Han Dong (Don Valley North), John McKay, (Scarborough—Guildwood), Robert Oliphant, (Don Valley West), and Salma Zahid (Scarborough Centre) objected to the proposed changes. Jean Yip (Scarborough—Agincourt) and Shaun Chen (Scarborough North) filed a joint submission supporting the proposed boundaries for Scarborough.

The commission said it heard several submissions opposing the reduction of the number of districts in Toronto. A large share argued that unique features of Toronto—namely its highly diverse population, its economic centrality, and its rapid growth—necessitated maintaining the current number of constituencies.

“In the Commission’s view, these arguments apply with equal or greater weight to constituencies surrounding Toronto, which are on average faster-growing, similarly diverse, and economically dynamic,” the commission said in its final report. “As a result, the Commission concluded that the districts in Toronto be reduced by one.”

Boundaries Shifted

The commission noted that some boundaries will shift, in part in order to address the wide population disparities among electoral districts within Toronto. Most of the changes occur in the eastern region of Toronto, in the City of Scarborough, historically described as lying to the east of Victoria Park Avenue.

In particular, the original report had proposed reducing the number of districts in Scarborough from six to five. As a result of the submissions, the commission decided instead to maintain six districts that are mostly based in Scarborough.

This will be done by merging the existing Don Valley East district into three neighbouring districts: Don Valley North; Don Valley West, which is being renamed Don Valley South; and Scarborough Centre, which will become Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East and will have its boundaries extended over Victoria Park Avenue to include parts of North York. Thus, the riding of Don Valley East will be eliminated. The original Scarborough—Agincourt will also have its western boundary moved west, past Victoria Park Avenue, to Highway 404

“By moving the boundaries of two Scarborough-based districts across Victoria Park Avenue, the loss of a district is shared between Scarborough and the rest of Toronto,” the report stated.

The commission said its final redistribution plan “constrains the major changes to those districts in the eastern half of the City and allows the remainder of the City to remain very close to the existing boundaries.”

It noted, “Due to uneven population growth in the province of Ontario and specifically within the Greater Toronto Area, the Commission maintains it is necessary to move a district to other areas of the Greater Toronto Area that, while equally diverse, are growing much faster than the City of Toronto.”

“The population of the City of Toronto only grew by 6.9 percent from 2011 to 2021, compared to 11.7 percent for the remainder of the province,” and maintaining 25 seats in Toronto would “unfairly impact other parts of Ontario.”

In a June 7 report, a number of Liberal MPs on the House Affairs Committee objected to the loss of a Toronto riding as well as the reduction in Northern Ontario from nine to eight ridings, but according to the commission, proposed no alternatives.