If the IPBES prediction is true, that implies a horrific extinction rate of about 25,000 to 30,000 species annually within the next 30 or 40 years.
The Numbers
Dr. Patrick Moore, the Greenpeace co-founder who has famously rejected the alarmist climate narrative, testified about the IPBES report to the U.S. House Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife on May 22. Dr. Moore’s statement rightly pushed back against the IPBES’s highly questionable numbers. Indeed, the report’s assertion that there are 6.2 million species on Earth that haven’t been cataloged or assigned a place in biological taxonomy yet is highly conjectural, if not preposterous.Who has a secret list of 6.2 million species that humans have spotted but biologists haven’t yet categorized? If they haven’t been identified, how can they be counted? That number either came from a highly speculative extrapolation or was plucked out of thin air.
The Reason
Whatever the precise number of extinctions is, conditions would have to change massively to have species start dying off at a dizzying rate of 20,000 or more per year in the next few decades.Climate change appears unlikely to trigger a huge wave of extinctions. Today’s temperature is several degrees centigrade cooler than the Bronze Age about 3,500 years ago, so any species that has been around for more than the last four millennia (presumably, that would be most species) should be able to tolerate a few more degrees of heat (if, indeed, such a temperature even happens, which is by no means certain).
Before you let the U.N. report make you feel guilty for letting fossil fuels enrich your life, you should understand that the one- or two-tenths of a degree difference that human activity may be responsible for isn’t significant enough to drastically revise the lineup of species on Earth.
The kinds of human activity that actually do jeopardize the survival of some animal species are the same three types of activity that produced the temporary increase in extinctions in the 16th to 19th centuries—overhunting, habitat destruction, and the human introduction (both intentional and accidental) of predators into new ecosystems.
Yes, human beings can be the agent by which a species goes extinct. But before you go beating up yourself, let’s put the phenomenon of extinction into perspective.
The Future
Instead of flagellating ourselves with undeserved guilt, we should celebrate the fact that, unlike any other species that has stood at the top of Earth’s food chain, humans have the capacity to understand the long-term implications of what we are doing. We can make conscious decisions to alter our behavior in attempts to preserve other species. While it lies beyond human ability to “freeze” the present constellation of species in place, and some species will die out no matter what we do, we may be able to save some species.The question then becomes an economic one—economic in the sense that we humans have to set priorities, make choices, and pay the costs of our actions. We can’t afford to pay the tens and hundreds of trillions of dollars that some greens want us to pay to try to shave a couple of tenths of a degree off the world’s temperature, but we can, if we want to, afford to take steps to preserve crucial natural habitats for the species we target for preservation.
In addition to obvious steps such as ceasing to use lakes and oceans as trash receptacles or outgrowing superstitions such as believing that rhinoceros horns enhance sexual pleasure, I can think of two ways in which most greens are currently waging massive warfare against endangered species.
The two modern fads of renewable energy and “organic” food both result in vast overconsumption of land, thereby unnecessarily shrinking the natural habitats of multiple species. The footprint of wind and solar energy production is far larger than the footprint of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants. And the organic food craze is even worse. If the whole world forsook contemporary agricultural techniques and returned to the “organic” methods of just a century ago, yields per acre would plummet so far that the amount of additional land required to maintain the current level of food production would be measured in the millions of square miles.
To repeat: We’re going to have to choose, people. Do you want to just talk the preservationist talk, or actually walk the walk? What do you value more: preserving certain species or eating organic food and using sun and wind power? As Bob Seger sang in the live version of “Beautiful Loser”: “You just can’t have it all.”
But remember the good news: (1) The U.N. scare story of mass species extinction isn’t true, so you don’t have to feel guilty. (2) Cheaper (e.g., cheaper food and cheaper energy) is not only better for humans, but is also better for wildlife—that is, sound economics is often compatible with sound ecology.