The Chinese communist regime is heading towards disintegration and the West needs to be prepared to manage the fallout, according to a leading China scholar.
CCP’s Disintegration
The CCP has started on a path of decline and is headed towards a similar fate as the Soviet Union when it collapsed in 1991, the professor said.The Chinese regime’s practice of forced organ harvesting—which results in an estimated tens of thousands of prisoners of conscience killed every year to supply its organ transplant market—and its treatment of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, made it “the most evil regime” since the Nazi Germany, Waldron said.
He recalled a conversation with an unidentified person, who is a close adviser to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“He said to me, Arthur, what the hell are we going to do? Everybody knows that this [political] system doesn’t work. We have reached a “si hu tong” (死胡同),” said Waldron said, explaining that the Chinese phrase means a “dead-end street.”
The adviser continued: “But what we don’t know is what is the next step to take because … there are mines everywhere and if we take a step, we may set off a terrible explosion.”
US Foreign Policy
“I say that Kissinger’s China policy, and Nixon’s China policy, is the single greatest failure of American foreign policy,” Waldron said.After over two decades of diplomatic isolation, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, under former President Richard Nixon, opened U.S. relations with the People’s Republic of China by flying to the Asian country in 1971.
At that time, China was under the rule of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong. Kissinger’s visit paved the way for Nixon to visit China in 1972, the first U.S. president to visit China while in office.
Under former President Jimmy Carter, the United States severed official ties with Taiwan and recognized Beijing in 1979.
The U.S. government’s decision to welcome China into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 also backfired, according to Waldron.
“We brought it [China] in as a way of trying to somehow coax them to be what Nixon and Kissinger dreamed they would be, which is to say they would learn from America and they start democratizing, but they didn’t do that,” Waldron said.
In fact, Waldron added, not only has China not become liberalized, the “party regime is tighter and better organized now than it was under Mao.”
“If they had to live on what they can get from their state-owned enterprises, which lose money, and from taxation, it would be a completely different situation,” Waldron said.
Waldron believed that the current administration should “adopt really as hardline as possible” stance towards China.
In terms of the future US. foreign policy regarding China, Waldron said the current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has a tough task at hand.
Hong Kong
In Hong Kong, the ongoing pro-democracy protests are close to entering its sixth month with no end in sight, as police continue to be accused of using heavy-handed tactics to quell the demonstrations and the city government and Beijing refuse to meet protesters’ demands, thus fueling public anger.“The whole origin of this [Hong Kong] crisis is disastrous decision making by the communist authorities, and then their failure to understand this and to let it protract,” Waldron said.
He explained that if Beijing had kept its promise made in 1997 and 1984, Hongkongers would only be concerned about heading to a polling place to vote every one or two years.
Hong Kong, the former British colony, was handed over to Beijing in 1997, after the two sides inked the 1984 Sino–British Joint Declaration. Under the treaty, the regime guaranteed that Hong Kong will retain its autonomy from the Chinese regime and its freedoms for 50 years.
Under the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, Hong Kong is considered a special entity, separate from China, in matters of trade, investments, and visas. However, the special treatment might come to an end soon after the U.S. government recently enacted the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which requires the secretary of state to annually review whether the city is “sufficiently autonomous” from China to justify its economic privileges with the United States.
“I think the special status is over. I hope not, but I think it is over,” Waldron said. “I think that the police have been compromised, gravely. The legal system is now under attack.”
“One of the features that we have seen and dramatized in Hong Kong is the close collaboration between the Chinese mafia or the triads and the [Hong Kong] government,” Waldron said.
When a government doesn’t want to listen to its citizens and wants them to stay in line, creating violence such as sending triads to attack people is an effective tactic because it would scare the population, he added.
“These 5 or 6 months ... taught everybody in Hong Kong that the Chinese Communists are dangerous, odious, and absolutely not to be trusted,” Waldron said.