After nearly six months of grueling state primaries, one presidential candidate will be formally confirmed as the GOP’s 2024 nominee during the Republican National Convention, to be held July 15–18, 2024, in Milwaukee.
But while there’s a little more than a year of campaigning between now and then, another far more pressing timeline is posing an existential challenge for as many as half of the 14 candidates in the race.
There’s about a month and a half left to qualify for the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, and campaigns for several lesser-known candidates are scrambling to meet required polling numbers and to collect the 40,000 individual campaign donors needed to make the stage.
At least one candidate, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, who only started his long-shot campaign in late June, has also balked at a third Republican National Committee (RNC) debate requirement: Participants must sign an oath pledging to support the party’s candidate regardless of who it is in the Nov. 5, 2024, election.
Other candidates, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and former President Donald Trump, have also either criticized or been noncommittal about signing the pledge.
And, of course, the viability of the whole 2024 RNC presidential debate program is in doubt in terms of its reach and appeal if Mr. Trump follows through with his threat to not participate in the Milwaukee debate or a second one tentatively set to be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.
“The only thing bigger than Trump’s mouth is his ego & neither will let him skip a debate,” Mr. Christie wrote.
Mr. Christie is likely to meet the criteria to make the Aug. 23 stage, as are Mr. Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Hailey, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
But as many as seven other candidates’ campaigns may fall short. On the bubble are the campaigns for Mr. Hutchinson, conservative talk show host Larry Elder, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.
Unlikely to qualify for the debate are Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, Texas entrepreneur Ryan Binkley, and Mr. Hurd, who has disqualified himself anyway by saying he won’t sign the loyalty pledge.
Failing to qualify for the first debate and gain the national exposure from being on that stage could be the death knell for several long-shot campaigns; several candidate are likely to withdraw from the race after that first debate and before the next federal campaign finance report filing deadline, on Oct. 1.
Polls, Donors, Questions
The RNC only released the debate qualifications on June 2 and breaks them down into three categories: polling, fundraising, and candidate pledge.The debate polling criteria require candidates to poll at 1 percent or above in three national polls, or 1 percent in two national polls and 1 percent in one of the four early Republican primary states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
Several campaigns say the criteria are confusing, especially a stipulation requiring them to verify that at least “800 registered likely Republican voters” participated in a survey before it can be accepted by the RNC.
Mr. Burgum’s and Mr. Suarez’s campaigns are among those that say the rule unfairly penalizes candidates who don’t have prominent name recognition beyond their states.
The polls must be conducted between July 1 and Aug. 21, two days before the first debate.
The fundraising qualification requires candidates to garner at least 40,000 “unique” donors, including at least 200 unique donors from 20 or more states and territories. Several candidates, such as Mr. Burgum and Mr. Johnson, could self-finance much of their campaigns but may struggle to capture the 40,000 individual donor mark.
The RNC and Chair Ronna McDaniel have defended the threshold requirements as a precursory “success metric” to weed out marginal campaigns and to avoid a repeat of 2016’s two-tiered, two-night debates.
Although the idea is to get all candidates on the same stage at the same time, the RNC has nevertheless scheduled a second night of debate for Aug. 24 in case there are too many to squeeze onto the stage.
Mr. Hutchinson and Mr. Elder are among candidates who insist that the polling and donor requirements are too burdensome this early in a campaign.
Taking the Vow
Only candidates who meet the polling and donor requirements will be required to sign the loyalty pledge by Aug. 21. They must also pledge to not participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debate for the remainder of the election cycle and to support a data-sharing agreement with the national party committee.Ms. McDaniel has repeatedly issued statements in support of requiring debate participants to sign the loyalty pledge.
In February, she said it was a “no-brainer” measure to ensure that members of the party “all come together and unite behind [the GOP] nominee to defeat Joe Biden and the Democrats.”
Mr. Hutchinson tried to convince the RNC to amend the pledge to say only that any candidate who doesn’t get the party nod vows not to run a third-party campaign.
Mr. Christie backed that proposal, which was rejected by the RNC.
Mr. Christie told Axios in March that there was “no way” he’d sign such a pledge because he wouldn’t want to support Mr. Trump and called it “a useless idea” during his CNN Town Hall, but he has since said that he might sign it to get on the debate stage and ignore it later.
Mr. DeSantis has said he’d sign the pledge as a way to “respect the process” and “people’s decisions.”
Mr. Pence said during his CNN Town Hall that he’d sign the pledge despite previous comments that Mr. Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach should disqualify him from the race.
Ms. Haley, Mr. Scott, Mr. Ramaswamy, Mr. Elder, Mr. Burgum, Mr. Suarez, and Mr. Johnson have all said they’d sign the pledge.
$1 Campaign Donation: Priceless
In an era of multimillion-dollar, nine-figure election campaigns, the race to garner 40,000 donors by Aug. 21 to get on the RNC’s debate stage has some candidates providing $1 donation buttons on their campaign and WinRed websites.On Mr. Johnson’s campaign’s WinRed website, a $1 donation will get you a copy of his book, “Two Cents to Save America.”
Mr. Ramaswamy, whose campaign reported having at least 30,000 donors despite that he was largely unknown before joining the GOP race, continues to run Facebook ads seeking $1 donations to “secure a prime spot” on the debate stage.
Mr. Elder, Mr. Hurd, and Mr. Burgum also have $1 donation ads on social media.
Mr. Burgum has the resources to self-fund, as he explained in a Grand Fork, North Dakota, stump stop, but he was using text messages to sell American flags for $1 as a Fourth of July donor drive.
Mr. Binkley, the Dallas-area businessman and nondenominational pastor who remains a relative unknown despite campaigning heavily in Iowa and New Hampshire, is also soliciting $1 donations from the “Binkley Brigade.”
“We need 40,000 unique donors to get in the debate. That means even $1 makes a huge difference. Click the donate button at Binkley2024.com,” his ads read.
The Suarez campaign is offering all sorts of deals for a buck.
Mr. Christie appears certain that he will qualify for the debate, and his campaign doesn’t look to be seeking $1 donations. Most of his social media posts contain something Mr. Trump has said on Truth Social or elsewhere about him with the former New Jersey governor and ally-turned-critic appearing unconcerned; he can be seen napping on a plane in several posts on Twitter.
“Living rent-free in Donald’s head,” many of Mr. Christie’s ads say. “Make me a permanent resident. Donate today.”
