Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season has so much at stake, with 17 of the 32 teams either having already locked up a playoff spot or still in contention for one. Even those already headed to the postseason—the Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers in the AFC, and the Lions, Vikings, Rams, Commanders, and Packers in the NFC—are still jockeying for position.
Meanwhile, there is another type of jockeying at the other end of the NFL standings, and that’s teams battling for the top overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Whoever has the worst record, when tiebreakers are taken into account, is guaranteed to be the first one on the clock when the draft rolls around on April 24.
Four teams are entering Week 18 in contention for the worst record and, thus, the best draft spot. Here is what each of them has to do—or not do—in the regular-season finale to lock in the top draft pick.
The Pats are in pole position to land the No. 1 pick; if the season were to end today and no Week 18 was played, they would draft first. To maintain that position, they simply have to lose to the Buffalo Bills, which has happened often lately, as the Patriots have lost six of their last seven to Buffalo. However, the Bills are expected to pull Josh Allen early and rest most of their starters, which gives New England a chance to prevail.
In order for the Titans to get the first pick, Tennessee must lose to the Houston Texans; plus, the Titans need the Patriots to defeat the Bills. Working against Tennessee is that not only did it beat Houston earlier this season, but the Texans are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC and, thus, have no incentive to play their starters. The Titans are one of four teams without a single player elected to the Pro Bowl roster, and none of the other three—Saints, Dolphins, Jets—are among those in contention for the top draft pick.
The Browns must lose to the Ravens on Saturday, and working in Cleveland’s favor is that Baltimore has the incentive of winning the AFC North with a victory. However, working against the Browns is that not only must they lose, but they also need the Patriots to defeat Buffalo, and they need the Titans to prevail over Houston. The Bills and Texans have nothing at play in Week 18, so even if the Browns take care of business with a loss—which is expected as they are 20-point underdogs in what is the biggest spread of the 2024 NFL season—they still need lots of help.
The Browns have had the top overall pick five times before, tied for the third-most ever, only behind the Colts and Rams, with seven each. Cleveland’s last No. 1 pick was Baker Mayfield in 2018, which was its second year in a row with the top pick as it drafted Myles Garrett first in 2017.
The Giants may have blown their chances for the top pick last week with their win over the Colts, as they were in pole position before that victory. They still have a chance but have the slimmest odds of the four teams still in contention. New York must lose to the Eagles—who are locked into their postseason seed—and they must have all of the above teams win. Philadelphia is already sitting Saquon Barkley, robbing him of the opportunity to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record—and Jalen Hurts (concussion) is unlikely to suit up as well.
