These Mid-Majors are Poised to Bust Brackets in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Every March Madness there’s a Cinderella, or two, and these lesser-known schools could make deep NCAA Tournament runs.

Augustas Marciulionis #3 of the Saint Mary's Gaels drives against Nolan Hickman #11 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first half of the championship game of the West Coast Conference men's basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas on March 11, 2025. Ethan Miller/Getty Images

The 2025 NCAA Tournament, like all previous editions of March Madness, will be contrasted by the tourney runs of big-name blue-blood programs and mid-majors.

The former has historically dominated the tournament, with six programs—UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, UConn, Duke, and Indiana—combining to win nearly half of all NCAA Tournaments.

However, it’s those smaller schools that get labeled as Cinderellas with deep March Madness runs, and they’re often the ones that captivate the attention of casual basketball fans.

There are several potential Cinderellas in the 2025 March Madness bracket, and these mid-majors are the ones who could end up busting your brackets.

Here are the teams from outside the major conferences you should know before filling out your NCAA Tournament brackets.

Gonzaga

Let’s start with the most obvious, and it seems almost unfair to still label the Zags as a mid-major. But they play in the West Coast Conference, which produced just two tourney bids, and Gonzaga is on a nearly unparalleled run.

It has made nine straight Sweet Sixteens, the second-longest streak in NCAA Tournament history. With its efficient offense, this year’s squad can certainly make it 10.

Gonzaga leads the nation in assists per game, ranks second in points per game, and ranks fourth in both field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels are led by two-time WCC Player of the Year, Augustas Marciulionis, who is the son of Hall of Famer Šarūnas Marčiulionis. He leads Saint Mary’s in both points (14.3) and assists (6.1), but it’s the Gaels defense that is its calling card.

Saint Mary’s kept 15 opponents below 60 points, and it allows the second-fewest 3-pointers per game in the country. As a 7-seed, the Gaels could face No. 2 Alabama in the second round, which would be a contrast of styles. Alabama pays at the fastest pace in college basketball and leads the nation with 91.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s plays at the sixth-lowest pace in Division I and allows the fifth-fewest points per game at 60.7.

San Diego State

The Aztecs have to escape the first four as an 11-seed to bust some brackets, but busting brackets is all they’ve done over the last few years. They are 7-2 over the last two NCAA Tournaments, with the only defeats coming to the eventual back-to-back champion, UConn Huskies.

This year’s squad knocked off 1-seed Houston in a neutral site, and it also has non-conference wins over Creighton and UC San Diego.

Wayne McKinney III #3 of the San Diego State Aztecs, dribbles past Bowen Born #13 of the Colorado State Rams, during the first half of a game at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University in San Diego on Jan. 14, 2025. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

SDSU has the best strength of schedule of any mid-major in the nation, and that tough road to March Madness could be rewarded with a deep tournament run.

New Mexico

There are over 5,000 college basketball players in Division I, and just one— UNM’s Donovan Dent—averages at least 20 points and six assists. He’s complemented by Nelly Junior Joseph, who averages 14 points and ranks third in the country with 11.2 rebounds.

But the Lobos’ defense makes them a potential Cinderella as a 10-seed. The team ranks among the top 20 nationally in blocks per game and forced turnovers. With victories over tourney teams like UCLA, VCU, Utah State, and others, the Lobos have displayed they can compete with anyone.

High Point

As No. 13 in the Midwest Region, High Point is the lowest-ranked team on this list. But at least one 13-seed has knocked off a 4-seed in 28 of the last 39 NCAA Tournaments. The Panthers are a diverse group, with players from eight different countries, but they go deep with an 11-man rotation.

Thus, if one or two players are having an off night, there are other options to turn to, but High Point rarely struggles offensively. They’ve reached 90 points eight times this season and had just six games all year in which they shot worse from the field than their opponent.

A first-round game versus No. 4 Purdue awaits, but the Boilermakers have been eliminated by double-digit seeds in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments.

VCU

Only Gonzaga has more NCAA tourney appearances since 1996-97 than VCU (14) amongst mid-major programs. The Rams have seven tourney wins as an 11-seed or lower, which is second-most in NCAA history. This VCU squad is a veteran group, with its five-leading scorers all seniors, and they also protect the rim, ranking sixth in college basketball with 5.5 blocks per night.

VCU is the only team in the nation to rank in the top 30 in steal rate, block rate, 2-point percentage allowed, and 3-point percentage allowed, as defense not only wins championships but also wins March Madness games.

Drake

The Bulldogs do something better than the other 363 Division I teams, and that’s preventing the opponent from scoring. They allow the fewest points in college basketball, giving up only 58.4 points per night, and they have more games limiting opponents under 50 points (seven) than they have allowing over 70 points (six).

With a 30-3 record, only Duke (31-3) has more victories than Drake, and the Bulldogs’ defense isn’t the only reason it racked up 30 wins. They rank 15^th amongst NCAA tourney teams in field goal percentage and have a coach with championship pedigree. First-year head coach, Ben McCollum, previously coached at Northwest Missouri State University, where he won four DII national championships.