The Biggest X-Factors for the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders in Landover, Md., on Dec. 22, 2024. Nick Wass/AP Photo

The National Football League’s version of the Final Four has arrived with the Conference Championship games on Sunday. The AFC’s top two seeds will square off, with the No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs playing host to the No. 2 Buffalo Bills, while the NFC’s No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles host the 7th-seed Washington Commanders. Every team that reaches this stage of the postseason is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and this year, all four have something else in common: For the first time in NFL history, the four Conference Championship teams each have zero turnovers during their playoff runs ahead of their respective title games.

Thus, giveaways aren’t something that could be deemed a separator between any of the teams. However, each squad does have a key element that could determine whether its season ends on Sunday or extends to Super Bowl Sunday on Feb. 9 in New Orleans. Here are the biggest X-factors that could determine the outcomes of the AFC and NFC Title Games.

Kansas City Chiefs

Much has been made about Kansas City, and specifically Patrick Mahomes, benefitting from penalties in regard to the protection of the star quarterback. Whether or not those flags have been justified, what can’t be ignored is Kansas City’s discipline when it comes to drawing the ire of referees. The Chiefs enter the AFC Championship Game with 11 straight playoff outings with fewer penalties than their opponents, which is the longest streak by any team in the last 30 years.

Winning the turnover battle is, obviously, essential to success, but winning the penalty battle is nearly as important. Hidden yardage often comes in the form of penalty yardage, and in addition to that 11-game playoff streak for KC, it was also disciplined during the 2024 regular season. Just three teams committed fewer penalties than its 94, while opponents committed 107 penalties versus the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s opponents committed 127 penalties—the third-most in the NFL—so Kansas City prevailing, again, with the penalty battle will be essential to its chances of making its third straight Super Bowl appearance.

Buffalo Bills

There’s a saying that football games are won in the trenches, but games can often be decided by a kicker. Tyler Bass has been Buffalo’s kicker for the past five seasons, and he’s been money—going 17 for 17 on game-tying/go-ahead FGAs in the second half/OT in his regular-season career. However, we’re no longer in the regular season, and Bass missed his one prior FGA under those circumstances in the postseason, and that just happened to come against the Chiefs in the 2023 Divisional Round.

This year, Bass’ FG percentage of 82.8 is tied for the second-lowest mark of his career, while his 92.2 percentage on XPAs is the worst of his career. His percentages have historically dropped off when the playoffs come around, as he’s converted 84.5 percent of FGAs and 96.4 percent of XPAs in his regular-season career but 77.3 percent of FGAs and 91.2 percent of XPAs in his postseason career. So, it may not be Josh Allen, James Cook, Von Miller, or Damar Hamlin who decides Buffalo’s fate as much as Tyler Bass.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philly’s X-factor stems from its Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams, and that’s the health of Jalen Hurts. He briefly left the game with a leg injury, and his performance indicated he wasn’t completely healthy. With limited mobility, Hurts was sacked seven times, which was a new career-high—regular or postseason—and was four more takedowns than in any of his previous six playoff games. It’s also noteworthy to mention that Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter the last time he faced Washington, which ended up being a 36–33 Commanders’ victory in Week 16.

Hurts and the Eagles also don’t get the benefit of an extra day of rest for the NFC Title Game, unlike the Commanders who played last Saturday. Philadelphia is 12–0 over its last dozen games in which Hurts has started and finished, but he’s facing one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL. The Commanders blitzed on 31.5 percent of dropbacks in the regular season, the fifth-highest amount, so Hurts’ physical ability to move around can’t be discounted.

Washington Commanders

People often look at points scored and yards gained when it comes to explaining offensive productivity. But, converting in the key areas also shouldn’t be overlooked, and that’s what Washington does best. It ranks sixth in the NFL in both third-down conversion percentage and in red zone scoring, however, it takes the cake when it comes to fourth downs. The Commanders are 26 of 32 on fourth-down attempts this regular plus postseason, and that 81.3 percentage is not only the best this year, it is the fourth-best rate of any team since 1991. The 150 points the team has scored after a fourth-down conversion are the most by any team on record, ever.

Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat abilities make Washington so dangerous in these situations, and Philadelphia may not be equipped to stop the Commanders. While the Eagles have top-five rankings in both third-down defense and red zone defense, they allowed the most (19) fourth-down conversions in the regular season. The phrase “fortune favors the bold” has been applicable to the Commanders all year, so one shouldn’t expect them to veer away from their tendency to be aggressive on fourth downs come Sunday.