There’s no fooling Buck Showalter.
The reasons for the rise in base stealing over the past two MLB seasons, to some, may not be obvious. But how teams are succeeding on the base paths isn’t a mystery to the former four-time Manager of the Year.
Keep in mind: When you seek Showalter’s opinion, be prepared for a lengthy answer. Find a comfortable chair. His mind refuses to leave out any details. With 22 seasons calling the shots from MLB dugouts with the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and most recently back in “Fun City” with the Mets in Queens, Showalter qualifies as a one-man rules committee.
This past weekend, while waiting for a flight taking him home to Tarrant County in Northern Texas, last season’s Mets’ bench boss found a quiet table at a restaurant at Newark Liberty International Airport. Even while waiting for his early lunch to be brought to his table, and with 30 minutes before scheduled boarding, Showalter stepped up to the starting line of discussing baseball. After seemingly taking one deep breath and after the topic of base stealing was presented, Showalter was off and running.
“That’s easy,” Showalter told The Epoch Times on why bases are being swiped at rates that have not seemed so for many years. “They’ve [MLB] taken away all the weapons from the pitchers. One of the biggest weapons a pitcher has is holding the ball. When a pitcher has his rhythm disrupted, men on base have an advantage.”
In 2023, MLB rule changes led to 3,503 stolen bases, the highest total since the 1987 season and more than a 41 percent increase from the 2002 season. Perhaps most tellingly, the success rate last season was 80 percent, emphasizing the importance of a running game in a team’s overall game plan.
Showalter, who rejoined MLB Network this season as an on-air analyst, commutes to the TV studios in Secaucus, NJ. When the red light comes on above the studio cameras, the former skipper begins to educate his audiences, completing deep dives into the hot topics surrounding MLB. He can also turn in a commanding performance at an airport restaurant.
He is asked: Could the increased base size from 15 square inches to 18 inches be a major factor in more swipes on the base paths? Not according to Showalter.
“No. Not at all. The bases look like pizza boxes.”
Anything but boring and everything about educating, Showalter steers his hypothesis back to the increased challenges pitchers are facing. With runners on base, pitchers have 18 seconds to get the pitch off before being penalized.
“Unless you are willing to go real fast to the plate, a lot of guys’ are looking at the clocks, and they see time ticking down. So, the pitcher has to hurry, and the runner on the base gets an advantage; a big jump in running,” said Showalter, the only manager to win Manager of the Year with four different franchises.
The pitch timer has not only contributed to an increase in stolen bases but has also reduced the average MLB game by about 26 minutes from spring training in 2022. A pitcher can now only throw over to first base two times in an attempt to hold the runner closer to the bag per plate appearance by a player in the batter’s box.
Stating that stolen bases don’t mean as much as they used to, as far as the totals collected by individual players, Showalter wants it known that they are still very much a weapon to score runs.
“Just about anyone could steal a base now,” proclaims Showalter. “When I see totals, I think of how many bases Rickey Henderson would have stolen with these rules. I could give you 20 guys, Vince Coleman, and Willie McGee; they could have stolen more bases than they did with these rules.”
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz leads MLB with 59 swipes as of the start of the week, and Milwaukee Brewers’ Brice Turang is second with 33 stolen bags.
It’s nearly time for Showalter to be at his gate for boarding, but the former manager continues with his thorough analysis of base stealing. There will be no questions unanswered when he is done.
“Teams are still chasing a philosophy of power, of bat speed. Look at the amounts of pitchouts. They are non-existent. Why not put the clock somewhere else, from being near home plate, so runners can’t see them? They’re looking at the clock, and they know the pitcher has to go to the plate.”
With his 1,700-plus managerial wins, Showalter has the credibility to keep his audience’s attention. He says stolen bases have been devalued in recent years from an individual player standpoint. When a player enters the clubhouse after a game in which he has swiped two bases, most likely, the response is not a big deal. Showalter points to players a year ago who would never have attempted to steal one base and now have 10 to their credit. He attributes their success in running not to skill, but because they are able to cheat. A quicker take-off from first gives the runners an edge over clock-conscious hurlers.
Catchers who have a respectful throwing arm, says Showalter, are experiencing difficulty in throwing out runners. Keeping a close eye on pitchers as opposed to men on base can offer the best remedy to slowing the running game.
