Hot Pennant Races Could Influence Cy Young Voting

Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches in the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park on in Detroit, Mich., May 29, 2024. Rick Osentoski/Getty Images

As we get closer to September and pennant races around Major League Baseball heat up, the competition for individual awards is getting intense. On the pitching mounds across the leagues, aces are trying to establish themselves as the best in their league and worthy of this year’s Cy Young Awards.

There are so many factors that could influence who ultimately wins the top honor given to pitchers each year over the final weeks of the regular season, including the health of the pitchers whose resumes are worthy of consideration. But there are a handful of players who have established themselves as individuals who the voters will have to consider when putting together their ballots.

American League Favorites

When Gerrit Cole missed a big part of the first half of the regular season, the race to win the American League Cy Young Award became an open race. And plenty of pitchers have thrown their hats in the ring for consideration.

Every indication is that the American League Cy Young Award is Tarik Skubal’s to lose at this point. He leads all pitchers with 5.8 WAR and enters Monday tied for the Major League lead with 14 wins despite his Detroit Tigers being three games under .500 and 11.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central.

But he will have a lot of pressure to hang onto the top spot on many ballots from Baltimore’s ace, Corbin Burnes. He won the National League Cy Young Award with Milwaukee in 2021 when he led Major League Baseball with a 2.43 ERA. In his first season in the American League, he has a 12–5 record with a 3.10 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 153.2 innings pitched. If the Orioles win the American League East, that could boost his profile further.

Corbin Burnes #39 of the Baltimore Orioles smiles at Marcus Semien #2 of the Texas Rangers after the third inning at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on July 19, 2024. Tim Heitman/Getty Images

Cole Ragans has an interesting case in Kansas City. He’s third in the American League in WAR among pitchers (4.0) and is pitching for a team in a playoff chase. Ragans was an all-star for the first time this season and has 174 strikeouts in 147.1 innings pitched. He could lose some votes to veteran Seth Lugo, however. Lugo is 13–7 with a 3.04 ERA.

After a disappointing first season in New York, Carlos Rodón has bounced back and pitched like the player the Yankees thought they were getting when they signed him. He’s 13–8 and has been fairly consistent on a Yankees pitching staff that has seen its ups and downs throughout the season.

National League Favorites

If Skubal is the favorite in the American League, the National League is a wide-open race with plenty of pitchers to consider.

Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene leads NL pitchers in WAR (5.5—second in MLB behind only Skubal) but he went on the injured list this weekend because of elbow soreness. And the Reds have been underwhelming as a team this year.

In Philadelphia, Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher on the best team in the National League. He’s 12–5 with a 2.72 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 148.2 innings pitched. He was the runner-up to Burnes in 2021 and might be able to win the award this year with a strong finish.

Chris Sale in Atlanta might be the healthy leader right now. He has a 4.5 WAR and is tied with Skubal for the MLB lead with 14 wins (Sale is 14–3). He also leads Major League Baseball with 187 strikeouts in 140.2 innings and leads the NL with a 2.62 ERA.

Hunter Greene #21 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the third inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on August 13, 2024. Jason Mowry/Getty Images

There are two other pitchers who might have their candidacy improved because they have a no-hitter on their resumes. Dylan Cease threw his gem on July 25, the second no-hitter in Padres’ history. Like Burnes, Cease switched leagues via trade this past winter and has been as good as advertised. He’s 12–9 and has 186 strikeouts in 148.1 innings pitched. If the Padres can get into the postseason, he has a shot.

Blake Snell threw his no-hitter on Aug. 2 against the Reds. His resume is limited because of injury; he’s only thrown 76 innings entering the new week. But he has 101 strikeouts in those 76 innings. And Snell has something no other active pitcher can claim: a Cy Young Award in both the American and National League at home. He won the Cy Young Award in San Diego last year.

The final candidate we have to consider is Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes. He didn’t start the season in the big leagues, but his 4.0 WAR is already tied for third among all NL pitchers. He’s 7–2 with 121 strikeouts in 98 innings pitched and started the All-Star Game for the National League. There is some talk about the Pirates easing him back down the stretch with the playoffs out of range and some financial concerns in play. But he’s been the real deal since arriving in the majors.