Favorites for Major League Baseball’s MVP Awards Have Some Competition

Shohei Ohtani (17) of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a two-run home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third inning at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Aug. 9, 2024. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

As the baseball calendar nears September, we’re now roughly six weeks away from the end of the regular season. Playoff races are heating up, teams are struggling to find their groove, and individuals are elevating their performances to help their teams find another level.

Looking ahead to postseason individual awards, there are two players who have garnered the most attention for their respective league Most Valuable Player (MVP) awards. But the races are far from being a closed book at this point.

Let’s look at who might be in play for the MVP awards in the American and National Leagues.

American League MVP Favorites

There’s one clear frontrunner for the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award this year. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge remains the dominant force in the entire league—indeed, all of baseball. He leads all of MLB in offensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR), 8.9 according to Baseball Reference. He also leads all of MLB in on-base percentage (.466), slugging (.709), and on-base plus slugging (OPS) at 1.175. He also leads all of baseball in total bases (305).

But there remain three American League players who aren’t allowing him to run away with the award this year.

In Kansas City, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. emerged as a viable candidate early in the season and continues to be right on Judge’s heels. He’s second in baseball in WAR (8.1), offensive WAR (7.4), and total bases (302). However, he’s the MLB leader in batting average (.352), which is 19 points higher than Judge. Witt is one of only three players in all of baseball with an OPS over 1.000 as well.

The third candidate for the AL MVP is the third player with an OPS over 1.000, and he happens to be Judge’s teammate (and protection in the Yankees’ lineup). Juan Soto is marvelous, and he’s going to get paid this winter. He currently ranks third in MLB in WAR (7.4), second in on-base percentage (.436), and sixth in batting average (.305). He’s fourth in baseball in total bases (268).

What might help Witt in the conversation between him and the two Yankees is he plays a premium position (shortstop) and he plays it exceptionally well.

Aaron Judge (99) of the New York Yankees runs the bases after hitting a three-run home run, his 300th career home run, during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Ill., on Aug. 14, 2024. Justin Casterline/Getty Images

A fourth player who could receive votes for the American League MVP this season is Baltimore shortstop Gunnar Henderson. He’s tied with Soto in WAR (7.4), has a slight edge in offensive WAR (6.9 to Soto’s 6.8), and his 266 total bases rank sixth in baseball (fourth in the American League). Again, playing a premium position should help his candidacy.

The big factor that might play into how votes are distributed that doesn’t specifically point to individual performance is how the standings play out at the end of the regular season. Right now, the Yankees and Orioles are battling in a heated battle for the top spot in the AL East. If the Orioles can win the division, and Henderson plays a big part in their success down the stretch, he might steal votes from the two Yankees. It’s also noteworthy that the Yankees might split votes amongst themselves as well.

Witt’s Royals are currently third in the AL Central and sit in the third and final wild card spot in the American League. If they can run down the Twins for second in the division and clinch a playoff berth, that could help Witt’s candidacy as well.

National League MVP Favorites

Just as is the case in the AL, the National League has one clear frontrunner for their Most Valuable Player this season. Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani has been a revelation in his first season in the National League. His 5.9 offensive WAR is 1.0 more than any player in the National League and ranks fifth in all of baseball. He’s also first in the National League with a .984 OPS and ranks third in all of baseball with 288 total bases (behind only Judge and Witt).

There are some other incredibly worthy candidates this season in the National League, and Ohtani being limited to only hitting this season could complicate voters’ decisions.

Maybe Ohtani’s greatest pressure will come from Marcell Ozuna. The Braves’ outfielder ranks second in the National League with a 160 Adjusted OPS+ while leadings the NL with 90 runs batted in. He’s second in the National League with 267 total bases and leads NL qualifiers with a .302 batting average.

Marcell Ozuna (20) of the Atlanta Braves celebrates as he rounds the bases after a solo home run during the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 3, 2024. Casey Sykes/Getty Images

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte ranks third in the NL in total bases (243) and he has a slight edge on Ohtani in total WAR (6.0 to Ohtani’s 5.9).

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has produced 5.1 WAR to date, which ranks fourth in the National League.

Ohtani being limited to hitting only this year because he’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery and Ozuna being a mediocre defensive player for Atlanta could help both Marte and Lindor, who play premium defensive positions well. Lindor has a good case for the NL Gold Glove Award at shortstop this year.

When we consider the standings again as a potential factor, the Dodgers are winning the NL West. Marte’s Diamondbacks are tied with San Diego for second in the division and the lead in the wild card standings. Ozuna’s Braves are clinging to the final wild card spot, just one game ahead of Lindor’s Mets.