The quarterfinals begin with the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve and continue with the Peach, Rose, and Sugar bowls on New Year’s Day.
After a week-and-a-half off, the College Football Playoff will resume Dec. 31 with the first quarterfinal matchup, followed by the three remaining games New Year’s Day. The first round of the first 12-team CFP saw nothing but lopsided contests, but that’s been the norm in the history of the CFP. Entering the 2024 quarterfinals, the average margin of victory in a CFP game is 18.7 points. The top eight seeds remain in this year’s edition, so we’ll see if that leads to more competitive games.
Here’s a look at each of the four contests.
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State – Fiesta Bowl
One team’s Fiesta Bowl perfection will end in this game as Penn State is 7-0 all-time in the bowl, while Boise is 3-0. This will be the first-ever meeting between the programs, and it could allow PSU, in part, to rewrite its narrative of not winning big games. The Nittany Lions have lost 15 of their last 16 versus AP Top 10 teams, while Coach James Franklin’s 5-14 record versus Top 15 teams is the worst by any head coach in FBS history (min. 15 games). He’s hoping his explosive offense and stout defense help improve that mark as Penn State thrives with both connecting on big plays and preventing them. The defense has allowed just 4.4 yards per play, the
fifth-fewest in FBS, while the offense ranks eighth with 6.6 yards per play.
Boise is led by Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, whose chase of college football history is a subplot. Jeanty is
132 rushing yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season record of 2,628 yards set in 1988. With Jeanty leading the way, and with an offense that has the lowest turnover percentage in the nation, the Broncos are as good as anyone on that side of the ball. However, they weren’t quite as potent as the season went on. After averaging 43.6 points over their first 10 games, Boise State averaged just 24 over its last three. The team will also have to defy history in this game as 10.5-point underdogs; double-digit dogs are 0-9 in CFP history.
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas – Peach Bowl
This is a matchup of current Big 12 champion ASU and the 2023 Big 12 champion in Texas, with the Longhorns winning the lone previous meeting between the programs in 2007. Arizona State relies heavily on running back Cam Skattebo, who has three straight games with 150-plus scrimmage yards and three-plus touchdowns, making him the
first FBS player in a decade to accomplish that feat. His quarterback, Sam Leavitt, has three-plus passing touchdowns in six of his last eight games, but he will be without wideout Jordyn Tyson (collarbone), who tops the Sun Devils in catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs.
That makes ASU’s passing game against Texas’ secondary the key matchup in this game, as Texas allows just 5.4 yards per pass attempt, the fewest in the nation. The Longhorns’ 20 defensive interceptions are second-most in the country, and with Tyson’s absence, no ASU wideout has more than 19 catches or 320 yards. Texas’ 29 takeaways are tied for the most in college football, but it won’t have the fondest memories in stepping back into Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is the host. The Longhorns just played there in the SEC Championship Game and were defeated in overtime by Georgia.
Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State – Rose Bowl
The lone rematch of the CFP quarterfinals, Oregon defeated Ohio State, 32-31, on Oct. 12, and Oregon is trying to become the
first team since 1894 (Wittenberg) to beat the Buckeyes twice in a season. These two programs also played in the inaugural CFP Championship Game in 2014, which Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes are 9-2 all-time versus the Ducks. This matchup will pit two transfer quarterbacks against each other, and they are
among the most precise passers in the nation. OSU’s Will Howard ranks second with a 73.18 percent completion percentage, while UO’s Dillon Gabriel ranks third at 73.15 percent.
With both offenses extremely efficient, defense could decide the game, and it appears that’s where Ohio State has the advantage. It
leads all of college football in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game and red-zone defense. But special teams have been a thorn in the Buckeyes’ side all year. Two missed field goals played a role in their loss to Michigan, and OSU has converted just 69.2 percent of its field goal attempts, which ranks 97
th out of 134 FBS teams. Meanwhile, Oregon kicker Atticus Sappington is 11 for 11 on attempts under 44 yards this season and has made his last 22 attempts under 40 yards.
Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame – Sugar Bowl
Georgia owns a 3-0 all-time record versus the Irish, and the Bulldogs also have a seven-game win streak in bowl/CFP games. What the Dawgs lack is experience at quarterback, as Gunner Stockton will make his first career start, while his counterpart, Riley Leonard, has 34 starts under his belt. Leonard has more total touchdowns (75) in his career than Stockton has pass attempts (51), and the Georgia quarterback will also have to deal with an elite pass defense. The Fighting Irish
lead the NCAA in opposing completion percentage (49.6 percent), and they have nearly twice as many interceptions (19) as passing scores allowed (11).
However, UGA is 12-1 over its last 13 neutral-site games, while Notre Dame is just 3-23 versus Top 5 ranked teams since 1999. The Irish also lost defensive lineman Rylie Mills (knee) in the CFP’s first round, leaving Notre Dame with no other player with more than 4.0 sacks. That could make Stockton’s job easier as he’s yet to throw a touchdown this season, but does have one interception, across 32 pass attempts.
